Author: Michael Ha
Interviews with José Miguel Morales (CONFIEP) and Federico Salazar with different assessments of the current electoral campaign.

Source: La Primera, 26 de marzo del 2006
Universe: 5,071 interviews in Lima and rural areas across the country. Margin of error +/- 3.5 to 5%.
Note: We were not aware of Universidad Alas Peruanas conducting polls.
Interview with Ollanta Humala
In this interview with Peru 21, Ollanta Humala puts distance between the statements made by his parents and his political project.
Biography: Lourdes Flores
Biography: Lourdes Flores
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 25, 2006
Last night Ollanta Humala attended an event organized by Edmundo Murrugarra, the coordinator of the Education Commission of the Government Plan of the Unión Por el Perú. The event was held under a big “Convention Tent” behind the Hotel Crillón in downtown Lima. Later, Humala led a rally in Comas, on Kilometer 12 of the Tupac Amaru highway that cuts through the northern cone of Lima.

Photo: M.A. Cameron
The evening began with over one thousand people under the tent behind the Crillón listening to campaign music and chanting slogans. One of the songs written for Humala’s campaign talked of the “sad history of Peru,” and “how our riches will be ours” when Humala is elected president. The crowd was primed to respond to the words “In education?” with “Ollanta Revolution!” Humala was late arriving, and the event which was supposed to begin at 6 started after 7 pm.
During the wait someone at the microphone mentioned the presence of the international press, which received a polite applause, something the local press might not have received, as there is great animosity toward the local media in the Humala camp. The editor of “Ollanta Perú” complained bitterly about the local media, saying there would have to be a Venezuela-type crackdown if Humala is elected. The local press was also difficult to manage. They mobbed the podium, delaying the event because they refused for some time to step down so the assembled crowd could also see the speakers.
When Humala finally arrived he was swarmed by enthusiastic supporters and carried forward to the podium where he sat flanked by his team, including VP candidate Gonzalo García. García was the first to speak, and he said that a victory for Humala would initiate a “great transformation” with a “rigorous and concrete” platform for change. “Se siente, se siente, Ollanta Presidente” cheered the crowd (“you can feel it, you can feel it, Ollanta is president”). He then introduced Edmundo Murrugarra, as someone who is honest and combative, as a teacher from Cajamarca, and the person who helped develop the educational program.

Photo: M.A. Cameron
Murrugarra gave a florid speech, very combative and dramatic, with language laced with utopian idealism and calls for sacrifice. Formerly a Senator for the United Left in the 1980s, Murrugarra remains a firebrand. He referred to the dreams of Símon Rodríguez, who accompanied Símon Bolívar, “the Liberator,” in his travels, and said these dreams were being realized by the call for change of the teachers in the movement behind Humala. His discourse was not about the 19th century, however, for he argued that investing in education was necessary to compete in the world today. He ended with a rhetorical flourish, saying to Humala “you have commanded troops, now you must command teachers.”
With that, Humala took the microphone. Appealing to the teachers in the crowd, he said his mother was a teacher and his early memory of her going to work pregnant with him, sitting in the classroom doing his own homework while his mother was teaching in the early evening, is the epitome of dignity in that profession. Referring to himself in the third person, he called for “applause for all of you, not comandante Humala.” He said that as a father he is concerned for the education of his children, and so should the state. Quality education should not be only for the elite. As a soldier he has traveled to the border zones and has seen Peruvian kids who sing the hymn of Colombia or Brazil rather than Peru. 3 million people are illiterate, in the 21st century.

Photo: F. Bazo
Humala argued that voters are getting more sophisticated and cannot be tricked by handing out t-shirts at election time. He told a joke about a politician who goes to a remote area and promises a hospital, and school and a bridge. When told there is no need for a bridge because there is no river in the area, the politician promises to build a river. Rejecting such cynicism, and saying he would not offer “populistoid measures” (medidas populacheras) Humala said people want work with dignity, and dignity means making others respect you. This is the essence of the “great transformation” he proposes. How can you explain to the child of a heroic rondero in Cajamarca that he will not get a good education when the Yanacocha mine is one of the wealthiest gold mines in the world?
It is worth noting that this highly charged image helps explain Humala’s success. The rondero is a symbol of the rural patriot, or “hero,” who has fought for his country. The gold mine symbolizes prosperity and the global economy, and the child the hope for Peru’s future. Some observers have been puzzled by why Peruvians would “jump into the void” given how well the economy is doing. Humala is acknowledging that there is prosperity, and using it to proclaim the need for redistribution.

Photo: M.A. Cameron
The objective of his government would be democratization of education, so that quality education reaches all. He showed the most emotion during his speech when he spoke of children forced to find a living on the streets and asked how the government can be insensitive to this. He then turned on “aged politicians, who have maserated over time,” and lobbies in congress and inside the palace of government who demand “laws with proper names” for the benefit of a few firms or individuals.
Humala said he and his team are challenging powerful interests not out of a suicidal mission, but because it is necessary for the rich to pay their taxes so the state can assume its responsibility, and he called for those who earn more to pay more. He also called for a campaign against corruption and attacked the high incomes of members of congress. He asked the crowd “how much do you teachers earn?” “800 Soles” came back the reply (about $240 US). “800 dollars?” said Humala. “No, Soles!” came back the reply. “How can we accept and trust elites who earn 10,000 dollars?” He then complained that members of congress get 100,000 soles (almost $30,000 US) to move out of their offices at the end of their terms. How much does a teacher get when they move between jobs? Nothing.
Saying that many people have offered him campaign support in return for agreement to favor them with laws once in power, Humala claimed to reject all such deals. “I want to arrive in power without owing anything to anyone.” He then railed against the dog piling on his candidacy that is occurring, saying that there is a “TCO” (a “todos contra Ollanta,” or “all against Ollanta”) movement being born and that there is “political terrorism” being waged against him.
Said Humala: “They say I am anti-system. Yes, I am against the current system of corruption, unemployment, hopelessness. If that is the system, not only am I anti-system, I am a rebel.” “The minority wants to defend their jewelry, their estates. Fear is the last barrier that the elite erect to protect themselves.” These people, he said, want to make this election about democracy or dictatorship. “We have the dictatorship of a minority. In Peru, democracy is poverty.” In contradistinction to this, Humala called for “a democracy of the people.” “We will overcome fear to arrive at the palace…Peru is above these traditional politicians.”

Photo: M.A. Cameron
Later, in Comas, Humala largely repeated the speech, though his delivery was adapted to a crowd of thousands who had, on average, attained a lower level of education. There were a couple of lines in his speech in Comas that stood out, at least to my ears. One was a very direct appeal for voters to cast their ballots for congressional candidates of the UPP. This appeal was made while holding aloft the communal “pot” (or olla) that symbolizes UPP. Clearly, Humala is concerned about the prospect that his presidential ticket does not have congressional coattails. “I want an army of nationalists inside the congress” he said. In similarly militaristic terminology, Humala closed the rally. “I have commanded soldiers” he said. “Now I want to command the people.”

Photo: M.A. Cameron

Source: La República, 25 de marzo del 2006
Note: the chart above contains samles that cover different geographic areas. The size of the samples are also different.
Universe: 700 interviews in Lima and Callao. Margin of error +/-3.7%. Download file
According to Human Rights Watch: “Peru’s military has systematically failed to provide courts and prosecutors with the identities of military personnel under investigation for human rights abuses committed during the country’s armed conflict.”
You will need PowerPoint to see this file, which is circulating by email Download file
We have found some background information about Juan José Rendón, the new political communicator for Unidad Nacional.

Source: La República, 24 de marzo del 2006
According to the latest poll conducted by the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (UNI), which interviewed voters between 18-19 March, Ollanta Humala stands at 28.8 percent, Lourdes Flores at 24.8 percent, and Alan Garcia is 8 points behind Flores, holding onto third place with 16.3 percent. The survey results are based on decided voters not all voters. All other candidates are in single digits.
In the event of a runoff between Flores and Humala, Flores would win 40.4 percent of the vote, and Humala would win 37.5 percent. In a runoff between Flores and Garcia, Flores would win with 42.9 percent to 28.3 percent for Garcia. In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala wins with 39.1 percent to Garcia’s 23.6 percent.
…
Según la última encuesta de la UNI realizada entre el 18 y 19 de marzo, Ollanta Humala con el 28.8% y Lourdes Flores, con el 24.8% de la intención de votos, se afirman en los primeros lugares, mientras que Alan García se mantiene rezagado en la tercera posición a 8 puntos de la candidata de Unidad Nacional con 16.3%. Cabe destacar que este sondeo ofrece los resultados según la intención de voto y no los votos validamente emitidos, no tomándose en cuenta los votos, blancos, nulos y viciados.
Ficha Técnica: Encuesta realizada por el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IECOS) de la Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería con financiamiento propio. La metodología utilizada fue la de entrevista personal en domicilio y se tocó las puertas de 2,511 personas de distintos grupos socioeconómicos. La cobertura fue de 126 distritos de 38 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. La encuesta se realizó el 18 y 19 de marzo. El nivel de confianza es del 95% y el margen de error calculado fue de +/- 2%.
La Democracia en el Peru. El mensaje de las Cifras (Resumen Informativo). Unidad del Informe de Desarrollo Humano, Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Lima 23 de marzo del 2006 Download file

Source: La Republica, march 23, 2006

Source: El Comercio, 23 de marzo del 2006

Source: La República, 24 de marzo del 2006
Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for National Unity, says Hugo Chavez is supporting the campaign of Ollanta Humala and Garcia has support from mining enterprises.
ONPE has begun to send election materials to local offices around the country.
Juan Carlos Tafur argues that President Alejandro Toledo’s “subliminal” attacks on Ollanta Humala are counter-productive, since Toledo’s presidency–his lack of leadership, frivolitry, and corruption–is one of the main reasons for the rise of Humala. Enrique Obando also analyzes the over-reaction of some sectors (and embassies) to the rise of Humala, saying that before concluding that the Peruvian people do not know how to choose their leaders, we should consider how the benefits of economic prosperity have not been shared.
In another piece, Obando is quoted saying that Humala would not be able to govern with the armed forces and would be forced to make an alliance with the American Popular Revoltuionary Alliance, APRA, in congress.
Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica Poll:
Elecciones Generales 2006: Ranking de candidatos, segun la intencion de voto preferencial por partidos politicos y Ranking de los 35 candidatos al congreso por Lima con mayor votacion preferencial Download file
Elecciones Generales 2006: Intencion de voto por listas parlamentarias y voto preferencial, segun partidos politicos. Departamento de Lima Download file
Sample: 1290 individuals interviewed between March 15-19, 2006 in 31 districts in Metropolitan Lima and Huaura, Cañete, Huaral, Barranca and Huarochiri. Margin of error: ± 2.7%. Funded by Diario Correo and Radio Programas del Peru.
According to Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) is presenting itself as the only party that can stop Ollanta Humala. Whereas a runoff with Flores would polarize the country between rich and poor, in a runoff between Garcia and Humala the competition would shift to another plane.
However, the recent UNI poll suggests that in a second round Humala beats Garcia but not Flores.
The Peruvian Consumers Association has received hundreds of calls complaining about a National Unity telephone advertising campaign.
Jorge Paz Machado, Andean Parliament candidate in the list of Peru Posible has presented an administrive demand against the National Electoral Board (JNE) for changing his number in the congressional list for 10 instead of 15.
Ollanta Humala’s mother, Elena Tasso de Humala, has called for homosexuals to be shot. The statement has outraged the GLBT community in Lima. Ollanta Humala has requested his parents not to talk with the media until April 9. More about Peruvian political parties proposals to eliminate sexual discrimination in this posting.
LGBT activists supporting candidates of the Movimiento Nueva Izquierda have distributed an electronic communique accusing the local media of distorting the purpose of a public meeting that took place yesterday, March 22. The Activists denie that the purpose of the meeting was to protest against presidential candidate Ollanta Humala. The protest was against repressive measures taken by the Major of Lima against the LGBT community.
As Ollanta Humala takes the lead in the campaign, a chorus of analysts has begun to call attention to the implications of an Humala victory for Peru’s democratic regime. Sociologist Julio Cotler, writer Mario Vargas Llosa, and columnist Juan Paredes Castro are among the observers sounding the alarm.
Peru elite braces for possible Humala victory
By Richard Lapper and Hal Weitzman in Lima
Financial Times Americas, March 21 2006 17:39
“The outcome of the country’s general election on April 9 may be uncertain, but many within Lima’s political and business elite are planning for a Humala victory” says the Financial Times. “A proponent of higher taxes and greater state involvement in the economy, Mr Humala is not a natural friend of business. But while some businessmen cling to hopes of a more traditional candidate winning, others are jockeying for position and trying to shape the policies of the next government.”
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Photo: J. Bazo
Oscar Ugarteche, Belissa Andía, Vicente Otta, Sandra Vallenas, Susel Paredes y Víctor Andrés García Belaúnde Velarde
Universidad del Pacifico and Weblog Peru Election 2006 Roundtable “Peru Election 2006: Analysis of Policy Platforms to Support Sexual Diversity”
Maxwell Cameron & Fabiola Bazo
March 20, 2006
Under the auspices of Universidad del Pacifico, a roundtable on “Policy Platforms to Support Sexual Diversity” was held on Friday, March 10, 2006. What follows is a brief summary some of the key issues and conclusions that emerged from the discussion.
El último estudio de opinión pública sobre intención de voto a nivel nacional de la Compañia Peruana de Opinión y Mercados arrojó los siguientes resultados del total de votos válidamente emitidos:
1. Ollanta Humala (Unión por el Perú) con 31.6%
2. Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional) con 29.1%
3. Alan García (APRA) con 21.6%
4. Valentín Paniagua (Frente de Centro) con 6%
5. Martha Chávez (Alianza por el Futuro) con 5.5%
Ficha Técnica: Sondeo realizado entre el 15 al 19 de marzo del 2006, universo conformado por la población urbana y rural del país, 280 distritos de 20 departamentos, 2,860 electores hábiles con un margen de error de +/-1.86%. Fuente de financiamiento: RPP y Diario Correo.
Charts: Download file
Resultados: Download file

Source: La Primera, 21 de marzo del 2006
Según la última encuesta de Analistas y Consultores a nivel de Lima, Unidad Nacional colocaría el mayor número de legisladores en el próximo Congreso representando a Lima. La segunda fuerza parlamentaria sería el APRA, mientras que en tercer lugar sería para Alianza por el Futuro. UPP se ubicaría cuarto.
Ficha técnica: Encuesta de Analistas y Consultores con registro 0004-REE/JNE, realizada con recursos propios, utilizando el método de entrevista personal domiciliaria, con una muestra de 800 personas, mayores de edad. Se desarrolló a nivel de Lima en 37 distritos, entre el 15 y 17 de marzo. El margen de error es del 3.46% con un 95% de nivel de confianza.
Scenarios for a Second Round
Mirko Lauer examines two scenarios. First, a second round between Ollanta Humala and Lourdes Flores that would polarize the race and exacerbate ethnic and class divisions along with the feeling of exclusion most people have. The polarization would be between A&B sector voters and the rest, especially given the 71% support in sector A for Flores and only 1% for Humala. Lauer predicts that Humala would win in this case. A second scenario would be a second round between Humala and Valentin Paniagua or Humala and Alan Garcia. The presence of Garcia or Paniagua, both candidates representing a centre option, would dimish the polarization and would permit democracy to remain as the central theme in the election.
In an interview with La Republica, Enrique Zileri expressed his concern with how much is unknown about Ollanta Humala. Zileri is concerned with a government led by Humala, how Humala would relate with the media, would he continue calling himself “Comandante”? For Zileri, if there were a second round between Garcia and Humala or Garcia and Flores, Garcia would win given that APRA is at the centre of the political spectrum, while Humala and Flores are at opposite ends.
Finally, Milagros Salazar explores the anger and frustration of the Peruvian voter outside Lima and the “political correctness” of Lourdes Flores in dealing with such deep resentment.

Source: La República, 21 de marzo del 2006
In this interview Francisco Durand talks about Peruvian business groups and his latest book on neoliberalism and the state.
Responding to Fernando Olivera’s allegations yesterday, Ollanta Humala has denied the existence of recordings of conversations between him and Vladimiro Montesinos. Humala’s party may take legal action after April 9 against Olivera for defamation. For Mauricio Mulder, the allegation may become a boomerang for Olivera.
Representatives from the three political parties are considering to form a left-center coalition to challenge the three leading candidates. This initiative follows the cyber-campaign a for a Moral Election.

Source: El Comercio, 20 de marzo del 2006
Electoral Scenarios
Juan Carlos Tafur, Enrique Bernales, Fernado Tuesta and Antonio Zapata outline possible scenarios for April 9th and the second round.
The polarization of the election campaign raises questions about the implications of the outcome for the political regime. Gustavo Gorriti defines the movement behind Ollanta Humala as fascist and more dangerous to democracy than Fujimorismo, while El Comercio editorializes that Peruvians are facing a breaking point for democracy. Finally, for Fernando Rospigliosi, Alan Garcia has adopted some of Alberto Fujimori´s traits by proposing to dissolve congress, to have faceless judges, and to impose the death penalty for sexual crimes.
Jorge Bruce and Guillermo Giacosa explore the limitations of Lourdes Flores in developing an emotional linkage with the Peruvian electorate.