Ollanta Humala was eulogized by the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, during his short visit to that country. At a press conference in Caracas, President Chavez saluted Humala and called him a “Quixote.” Chavez was referring to the uprising led by Humala and a group of soldiers in October 2000. Humala’s trip to Venezuela coincided with the official visit of the newly elected president of Bolivia, Evo Morales. Humala attended the official ceremonies involving Morales and Chavez held in the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. President Morales also saluted Humala, saying that he is convinced popular movements will triumph in the upcoming elections in Peru. Humala was in Venezuela at the invitation of Chavez’s Fifth Republic Movement (MVR). For his part, Humala emphasized the importance of the processes of change that have occurred in Venezuela and Argentina, and are now being initiated in Bolivia. He described the “new face of Latin America” as “nationalist, indigenista, and leftist.”
Source: Correo, January 4, 2006
Author: Michael Ha
There is a new electronic publication from Palestra, the Portal de Asuntos Publicos de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru (PUCP), it is called Observatorio Electoral.
According to El Comercio, it seems likely…
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Interview with Gonzalo Aguirre
Source: La Republica, January 2, 2006
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Interviews with Antauro Humala
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Caudillos in Peruvian Politics
By Jean Pierre Chabot, Sprott School of Business
Carleton University, Ottawa
December 30, 2005
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 30, 2005
In an interview published in La Primera, Lourdes Flores Nano was asked a hard question. The interviewer, Matilde Soto, started by saying: “A shadow follows you that suggests you are the candidate of the entrepreneurial elite, yet you opted to select Arturo Woodman as your first vice president in your electoral slate.” She then threw her punch: “Did you put him there to assure financing from the Romero group?” This is a really tough question, because Flores has to demonstrate that she has the ability to reach beyond the confines of her traditional party base; that she is not beholden to big business; and that she is not the candidate of the traditional white, right-wing, urban establishment.
Her answer was as follows: “Arturo Woodman represents an example of a man who is committed to the service of the community in each and every area in which he has attempted to offer his services. I am convinced that we will be the government and that Woodman will be a fundamental element of support in themes like work with the police, citizen security, social policy, sports…”
The question and the answer underscore the biggest vulnerability in Flores’ campaign. She either does not understand the question or hopes she can evade it. The choice of Woodman as vice president links her to one of the most powerful economic groups in Peru. This will win her no votes outside San Isidro and Miraflores–in fact, it will cost her votes she can ill-afford to lose (on December 27 we reported polls showing a decline in support for Flores that we believe is a consequence of the selection of Woodman). What is more, Woodman is linked directly to banker Dionisio Romero, who was captured on more than one “Vladivideo.” Vladivideos are videos from the archives kept by Vladimiro Montesinos, Fujimori’s corrupt intelligence chief.
Inadvertently, Flores may have made corruption a central issue in the campaign. Her best move now? She could drop Woodman like a hot potato, but this would make her look vulnerable and weak. She could mount a spirited defense of Woodman, but this would only draw more attention to the issue (“no, I disagree with Woodman’s views on corruption” is not an easy position to defend). Or she can ignore the problem and hope it goes away. These are unpleasant options, the consequence of a bad choice.
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 30, 2005
Arturo Woodman is the former head of CONFIEP, the nation’s main business association; as such, he is one of the most powerful businessmen in Peru. He has worked closely with Dionisio Romero, reputed to be the most powerful entrepreneur, though now in retirement. Romero was disgraced by his questionable links with Vladimiro Montesinos, Fujimori’s sinister spymaster.
According to Ángel Páez, “Woodman was not only closely involved with the corrupt regime of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), but is also a close associate of banker Dionisio Romero, who faced charges for trafficking of influences.” Woodman, he says, “personally brought Romero” to the offices of Montesinos. Romero not only met with Vladimiro Montesinos on a number of occasions, he also helped Montesinos to flee Peru providing a private jet to Montesinos after Fujimori announced his resignation in 2000.
Woodman claims to have severed all links with Romero and his financial group. In what might be read as a implicit defense of Romero, however, he has been critical of anti-corruption efforts in Peru. He argues no one should be charged with influence trafficking just because they met someone influential. Dionisio Romero is facing charges for influence peddling arising in part from his meetings with Montesinos. In response, judge Luis G. Vargas Valdivia has argued that Peru has taken unprecedented steps to improve its anti-corruption controls, but he also insists that the controls are not excessive. Not everyone who met with Montesinos has been charged with criminal activity he says, with reference to Woodman.
Ángel Páez quotes Ronald Gamarra, a former prosecutor and researcher at the Legal Defense Institute, who says: “Someone who has had such close ties to Montesinos should abstain from participating in politics, let alone run for vice president, no matter what party he belongs to.” Not the sort of ringing endorsement of a vice presidential candidate that a front-running presidential candidate might want.
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich says there are phoney polls circulating these days. We should all take note. Alvarez Rodrich has a solid reputation as an analyst, and these are deeply troubling accusations. While shocking, such claims are not entirely surprising; even the best polls are often conducted in a manner that is less than fully transparent. That said, there appear to be particular problems with the IDICE poll. The story we quoted from La Republica raised questions at about the remarkably large size of the sample. Other survey researchers have also raised questions.
According to an analyst with Tuesta y Consultores, ONPE (the public body that manages elections in Peru) needs to do more to enforce rules concerning electoral publicity. To ensure equity, ONPE should contact the media and make public the rates charged to ensure all parties are charged the same.
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DATUM Poll, December 16-19, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 29, 2005
DATUM Internacional. Estudio de Opinion Publica Electoral: 8va encuesta nacional de opinion publica 2005 – Download file
Sample: 1144 interviews between December 16-19, 2005 in Metropolitan Lima, Callao, Cusco, Ancash, Loreto, Piura, Arequipa, Junin, Ayacucho, La Libertad, Puno y Lambayeque. Margin of error: +/-3.0%.
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 28, 2005
Luis Iberico, a member of congress for the Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM), and president of the defense committee, has proposed a selective amnesty for members of the armed forces accused of human rights abuses. The president of the Constitutional Tribunal, Víctor García Toma, has warned that such an amnesty could be struck down by the courts. In his view, congress should not encroach on the administration of justice, or presume to decide who is guilty or innocent. An amnesty would be an abdication by the state of its responsibility to uphold the rule of law.
The issues raised in this interview are similar to those we noted in an earlier posting on Martha Chavez returns to congress. Some of Peru’s most distinguished legislators appear to have a poor understanding of the principles underpinning a separation of powers system. If members of congress want to uphold the rule of law, they should stop trying to act as judges. If they want to improve the judiciary, they should provide it with adequate funding.
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Happy New Year 2006
Source: Peru 21. December 27, 2005
Muñecos del ex presidente Alberto Fujimori, vestido de presidiario, y del mandatario Alejandro Toledo, se han comenzado a vender en las calles de Lima. Los monigotes están listos para ser quemados en el año nuevo. (Foto: AFP)
Indicó a RPP Noticias que el estar detenido en Chile no le impide al ex-presidente Fujimori postular a la presidencia de la República o al Parlamento, pues no lo priva de esos derechos.
Según la Sala Penal Nacional de Terrorismo salieron en libertad 1,763 presos y no los casi 10,000 que mencionó el Presidente del Consejo de Ministros, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.
Source: La República. December 27, 2005
Source: La República, Dic 27 2005
Sample: 4,950 households in 37 provinces between December 19-23, 2005.
The study was supported by Universidad Particular Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%
En entrevista exclusiva concedida al diario La Primera, el dirigente de Sendero Luminoso, Óscar Ramírez Durand “Feliciano”, se ofreció como facilitador para un diálogo entre el Gobierno y sus ex-camaradas en la selva.
Se dio a conocer la relación de candidatos para presidir el Tribunal de Honor del Pacto Ético Electoral (PEE) que se encargará de vigilar que se cumplan los compromisos suscritos por los partidos políticos:
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski exaggerated in his interview with Cadena Peruana de Noticias when he claimed that 10,000 former terrorists had been released from prison. According to La Republica, the number of people pardoned or released from jail, who were serving time on sentences involving terrorist activities (either as part of the Shining Path or MRTA) is closer to 4,000 since 1997.
In 1997:
– 3,878 prisoners for terrorism were registered;
– 3,144 of these prisoners were sentenced;
– 3,225 pardon requests were presented.
According to Peruvian newspapers, a political party posted a paid advertisement in a local newspaper to recruit potential congressional candidates. The notice called for potential applicants with vision who are, among other things, Peruvians between the age of 25 and 35.
Fernando Tuesta criticizes the lax application of the law on political parties, especially with respect to the internal selection of presidential candidates.
According to Tuesta there are 32 parties running 4,000 candidates for congress.
In his book, entitled “Representación política: las reglas también cuentan”, Tuesta calls for a semi-presidential system, with a prime minister elected by congress with the power to appoint cabinet ministers. He also calls for a return to bicameralism and a larger number of seats. Fujimori reduced the size of congress with the specious argument that members of congress did nothing and cost too much money.
Source: El Comercio December 26, 2005
Jorge Bazo
December 26, 2005
Según un informe del diario El Comercio, desde el 19 de junio del 2004 hasta el 14 de setiembre del 2005, la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) ha denunciado diversos casos de falsificación de firmas ante las distintas fiscalías penales. Hasta el momento han sido denunciadas 17 agrupaciones inscritas, o en proceso de inscripción, ante el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE), presentando un total de 120,541 firmas falsas, la mayoría realizadas con el mismo puño.
Primer Informe de Observación Electoral, Consejo Directivo, Asociación Civil Transparencia, December 21, 2005.
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Presidential Slates
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Drugs, Politics and Violence
Increasingly analysts are calling attention to the danger of the “Colombianization” of Peru. The growth of drug cultivation and trafficking in Peru in recent years has not only provided the financial resources for a possible resurgence of the Shining Path, it has also put money into the political system that could well find its way into the election campaigns of some parties and candidates.
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Shining Path Presence in Peru
Source: La Republica, December 25, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 24, 2005
Sample: 700 people in Lima and Callao. Download file
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Shining Path Resurgence
President Alejandro Toledo declared a 60-day state of emergency in the cities of Huanuco, San Martin and Ucayali. The state of emergency was declared on the evening of December 21, 2005, following a Shining Path ambush in Aucuayacu, Huanuco, on December 20. Eight police were killed in the ambush, the second significant attack in recent weeks. An earlier ambush in Palmapampa on December 5 resulted in the death of five police officers.
The ambush in Aucuayacu is being attributed to “comrade Artermio,” one of the few Shining Path leaders who predates the capture of Abimael Guzman. The earlier attack was attributed to “comrade Alipio,” of the “Proseguir” faction of the Shining Path.
The attacks indicate that the Shining Path remains capable of inflicting casualties on the armed forces. Analysts claim the military has not received the funding necessary to contain the Shining Path in rural areas, especially the coca-producing jungle areas.
Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski claimed that as many as 10,000 “terrorists” have been released from prison in recent years, and many are presumed to have returned to subversive activities. He also estimates that coca production has increased by as much as 15 to 20 percent.
The Shining Path took responsibility for the ambush in Aucayacu and called for a boycott of the 2006 general election.
Source: La Republica, December 21, 2005
This 22-page report focuses specifically on information implicating Fujimori in five criminal cases currently pending in Peru, including human rights violations as well as acts of corruption that undermined Peru’s democratic institutions.
Human Rights Watch Report, December 2005, Volume 17, No. 6(B)
Presunción Fundada: Pruebas que comprometen a Fujimori
Probable Cause: Evidence Implicating Fujimori
Source: La Republica, December 21, 2005
Sample: 1200 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao.
The table above compares the results from the Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad de Ingeniería (UNI)and the ones from La Catolica’ survey that has a smaller universe (607 people).
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ONPE: Revista Elecciones #5
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The Evo Effect
Source: LaUltima.com
The victory of Evo Morales in Bolivia has produced diverse reactions in Peru. Does the victory of the cocalero candidate in Bolivia augur well for Ollanta Humala?
For some, Morales is quite different from Humala. Bolivia has a powerful indigenous movement, and Morales has been struggling for power for years.
Others argue that Morales’ victory is being used to scare the middle class with the prospect that Humala represents the same sort of radical change in Peru.
Still others argue that the Morales victory could cut both ways, depending on whether his ascent to power produces positive or negative effects in Bolivia over the next few months.
Visit Altiplano Politico. There is a posting on Bolivia Electoral.
Interesting El Comercio interview with Peruvian Premier Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. According to the Premier, and former Economy and Finance Minister, if Ollanta Humala wins next year’s general elections, he will not be able to replicate Hugo Chavez’ model given that Peru does not have Venezuela’s oil reserves. The Premier also argues the international community may not welcome Humala’s nationalistic policies.
As of 12:00 EST, Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores’ alliance, and Justicia Nacional have not yet defined their presidential slates.
Source: El Comercio, December 19, 2005
Instituto de Opinion Publica de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru. Reporte de Opinion Publica, Diciembre 2005.
Sample: 605 men and women, 18-70 years old, in 37 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao (not including beach resorts–balnearios). Survey was conducted between December 9-11, 2005.
Download file
Source: El Comercio, December 16, 2005
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Interview with Julio Cotler
This interview was posted in Peru Economico in August 2005. It is as relevant today as it was then.