Archive for May, 2006
Pedro Francke Editorial on NGO Opposition to FTA
Formal Convocation of Election Awaits Congressional Vote Count
Slow progress is being made on the congressional vote count. The JNE still has not called for ballots to be printed for the second round presidential election. In fact, the election has not been called, legally, and cannot be called until 100 percent of all votes–presidential and parliamentary–are counted.
El “Efecto Evo Morales” y su repercusión en la región andina
Source: La República, 08 de mayo del 2006
La nacionalización de los hidrocarburos modificará relaciones económicas y políticas en la región.
Strategies of Alan García & Ollanta Humala
Whereas Alan Garcia seeks to capitalize on the perception that Ollanta Humala is too confrontational, Humala is seeking to cast Garcia as an ally of traditional politicians.
Garcia did not mention Humala directly in his most recent campaign stop in Ventanilla, but he emphasized the importance of toleration and said that he seeks to avoid racial confrontation. He said 30 percent of the population voted for a change in the political system. APRA has got the message and will act on it. Garcia’s current campaign theme is “responsible change.”
Humala said that traditional politicians are aligning themselves behind Garcia, and he criticized Toledo and Garcia for forming a “pact of impunity.” Santiago Pedraglio said last night on the television program Rueda de Prensa that “Toledo is to Garcia what Chavez is to Humala.”
Interview with Ernesto De la Jara
In this interview Ernesto De la Jara argues that Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia face serious charges of human rights violations; from a human rights perspective this is an unappetizing choice for voters on June 4.
Second Round Election: Campaigns Take Shape
Maxwell A. Cameron and Fabiola Bazo
May 7, 2006
As the second round campaign begins in earnest, the strategies as well as the strengths and vulnerabilities of the candidate are beginning to take shape. The JNE issued a resolution “indicating” the date is June 4. Oddly, as Fernando Tuesta notes, it does not “convoke” the election. Whatever the case may be, the election will be on June 4 and there are two contenders, Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia, both of whom are beginning to exhibit their strategies.
Ollanta Humala will use to his advantage the newness of his movement and the fact tht it is less turgid with long-standing components. The “olla” (pot, the nationalist’s symbol) still has room for new ingredients before it becomes saturated. In an interview, Humala says the winner of the election will be the party that builds the broadest social alliances. He is offering the Ministry of Labor to the labor movement; the administration of social programs to the Catholic Church; and he has attracted two members of the Truth Commission to his camp to work on reparations.
Humala is behind Garcia in the struggle for votes in Lima. Once again violence happened on the hustings when paper and plastic bottles were thrown at Ollanta Humala when he appeared in the Gamarra commercial district. This is the second hostile reaction from people in a popular market in Lima. The first time was in La Parada during the first round.
Alan Garcia recognizes that the election is a battle in which the north and south of Peru are divided. He says that APRA built its base in the mestizo (that is, mixed blooded) north, and has historically had problems in the ethnically pure indigenous south. APRA’s great enemies and competitors have all had southern bases: Sanchez Cerro, Odria, Fujimori, and—most recently—Toledo. But he reminds people that he won 75 percent of the vote in Puno in 1985. Garcia is also reaching out and seeking to make alliances or win endorsements—with Valentin Paniagua, Pastor Humberto Lay and Cardenal Juan Luis Cipriani (Humala has also met with the latter two).
Carlos Reyna warns that the support of anti-Humala political leaders, especially those associated with Lourdes Flores, could actually hurt Garcia by casting him as a member of the establishment. In a similar vein, Toledo’s recent embrace of APRA, which is being studied by election authorities, could hurt the APRA candidate. Polls say Toledo’s approval ratings are on the rise, but he remains reviled by many. He is certainly not popular enough to help Garcia with an endorsement. While Apristas lament the executive bear hug, Humala is denouncing a putative Toledo-Garcia pact. Percy Medina opines that Toledo’s statements did not violate election law.
A similar vulnerability arises from the tendency of old APRA leaders to reemerge as the possibility of an APRA government begins to take shape. The appearance in the media of names and faces associated with the 1985-1990 government can only backfire on APRA. Part of the APRA strategy of alliance-making is based on the rebooting of the famous “Social Front,” an agglomeration of social forces prepared to work with APRA. This has attracted first round presidential candidates Natale Amprimo and Ricardo Wong.
A worker in Chinatown rests on a dolly proclaiming “Alan President” and “Chinese Wong with Alan”
Photos: M.A. Cameron
Humala: Peru’s Main Labor Confederation Can Choose the Next Labor Minister
Ollanta Humala promised that, if he is elected, the main labor confederation of Peru–the CGTP (General Confederation of Peruvian Workers)–can decide who will be the next minister of labor. For years the APRA party controlled the labor movement. Under the military government of Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1975), control over most of the labor movement shifted from APRA to the Communist Party.
Venezuela: Peru Escalated the Conflict by Going to OAS
The Venezuelan minister of foreign affairs, Alí Rodríguez, claims Peru escalated the conflict between the two nations by going to the Organization of American States and making “false” accusations. For this reason, Venezuela has recalled its ambassador.
Garcia Sayan: Geopolitical Significance of 2nd Round
Diego Garcia Sayan says that second round election has broad geopolitical significance. Peru will either be part of the latest version of Latin American populism with Chavez and Morales, or part of a more pragmatic social democratic option represented by Lula.
Parties need to defend the vote before criticizing ONPE
Juan Paredes Castro says that Humala and Flores need to ask themselves why they did not have scrutineers at the polls where they claim to have lost votes. They should not blame others (ONPE, for example) for their own inability to defend their votes.
Toledo meddles in campaign
Toledo has made a speech in Trujillo, which he called the “heart of the APRA,” in which he said the election is a decision between “democracy and authoritarianism.” The statement was made following the signing of a decree initiating the third stage of a public works project. Toledo’s interference in the election campaign has been criticized by Ollanta Humala.
Siguiendo a Humala
Hugo Passarello Luna
5 de Mayo del 2006- Santa Anita, Lima
Fotos: H. Passarello Luna
Es el segundo día de campaña con vistas a la segunda vuelta. Los partidarios de Ollanta Humala empiezan temprano sus preparativos desde el Comando Nacional de Campaña en San Borja. El ambiente es primero de desconfianza y secreto hasta que me permiten pasar a una sala de espera para, justamente, esperar por dos horas que todos están listos para partir hacia Santa Anita. Mientras tanto, se me indica que no se esta permitido tomar fotos en el comité (o mi cámara será decomisada) y las tres puertas que acceden a la sala de espera sólo son accesibles para personal autorizado. Solamente puedo entrar o salir. En la sala hay una pequeña televisión donde esta hablando Toledo, pero a nadie le interesa. El día esta comenzando y hay muchas cosas que hacer.
A medida que pasan las horas, más y más gente llega y mi presencia es lentamente aceptada como la de un partidario más.
Finalmente llega mi contacto en el comité, alguien al que todos llaman el Coronel y con una simple orden le indica a un militante que sea mi guía durante el día. Yo deberé estar siempre junto a él (no tanto por desconfianza hacia mí sino por la rápida dinámica, que pronto descubriré, tiene este grupo de militantes).
Son las 11am (dos horas después de mi cita) y ya estamos listos para hacer una caminata por todo el distrito de Santa Anita, un área humilde de Lima.
En menos de media hora llegamos hasta nuestro primer ‘punto’ (así llaman a cada estación que visitaremos). Ya hay gente, banderas, afiches, altavoces y oradores (todos hablando al mismo tiempo). ‘Ya llega, ya llega’ se le dice a la expectante centena de curiosos y simpatizantes.
Lo que sigue se va a repetir por las próximas 4 horas cada vez que Humala visita un lugar. Todo es simplemente un flash.
De la nada y con considerable velocidad, aparecen muchos vehículos. Llegan Humala, su director de campaña y varios medios (hasta ahora no presentes en el lugar). La gente se dispara hacia el candidato, pétalos de rosas caen de todos lados, empujones, cameras, gritos, algarabía, dos bailarines haciendo el baile de las tijeras, besos y un desconcierto general. ¿Para donde ir?
Finalmente Humala se sube a un improvisado escenario (en verdad un banco de madera donde sólo él cabe) y comienza a hablar. No empiezo ni a escuchar que esta diciendo cuando alguien me toca el hombro. Es uno de los militantes que me está acompañando: “Nos vamos” “¿Ya?” pienso yo. Corremos hacia el automóvil y cuando me doy vuelta para ver a Humala, me doy cuenta que ni él esta ahí. Lo veo corriendo hacia la cima del cerro seguido por toda la gente del lugar. Es hora de ir hacia el otro punto y preparar el terreno.
Visitamos alrededor de seis bases (o centros políticos) y la misma escena se repita una y otra vez. Todo muy rápido, todo pura euforia.
En los cortos discursos que Humala hizo apuntó sus comentarios hacia el ‘maquillaje’ que algunos (por Alan García) esta usando. ‘La gente no se olvida’ declaró aludiendo al anterior y no muy exitoso gobierno de García. Mas tarde intentó enfatizar su plan de gobierno dejando en claro que el evitara que unos pocos tengo mucho y que no se olvidara del sufrimiento de los pobladores de los asentamientos humanos. Incluso hizo referencia a la importancia del deporte en el desarrollo de los jóvenes. Luego tomó una pelota, la pateó y convenientemente, hizo un gol.
Si bien los números no son lo que los organizadores estaban esperando, la gente que apareció lo hizo con alegría, pasión y una enorme curiosidad. Santa Anita parece prometer muchos votos para Ollanta y el UPP. Lo sabremos luego del 4 de junio.
Hugo Passarello Luna is a research assistant and student in the University of British Columbia.
Más imágenes
Ollanta Humala, Reservists, and the Rural Vote
Maxwell A. Cameron
May 5, 2006
The success of Ollanta Humala in rural Peru can be attributed in part to his ability to activate a sector of the population that has been ignored by mainstream political parties—reservists, or conscripts who have served in the military and can be called up for active duty. They constitute a dynamic–and respected–element within many rural communities. Another reason for the success of Humala’s campaign is that he has not only made promises that resonate with some sectors of the rural population but also that he has made his candidacy a felt presence in rural areas in ways that the other parties have not. These are a couple of the main conclusions of a workshop organized by the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP).
The discussion was led off by Victor Caballero, who noted that reservists have always been present in Peruvian society but they have recently acquired an unprecedented degree of militancy and assertiveness. Reservists tend to be of peasant stock, young males who come from campesino communities and have formed part of the armed forces for a period of time. Their identity has been deeply shaped by military service and the imprint is a lasting one; it is an identity shaped by the barracks, the promotion, and arms. As Julio Cotler noted, rural Peru is no longer a static society, but a very mobile and dynamic one. Reservists are good examples of “cholos,” those who come from a provincial or rural background but who have traveled, studied (in military schools), and who have broader horizons and social ambitions.
Reservists may be veterans of internal or external conflicts—or both. Many served in peasant self-defense squads, or fought in the war with Ecuador. They tend to see themselves as successful, though they may also be frustrated by social exclusion. The sense of success comes from having expelled the Shining Path from rural communities or winning on the battlefield with Ecuador. The notion of having fought with honor plays a big role in this sense of efficacy and identity.
Although reservists have been around forever, they have only become a political force in this election, which is also the first election in which members of the military have been given the vote. Humala has said that the other political parties in Peru neglected the reservists and that has allowed his group to capture their allegiance, but there is more to his appeal among the servicemen. For one thing, Humala’s message resonates with reservists who see themselves as patriots and heroes. For another, Humala is one of them. And, as Cecilia Blondet noted, Ollanta Humala and his brother Antauro have spent 4 or 5 years mobilizing this population and circulating the news bulletin “Ollanta.” (The recent schism between Ollanta and Antauro appears not to be an issue for the rural voter). Humala likes to talk about having created a political party and taking it to victory in 10 months. But the organizational effort is deeper than this might suggest.
What has made Humala so popular among rural voters more broadly? The support of reservists is natural, but what accounts for the massive support he received in Ayacucho and the decline of support for the mainstream parties relative to 2001? Part of the answer is that Humala has made promises that resonate. Javier Torres mentioned that Humala’s congressional candidates symbolize important sectors of the rural society—the coca producers, the church and clubs of mothers, and non-governmental organizations which are thick on the ground in Ayacucho. The coca producing peasants have joined Humala’s ranks en masse in response to his promise to legalize coca production and end forcible eradication.
Another reason for support for Humala is the desire to punish traditional politicians. The sectors that support Humala were strongly supportive of Alberto Fujimori in the past. They benefited from the commitment of the Fujimori government to bring public works and social programs into their communities, and they have been frustrated by the bureaucratic red tape and inertia in the current administration, and by the abandonment of these works. There is a mood of ire that expresses itself in the hope that Humala “will punish” those in Lima and the government, as well as traditional parties (read APRA and Unidad Nacional). A intimation of this mood came with the rejection of the process of formation of new regions as part of the decentralization effort in November of 2005. In part, this rejection reflected the perception that larger governing units were being created that would be more remote and unresponsive.
Another source of identification with Humala is the fact that he is seen as “like us,” an ordinary guy. In addition, according to one participant in the round table, many rural voters supported Humala for two simple reasons. First, the candidate or someone from his movement took the time to explain the nationalist movement’s goals in face-to-face interaction. Second, many voters follow the advice of peasant communities and the advice was invariable to vote for Humala. Humala’s efforts to make direct contact with the voters contrasted with the lack of connection that rural voters felt with Lourdes Flores. Nobody from her group spent much time in Ayacucho.
The other point that Javier Torres made had to do with the media. The rural population watches the television mainly for entertainment. The radio has more weight for news because its broadcasts are typically from the perspective of the locality. Above all, however, it is the word of mouth communication that matters the most.
John Crabtree: Bolivia Stakes its Claim
Frente Regional de Ayacucho Criticizes Carlos Tapia
The Frente Regional de Ayacucho is a group that does not form part of Ollanta Humala’s movement in Ayacucho. More radical than the nationalist movement, the FRA nonetheless views Humala as preferable to the alternatives in Ayacucho. In this statement it offers harsh words for Carlos Tapia, an old rival, who has recently joined forces with Humala.
U de Lima Barometro, Lima & Callao, April 29-30, 2006: Peruvians Assess Andean Leaders
Survey conducted by the Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima. Sample: 631 men and women interviewed in 40 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Margin of error: +/-3.98% . Download file
Nicolas Maduro: Peruvian Press Racist
Source: Correo, 05 de mayo del 2006
Nicolas Maduro, president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, has accused the Peruvian press of racism for depicting Hugo Chavez as a gorilla. Some Peruvian newspapers doctor images or use collages to reinforce front-page headlines. This is not done by El Comerio or Gestion. However, even reputable papers like Peru.21 and La Primera routinely edit images for effect. In this case, the press gave the Chavez government reason to object.
Nicolás Maduro, presidente del Parlamento venezolano acusó a los medios de prensa peruana de representar a la oligarquía limeña racista, por compartir sus mismas expresiones racistas al comparar al presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez con un gorila.
Source: Peru 21, 29 de abril del 2006
Datum National Poll Ap. 29 – May 01: Alan García first with 43%
Source: La República, 05 de mayo del 2006
La encuesta de Datum Internacional S.A., fue financiada y contratada por Frecuencia Latina. El sondeo se realizó entre el 29 de abril y el 1 de mayo a 1,118 personas de 12 departamentos del país bajo el método de la entrevista cara a cara. Download file
Read also: Peru Election: Second Run-off Survey
Energy Summit is Good News for Bolivia
Maxwell A. Cameron and Jorge Bazo
May 5, 2006.
An energy summit in Puerto Iguazú in northern Argentina brought good news to the government of Evo Morales in Bolivia. Néstor Kirchner, Inacio Lula da Silva, Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales signed a document in which they agreed to guarantee the supply of gas between the four countries and to cooperate to set the price. Lula said that Brazil recognizes that Bolivia can define its sovereignty over its natural resources. Chavez also came away from the meeting satisfied. He said the nationalization of oil and gas in Bolivia has not generated major tensions.
Bolivia’s neighbors need gas, and this is a key reason for their willingness to cooperate. Peru’s president Alejandro Toledo said he would never nationalize a natural resource industry, but he may find himself out of step with the region when he attends a meeting of the European Community with Latin American nations in Vienna on May 12.
In his column in La Republica, Mirko Lauer notes the moderation in the response of the affected countries. This moderation may be eroded as opposition forces within countries like Spain push for a more aggressive reaction. However, as Lauer notes, what is at stake here is less the direct economic affects of the measure and more the larger ideological context. According to Lauer, the evolution of events in Bolivia is key for countries like Peru where there are strong movements in public opinion interested in renegotiating the rules governing transnational corporations, and leaders who have offered to alter these rules.
More broadly, the nationalization of an industry in a Latin American country alters the political agenda in the region. It widens the scope of policy options that are perceived as feasible. After two decades of neoliberalism, the issue of control over natural resources and the possibility of expropriation of foreign assets is back on the table.
Resumen: Tras reunirse en la Cumbre Energética realizada en Puerto Iguazú, al norte de Argentina, Néstor Kirchner, Inacio Lula da Silva, Hugo Chávez y Evo Morales firmaron un documento en el que se garantiza preservar la provisión del gas y discutir bilateral y racionalmente su precio. En Lima, el presidente del Perú, Alejandro Toledo, afirmó que aunque respetaba las decisiones que tomaban estos 4 jefes de Estado, él nunca nacionalizaría un recurso natural como el gas.
For another view, see Annette Hester.
Conversations (not a pact) between Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua
Talks have been held between Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua. These are conversations not a pact, but they show Garcia’s interest in picking up Paniagua’s voters by means of a friendly gesture toward the leader of the Frente de Centro. The main group within the Frente, Accion Popular, could well decide to endorse Garcia’s candidacy in a national congress to be held on May 20.
Garcia is also refusing to congratulate Ollanta Humala for winning the first round. Such “theatrics” he says are inappropriate. All the first round has settled is who are the top two candidates, and congratulations should be reserved for the result of the second round.
La ONPE, el JNE y la Cancillería rechazan cuestionamiento de Unidad Nacional al proceso electoral
La puesta en duda de Lourdes Flores Nano de la transparencia de elecciones, generó las reacciones de total rechazo por parte de Magdalena Chu, Jefa de la ONPE; de Enrique Mendoza, presidente del JNE y de Óscar Maúrtua de Romaña, ministro de Relaciones Exteriores.
The insinuation of fraud by Lourdes Flores has been roundly rejected by the head of ONPE, the JNE, and the Chancellry. Reaction by editorialists has been very negative. The overall impression is that Flores has made allegations that are unclear–and hence it is hard to determine whether they have any basis–and which could be harmful to the electoral process.
Read also: Perder es parte de competir
No gané, ah, entonces hubo fraude
Ollanta Humala on the Hustings
Source: La República, 05 de mayo del 2006
Humala was on the campaign trail yesterday, working his way through crowds in Ate Vitarte on the periphery of Lima. He repeated familiar campaign messages: that Alan Garcia should apologize to Peruvians for his performance in government in 1985-1990, and that President Alejandro Toledo should not leave Peru after July 28 but remain to face charges in the courts.
En su primer día de campaña buscando ganar votos en la capital, el candidato de Unión por el Perú (UPP), recorrió once asentamientos humanos de Ate Vitarte, en Lima. Afirmó que Alan García debe de dar una disculpa por su gobierno anterior antes de buscar un nuevo voto de confianza del electorado, además de conminar al presidente del Perú, Alejandro Toledo, a no dejar el país cuando acabe su mandato pues tiene que responder ante la justicia por su gestión.
Caretas: “Humala & Chavez Could be the Best Thing for Garcia in a Long Time”
The Possible Redemption of Alan Garcia
Nationalization of Gas!
ONPE Presidential Results at 100%
Source: La República, 04 de mayo del 2006
La ONPE anunció oficialmente que Ollanta Humala y Alan García disputarán la segunda vuelta el 4 de junio.
Peru Takes Dispute with Venezuela to Permanent Council of the OAS
May 3: Peru took the dispute with Venezuela to the Organization of American States this morning, vigorously complaining that Venezuela has violated the principle of non-intervention. The Peruvian ambassador to the OAS requested permission to show a video to sustain his position. The Venezuelan ambassador objected, and the chair sided with Venezuela over the objections of other countries including El Salvador and Canada.
The event was webcast live by the OAS.
May 4: We have added local coverage on this issue
UPDATED: Flores Reluctantly Concedes
May 03: Flores conceded today, but questioned the transparency of the elections. She thanked Xavier Barron for his efforts to as her legal advisor. She regretted the annulment of some returns and complained about the voter scrutiny, particularly the fact that once the votes are counted all that matters is the forms on which the results are recorded. She said that she is not certain that she lost in the ballot box but rather was eliminated in the voter scrutiny process in the voting booths.
May 04: Hemos añadido la cobertura de los medios de prensa escrita.
UPDATED: Ollanta Humala Interviewed by Rosa Maria Palacios
May 03: In an interview with Rosa Maria Palacios in Prensa Libre, Ollanta Humala characterized the Venezuelan regime under Hugo Chavez as democratic because it has met international standards upheld by organizations like the Carter Center. At the same time, he rejected efforts to link his candidacy with Hugo Chavez and the Venezuelan government. He acknowledged that he has travelled to Venezuela on 5 or 6 occasions, but also said he has visited the leaders of Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil.
Humala reiterated that he has never abused the human rights of anyone, but refused to enter into details of his service in the Madre Mia base in 1992. He said “etnocacerismo” (which he now dissociates with his movement) arose in part as a result of the rejection by sectors within the military of strategic doctrines designed by the French and the US. US and French counter-insurgency doctrines were based on wars not fought on the national territory, and hence tended to treat the population without due respect. Humala also said that reservists have played a key role in his movement because other political forces failed to recognize the importance of this sector of the population.
Humala also called attention to the recent statements by Lourdes Flores in which she said that she is not sure that Unidad Nacional lost in the ballot boxes but rather in the scrutiny. Although, Humala said, if he made similar comments he would be called undemocratic, he nonetheless believes that his party lost votes where they did not have scrutineers. He asked electoral authorities to take steps to address this problem.
May 04: Hemos añadido la cobertura de los medios de prensa escrita.
APRA Seeking Support from Restauración Nacional
According to La Primera, APRA may be seeking the support from Humberto Lay’s party for the second round. Jorge Del Castillo denies meting with Lay and discussing politics. Lay said a meeting has taken place and commented on the “good relations” between APRA and his party. APRA has provided Restauracion nacional with its own electoral documentation (actas) to compare ballot counting.
UPDATED: NYT editorial
Maxwell A. Cameron
May 3, 2006
This is a puzzling editorial in a number of ways. First, there are factual mistakes which are surprising given the authoritative source. The election is not on May 28, for example. It has just been called for June 4. Second, Toledo’s approval rating is not in the single digits, it is at 21 percent according to the last DATUM poll. Admittedly, that is pretty low, but is there any need to exaggerate his unpopularity?
The characterization of Humala as “a military man whose family advocates the shooting of gays, Jews and Chilean investors” seems a little harsh. The use of firing squads is not something that Humala has himself endorsed. Who among us does not have family members who believe crazy things? Equally harsh is the suggestion that of the populist leaders who have come to power in the Andes, Humala would be the “most dangerous yet.” In what sense?
To call the second round an “appalling choice” is also pretty harsh. A colleague of mine commented that there seems to be a missing paragraph here explaining just why Garcia is such an “appalling” option and why he “would make things worse.” I would accept the description of Garcia’s last government, but the question that many Peruvians are grappling with is whether there is reason to assume Garcia and APRA would govern as badly today. The Times offers no basis for judgment.
The final line would seem to be unobjectionable: “There could be no clearer warning than this of the importance of economic development that includes the poor.”
Read also:
The New York Times’ sorry duo
Parecidos, pero no iguales
May 04: Hemos añadido la cobertura y comentarios de los medios de prensa escrita.
Francisco Durand: Elections & Money. The Logic of Mutual Attraction
Durand, Francisco. Elecciones y dinero: la lógica de la atracción mutua, Revista Coyuntura: Analisis economico y social de actualidad, CISEPA-PUCP, mayo 2006 Download file
Nationalization of Oil & Gas in Bolivia: Reactions in Peru
Below you will find national and international media coverage for May 3 and 4 on this issue. La Republica examined today APRA’s and UPP’s proposals on energy resources management.
Read also:
Evo Morales Announces Nationalization of Oil and Gas
Bolivia nationalizes oil and gas resources
Evoluciones escenograficas e intervencionismo bolivariano
“Nacionalizar en el sentido de”
Interviews with Vidar Helgesen
PUCP-Observatorio Electoral: ¿Qué nos espera en la segunda vuelta?
Observatorio Electoral tiene una interesante discusion entre Martin Tanaka y Santiago Pedraglio analizando escenarios para la segunda vuelta. La mesa redonda tuvo lugar el 17 de abril del 2006.
Hugo Chavez, in Visit with Evo Morales in Bolivia, Recalls Ambassador to Peru
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is in Bolivia to discuss the nationalization of oil and gas with his counterpart, Evo Morales. Morales announced the nationalization after a visit with Chavez and Fidel Castro in Cuba. A group of Venezuelan experts from PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, are in Bolivia, presumably to offer assistance. Chavez said that, in the face of the decision by Lima to recall its ambassador, Venezuela, “with much sorrow”, must do the same and recall Venezuela’s ambassador in Peru. In effect, relations between the two countries are broken.
Ollanta Humala Responds to Chavez
It took him 5 days, but Ollanta Humala finally found a good response to the crisis generated by the statements made by Hugo Chavez concerning Alan Garcia. “Leave our thieves alone” he said to Chavez. “We will take care of our own thieves.” Had this witty riposte been delivered in the moment Chavez made his remarks, Garcia would have had more difficulty earning political capital off the event.
Second Round will be June 4
The President of the National Election Board (JNE), Javier Mendoza, announced in a press conference that the second round will be held on June 4 and that the race will be, as we all know, between UPP and APRA. The results are almost 100 percent in, and Mendoza indicated that nothing that happens in the next few hours in terms of legal decisions or vote scrutiny can alter the result.
According to Fernando Tuesta, in 2001 the JNE refused to set the date for the ballotage until after 100 percent of the votes were counted not only in the presidential but also in the legislative contest.
Statement from UPP on Andean Nations Community (CAN)
Interview with Aldo Panfichi
Chancellor Oscar Maurtua to Keep OAS Mission Informed
Peru’s Chancellor, Oscar Maurtua, has indicated that he is in permanent contact with the Electoral Observation Mission of the OAS in Peru. The Mission Chief, Lloyd Axworthy, will be “informed of the evolution of events” he said. Maurtua refused to speculate about whether Peru would expel the Venezuelan ambassador, but he insisted that the Peruvian government seeks to hold elections free from foreign interference.
Garcia on Chavez: His bark worse than his bite
Alan Garcia says Hugo Chavez’s bark is worse than his bite, and that the Venezuelan leader will not cut diplomatic ties with Peru. Claiming, without a shred of evidence mind you, that there are Venezuelan advisors working for Humala in various Departments of Peru, Garcia called on the Peruvian government to investigate the entry of Venezuelans into Peru. In response, Daniel Abugattas, spokesperson for Ollanta Humala, objected to the “stench of McCarthyism” in Garcia’s statements.
Scholar Ernesto Velit said Venezuela could be thrown out of the Organization of American States (OAS) if Chavez persists in interfering in internal Peruvian affairs. Peru could appeal to the Permanent Council of the OAS to ask for such a sanction.
President Alejandro Toledo is apparently considering the idea of a complaint to the OAS. Not only is he now threatening to throw the Venezuelan ambassador out of Peru if Chavez continues to interfere in Peruvian affairs, he also said the Peruvian government has decided to take the matter up with the OAS. Toledo will apparently meet his Venezuelan counterpart in Vienna next week.
Editorialists are having a field day with this dispute. My favorite editorial is by Federico Salazar. In “Vote for crazy horse,” he argues that Garcia has deliberately provoked Chavez, who fell into the trap; now Humala is caught in a no-win position. Even Garcia’s most acerbic critics–those who popularly refer to the former president as a “crazy horse”–cannot help but side with him in this dispute.
Evo Morales Announces Nationalization of Oil and Gas
In a surprisingly radical move, President Evo Morales of Bolivia annouced the nationalization of oil and gas refineries in Bolivia. He promised that this is the first in a wave of expropriations in other sectors including mining, forestry and land.
The nationalization involves the transfer 51% of shares of oil and gas firms to the state. Foreign firms would be given 18% of oil and gas revenues during a 180 days period as they renegotiate their contracts. With these measures, Morales affirms that Bolivia will recover control over natural resources. The state will assume control over industrialization and distribution of oil and gas.
The reaction in Peru has been swift. Eduardo Garivoto, spokesperson for the UPP, said that Ollanta Humala do not propose to expropriate private firms. The goal of UPP is a mixed economy, something in between a strictly neoliberal market and a centralized and planned economy.
Speaking in the Ventana Indiscreta with Cecilia Valenzuela, Alan Garcia said he thought Bolivia’s Evo Morales was making a mistake, but he blamed Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela. According to Garcia, Chavez can pursue confrontational policies because it has a immense quantities of oil and that allow him to engage in “tropical fantasies,” but Bolivia has small reserves and a low per capita income and can ill-afford to enter into confrontation with foreign investors.
Bloggers:
See “Bolivia nationalizes oil- and gas resources” in Un Lobo in Peru and “La primera estatización del siglo XXI” in Gran Combo Club for more.
Update May 2: Reactions covered by local media have been added below.
As voting scrutiny drags on, Flores refuses to recognize defeat
May 1st: Alan García retains an advantage of 65,012 votes over Lourdes Flores with 99.95 percent of the ballots counted. Flores refuses to concede until every vote is counted. This attitude is sharply criticized by Juan Carlos Tafur in his editorial today. He says that under the guidance of Xavier Barron, Flores has turned her defeat into a “pathetic comedy.”
May 2nd: Barron is presenting a final appeal to the JNE this morning. It constitutes the last item for the JNE to deal with prior to call a date for the second round. The JNE has reviewed all appeals and returned documentation to ONPE. ONPE will provide the election results with all votes counted this evening. Lourdes Flores will publicly thank her campaign supporters on Wednesday, May 3. Raul Castro, elected congress person for Unidad Nacional, has called Antero Flores-Araoz‘s public comments with regard to the campaign as “no fraternal”.
Restauración Nacional (RN) pide al JNE reconocer superación de valla electoral
Teodoro Petkoff: “Chávez violates Peru’s Sovereignty”
In this interview, Teodoro Petkoff (editor of TalCual and a critic of President Hugo Chavez) says Chavez is blackmailing the Peruvian people by making relations between the two countries conditional upon voters electing who Chavez wants. This, he says, is a violation of Peru’s sovereignty.
Ollanta Humala visitó Cayara, Ayacucho
Source: El Comercio, 02 de mayo del 2006
El candidato presidencial de Unión por el Perú, Ollanta Humala, visitó Cayara, donde ocurrió una matanza durante el gobierno aprista de Alan García en mayo de 1988.
Read also: Derechos humanos selectivos
UPDATED: ONPE Presidential Results at 99.97 Percent
With 99.97 percent of the votes counted:
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.627% – 3,757,686 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.320% – 2,984,796 votes
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.802% – 2,920,265 votes
Gap between García and Flores: 63,606 votes.
With 71 percent of the congressional vote counted, only 5 parties will pass the electoral threshold and take seats in the legislature: UPP, APRA, UN, AF, FC.
Al Fondo, a la Derecha
In this essay, Ecuadorian political scientist Simón Pachano asks whether Ollanta Humala can be considered of the political left.
Hugo Chavez’s Strategy of Carrots and Sticks
Maxwell A. Cameron
May 1, 2006
According to the BBC, Venezuela is spending billions of dollars of its massive oil revenues on projects designed to enhance Chavez’s influence in the region as a counter-balance to the hegemony of the United States. An opaque $4 billion fund has been put at the discretion of the President. It is estimated that Venezuela has already spent as much as $25 billion on various projects to enhance its influence in the region since 1999.
Chavez recently said that if Alan Garcia is elected in Peru he would have to recall his ambassador “because Venezuela will not have relations with that thief.” He then called for Ollanta Humala to win the election: “Ollanta, save Peru, compañero, and you will have all our support!”
These statements appear to be part of a strategy of “carrots and sticks.” If Peruvians voters support Ollanta Humala, Chavez will use his oil revenue to help Peru; if they do not, he will break diplomatic relations. The not-subtle delivery of this message in the middle of an election campaign is seen by Peruvian diplomats as worse than inappropriate–it is contrary to Venezuela’s commitments as a member of the United Nations and the Organization of American States.
In response, Peru recalled its ambassador to Venezuela, Carlos Urrutia. This prompted William Lara, Venezuela’s Minister of Information, to call Alejandro Toledo the “office boy” and “puppet” of George Bush. Lara said Venezuela would not withdraw its ambassador nor fall into provocations. He also said Garcia, who had asked for a debate with Chavez on CNN, lacked the stature to debate with the Venezuelan leader.
Ollanta Humala lamented the recall of the Peruvian ambassador and tried to distance himself from the dispute by taking issue with both the statements by Chavez and by Garcia. However, he said that he cannot ask Hugo Chavez to cease making statements about Peru. “I cannot ask that of the president. I am a candidate to the presidency.” He said the dispute involved three individuals: Chavez, Garcia and Toledo: “This should not affect bilateral relations. External relations are turning into verbal problems, and this should not be a theme in the election. This is not a problem for Peru, but one between three actors which, leaving aside who started it, everyone laments has reached these levels.”
Humala also said that Garcia does not represent Peru’s sovereignty, and he rejected the claim that Chavez is his political godfather (an accusation made by Garcia). “We nationalists are a sovereign project” he said, “the president of the United States, George Bush is godfather of Toledo and Garcia.” Daniel Abugattas, who will be a member of the next congress for Humala’s Union for Peru (UPP)–mixing his metaphors a little–accused Garcia of mounting a circus and using it as a smokescreen to avoid debating real issues.
Nadine Heredia, Humala’s wife, also disagreed with Peru’s demarche. She deplored the insults and name-calling between Chavez and Garcia, and called for a higher level of dialogue. “We are not in agreement with what has happened” she said. At the same time, she did not believe the dispute reached the point of justifying the recall of an ambassador. According to Heredia, Garcia–who she called the candidate of the right, of the oligarchy–provoked the dispute, and Chavez overreacted. She suggested that Garcia was trying to create a smokescreen to avoid a debate with Humala, and recommended that he have a manzanilla tea.
Garcia said that “Nationalism has become a boomerang against Humala and his protector and godfather. Now, nationalist Peru is against the diplomatic and political invasion of Venezuela in Peru.” According to Peru.21, Garcia appears to enjoy the role of defender of Peru’s sovereignty. He reserved his harshest words for Chavez, who he accused of being a drunk and a thug. “Who does he think he is? Sadam Hussein, and because he has petroleum he can takeover other countries, like Kuwait?”
President Toledo also warmed to the role of defender of Peru. “I will not allow Mr. Chavez or Mr. Morales to express themselves the way they have” intoned Toledo. “Mr. Chavez, learn to govern democratically. Learn to work with us” he said.
The decision to recall the ambassador must have been taken by Toledo personally, since it appeared to catch by surprise an official as powerful as Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, the president of the council of ministers. Kuczynski had advised against escalating the conflict. The Chancellor (or minister responsible for external relations), Óscar Maúrtua, undoubtedly had a hand to play in the decision. He was on record earlier saying “the supreme good of the country is to ensure the election develops normally in Peru.”
Diego Garcia Sayan supports the measure. He is the former minister of external relations who manages the Comision Andina de Juristas (Andean Jurists Commission) a non-governmental organization which is not much liked by Chavez. Before the ambassador was recalled, Garcia Sayan had said that “the statement made on Friday by the Chancellery is quite correct” but he noted that it was missing a logical implication: the recall of the ambassador. “The threats by Chavez are unacceptable. The recall could have practical effects, but it is a symbolic move.” According to Garcia Sayan, the goal of recalling the ambassador is not to break all diplomatic relations with Venezuela but to downgrade diplomatic representation as a gesture of protest.
The decision to recall of the ambassador was supported by Valentin Paniagua, the former interim president of Peru and unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election. The decision was also supported by Lourdes Flores, another unsuccessful presidential candidate who was the target of earlier jabs by Chavez.
All the fuss between Lima and Caracas has gotten the attention of policymakers in Washington. The Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, issued a press release today in which he said: “restoring peace and democracy required an enormous effort on the part of our countries in decades past, and therefore we should do everything necessary to preserve peace and democracy, and avoid situations that could undermine them.” He placed himself at the disposal of the parties to find a cooperative solution.