Author: Michael Ha
Source: El Comercio, 29 de mayo del 2006
Read also our May 26th’s Congressional update, May 25, 2006 graciously provided by Rici.
Santiago Pedraglio and Luis Pasara discuss the democratic credentials of Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia. It is not clear Garcia and Humala would pass the democratic test with high marks.
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Interview with Carlos Tapia
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Interview with Marciano Rengifo
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Interview with Mauricio Mulder
Source: El Comercio, 28 de mayo del 2006
Source: El Comercio, 28 de mayo del 2006
Source: El Comercio, 28 de mayo del 2006
Universe: 2,000 interviews in 175 districts in 113 localities in 77 provinces of all departments representing 81% of the electorate. Margin of error: +/-2.2%
Survey conducted by IDICE Del Peru
Universe: 4,850 personas interviewed between May 23-26, 2006 in 140 districts in 37 provinces in 21 regions, representing 70% of the national electorate. Margin of error: 4.5%
Summary of results: Download file
Simmulation of the Vote: Download file
Source: La Republica, 28 de mayo del 2006
Sample: 1,710 interviews in 133 districts in 47 provinces in 17 departments. Download file
Charts: Download file
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Interview with Carlos Ivan Degregori
Source: El Comercio, 28 de mayo del 2006
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Interview with Nelson Manrique
Source: La Republica, 27 de mayo del 2006
Según el nuevo sondeo a nivel nacional del Grupo de Opinión Pública (GOP) de la Universidad de Lima, realizado entre el 19 al 21 del presente mes (en el cual no tuvo influencia el debate electoral), Alan García tiene el 61.2% de los votos válidos, mientras que Ollanta Humala sólo el 38.8%. El candidato aprista cada vez toma mayor distancia.
Encuesta nacional realizada por el Grupo de Opinión Pública (GOP) de la Universidad de Lima a 2,410 ciudadanos en zonas urbanas y rurales de 248 distritos ubicados en 83 provincias de las 25 regiones del Perú. El trabajo de campo se realizó entre el viernes 19 y el domingo 21 de mayo. Nivel de Confianza: 95%. Margen de Error: +/-2.04% Download file
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Interview with Diego Garcia Sayan
El esperado debate entre los equipos técnicos de Alan García (APRA) y Ollanta Humala (UPP) se suspendió hoy como consecuencia de los actos de violencia protagonizados ayer en Cuzco.
Los hechos violentos ocurridos ayer en Cusco han causado una ola de articulos en la prensa del mundo. Hasta ahora la informacion es confusa, algunos diciendo que Alan Garcia fue atacado, otros que ambos bandos se enfrentaron a los tiros. Aqui se adjunta articulos de varios medios del mundo
Here is the latest update on the congressional results, courtesy of Rici, as well as his thoughts on the preferential voting system.
In the ONPE report of May 25, there was a small surge of votes for Alianza por el Futuro in Lima, and a small dearth of votes for Restauración Nacional. This was enough to revert the Lima results to the previous standings (UPP 8, AF 8, Apra 7, UPP 6, FC 3, PP 2, RN 1), making the national totals:
UPP: 45
Apra: 36
Unidad Nacional: 17
Alianza por el Futuro: 13
Frente de Centro: 5
Restauración Nacional: 2
Perú Posible: 2
However, there are still more than 2,000 mesas in Lima unaccounted for, and the results are still very close. According to the May 25 report, RN has 4.7% of the Lima votes and 4.01% of national votes; this is still too close to definitively say that RN will make the threshold, although it still seems quite likely. If it doesn’t make the threshold, based on the current standings, the two RN seats would go to UPP (Madre de Dios) and PP or UN (Lima). In short, we’re not going to know the Lima results until the vote count is complete, which allegedly will happen tomorrow.
In Cusco, the trend continues and it now seems unlikely that Apra will recover enough votes to gain two seats, although it is not impossible.
A number of people are suggesting abandoning the preferential ballot, allegedly to simplify the vote count and “avoid internecine battles”. In my opinion, this would be a mistake. Analysing the preferential ballots clearly demonstrates that voters use the opportunity to select between members of electoral alliances such as Unidad Nacional, and to express preference for particular candidates. “Closed list” voting effectively gives much more control to the party or alliance apparatus which constructs the candidate lists, allowing the possibility for horse-trading and deal-making. Given the general distrust of party bureaucracies, it seems to me unlikely that Peruvian electors would support eliminating the
preferential ballot if they understood the consequences. Unfortunately, the commentators suggesting eliminating the preferential ballot are unlikely to explain the consequences, since most or all of them have a vested interest in empowering party bureaucracies over the popular vote.
There is clearly a problem with counting the preferential vote, but I think it would be better to address this directly, perhaps by looking at practices in other countries which use similar electoral systems, and perhaps by introducing some form of electronic voting, or at least electronic reporting of actas.
I personally believe that the issue of “internecine battles” is a chimera. In the case of an electoral alliance like Unidad Nacional or Frente de Centro, it is surely legitimate for a voter to express an opinion on the relative merits of alliance members, given that there is no certainty that the alliance will maintain itself in the elected congress, as we have seen from the discussions going on within both of these alliances.
Source. La República, 26 de mayo del 2006
Muestra: 2,032 personas. Margen de error:+/- 2.15%. Cobertura: 130 distritos de 45 provincias en 18 departamentos. Representatividad: 68%. Fechas de aplicación: Entre el 18 y el 21 de mayo. Financiamiento: Universidad Católica del Perú.
Download file
May 26: Hemos añadido la cobertura de los diferentes medios de prensa.
May 25: A clash between the supporters of Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala resulted in five people wounded, two (maybe three) by gunshot, in the city of Cusco. Details are sketchy, but it appears that Alan Garcia was on route to the airport when a confrontation occurred with a group of UPP supporters.
The APRA version: According to Jorge Del Castillo, a gunman fired at the caravan carrying members of the APRA party. The gunman was identified by Del Castillo as a retired police major by the name of Marcos Vladimiro Santos de la Gala.
The UPP version: Gonzalo García Nuñez, candidate for the vice presidency of the UPP, rejected the idea that his group was behind the violence, saying that APRA supporters initiated the violence. He said that members of the APRA entourage got out of their vehicles and fired at supporters of Humala.
The version that is being reported on the Channel 8 television at 8 pm this evening is that a mob of Humala supporters attacked the APRA caravan as it approached the airport. The caravan continued toward the airport, but a group of APRA militants returned to the scene of the confrontation and that is when gunfire occurred. Both sides may have been armed.
In recent days both candidates, Garcia and Humala, have experienced violence on the campaign trail. Humala was hit by an egg while campaigning in Comas; fist to cuffs ensued. Garcia was assaulted with eggs in the city of Huacho as he celebrated his 57th birthday, and again today in Cusco. The violence has become so routine that Humala now campaigns with the protection of improvised shields.
Comments by other fellow bloggers: (Casi) estuve en la balacera del Cusco
El candidato a la presidencia por UPP, Ollanta Humala, descartó tajantemente que esté pensando renunciar a su candidatura ante las acusaciones de un presunto fraude electoral, tal como afirmaron dos medios locales el día de ayer, basándose en el concepto de que “no habría por qué regalarle el país a un político corrupto como Alan García”.
Source: La República, 26 de mayo del 2006. Foto: EFE.
Solidaridad Nacional puso como condición al Partido Popular Cristiano que, para renovar con Unidad Nacional apuntando a las elecciones municipales de noviembre y presidenciales del 2011, Luis Castañeda Lossio deberá ser el candidato y líder de la alianza política. En caso contrario, ven muy difícil su continuidad.
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APEIM se queja por veto del JNE
La Asociación Peruana de Empresas de Investigación de Mercados (APEIM) se quejó por el veto del Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) a difundir los sondeos de intención de voto para la segunda vuelta a través de los medios electrónicos (Internet, mensajes de texto, llamadas telefónicas, etc.), denunciandolo como un intento de censura.
Ollanta Humala denied a report by the newspaper La Primera that claimed he was studying the possibility of withdrawing from the election and presenting a complaint of fraud to the Organization of American States. The claim was made by the director of La Primera, Juan Carlos Tafur, on television last night, and repeated in La Primera today. Members of the Humala camp continue to complain about a fraud being prepared against them, a claim sustained by various and sundry allegations concerning a presumed lack of transparency in the electoral process, biases among electoral authorities, and the expectation that APRA will attempt to steal votes on election day.
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Interview with Lloyd Axworthy
A document that ostensibly demonstrates that the military is providing material support for the APRA campaign is, according to El Comercio, a hoax. The document was given to El Comercio, which consulted with the ministry of defense before publishing. The defense ministry confirmed that the document was fraudulent.
A Venezuelan election official closely linked to the government of Hugo Chavez will not be acredited to participate as an international monitor in the second round of the election according to the National Election Board. Jorge Rodriguez was identified as one of the election observers who was in the voting booth with Ollanta Humala on election day when Humala was virtually taken hostage by a hostile mob.
Amnesty International has condemned the blatant ignorance of both presidential candidates with respect to human rights issues.
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Interview with Antauro Humala
Very interesting interview with Antauro Humala. It looks like the Peruvian intelligence service (SIN) knew about the plans for the Locumba uprising, maybe even exploited it, which is different from saying it was behind the uprising. According to Antauro, the uprising was a reaction to the compromise in which Fujimori would remain in office for one year before new elections would be held.
Humberto Campodónico sees a victory by Alan Garcia as a victory for the right. He quotes economist Jurgen Schuldt as saying that APRA’s shift to the right marks a move from “responsible change to irresponsible continuity.”
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Ollanta Humala and the Left
Alberto Moreno, leader of the Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, recognizes the similarities between the ideas of his party and those of Ollanta Humala’s Union Por el Peru. Javier Diez Canseco, of the Partido Socialista, however, argues that neither of the presidential candidates in the runoff election deserves the support of the left.
Representatives from APRA and Union por el Peru will present their party platforms to promote sexual diversity on Wednesday, May 31.
Read also:
– Los homosexuales y Ollanta Humala
– MHoL Communique addressed to Presidential Candidates
– Roundtable: Electoral Platforms Against Sexual Discrimination
– Jaime Bayly Responds to Mrs. Humala
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Who Won the Debate?
The consensus in the press seems to be that Alan Garcia won. Mind you, much of this consensus comes out of Lima. Many people believe that Humala reinforced support within his own ranks, while Garcia reached out to the voters needed in Lima to pass the critical 50 percent threshold.
Source: El Comercio, 23 de mayo del 2006
Encuesta flash realizada por APOYO Opinión y Mercado S.A., en exclusividad para América Televisión. La encuesta en Lima se realizó entre el 21 y el 22 de mayo de 2006 a 500 electores.
Source: El Comercio, May 23 , 2006
Encuesta Flash sobre el debate presidencial a nivel de Líma Metropolitana. Universe: 500 individuals in Metropolitan Lima: Download file
Source: La Primera, May 23, 2006
Universe: 1,121 individuals in urban and rural areas. Margin of error: +/-3% representing 79.9% of the electorate Download file
Nota: Este fue un simulacro de votacion, no una encuesta y tuvo lugar antes del debate presidencial.
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Interviews with Héctor Vargas Haya
The OAS Electoral Observation Mission is reinstalling itself for the second round of the election.
Rici kindly offers the following update on the congressional vote count:
As the revision of congressional votes continues, there has been a general trend of slight increases in UPP votes in strong UPP districts. Interestingly, over the last month the total popular vote for all parties has remained virtually the same, but the number of seats allocated to UPP has continued to increase. As of Saturday May 20 (the last ONPE webpage update), the congressional standings are:
UPP: 45
Apra: 36
Unidad Nacional: 17
Alianza por el Futuro: 12
Frente de Centro: 5
Restauración Nacional: 3
Perú Posible: 2
Since my last update, that represents a gain by UPP of one seat from Apra (in Cusco) and a gain by RN of one seat from AF (in Lima).
Both of these contests are very close, and it is possible that they will change again. Cusco is at 89% of polls counted, and Lima is at 77%. In all, counting is finished in 18 of the 25 districts, but slight changes are still possible as a result of appeals.
RN’s popular vote is currently 3.988% and PP’s is currently 3.978%. However, the bulk of the uncounted votes are in Lima, where RN is polling at 4.8% and PP at 6.9%, so I’m pretty confident that both of them will make it over the quota. However, it will be tight, particularly in the case of RN.
In addition to the two districts where the overall outcome is still in doubt, there are a couple of quite close preferential counts. The closest of these is in Piura, where UPP won two seats; the second and third place preferential vote winners for UPP differ by only 6 votes (out of about 14,000). While Piura is theoretically at 100%, I suppose it is still possible that there are outstanding appeals, and a single polling station’s results could alter the order of preferential votes.
There are also quite close preferential races for the only Apra congressional seat in Junin, and for the fifth Apra congressional seat in La Libertad.
If the results stand as they are at present, there will be 35 women in the new congress, by my count, which is just under 30%. That might be a bit disappointing (it is lower than the percentage of women candidates), but it is a lot more than the current congress (or any previous congress), and in my opinion illustrates the importance of open-list preferential voting.
It is also interesting to note that UPP will have congresistas from 24 of the 25 districts, while Apra will represent 20 of the 25 districts. Unidad Nacional only managed to elect congresistas in 10 districts.
Cynthia Sanborn was on RPP commenting on the debate last night. She read my description of the debate, and wrote the following response:
Gustavo Yamada, Fernando Villarán and I ended up staying in RPP with Raul Vargas throughout the debate and making comments after each block, at the commercial breaks. We watched the debate on the TV monitors in order to be able to transmit to listeners what they were not seeing. Because I think I watched pretty closely, I beg to disagree with a few of your points in the blog summary — about Humala winning on style, and on his closing statement being the strongest.
Frankly, I think Humala showed an incredible lack of style, clarity or timing, all of which he needed to make effective jabs at Garcia – he came out swinging and took the anticipated aggressive stance, but in my view he didn’t pull it off well. He read a lot from notes, apparently unfamiliar or uncomfortable with some of the issues at hand, and missed a number of excellent opportunities to take the initiative or get back at Garcia’s weak spots. From the very start, when Garcia criticized him for arriving late, he could have made a retort about Garcia making all of us wait in long lines during his past government, but instead he opted for an obvious lie. Everybody who watched TV saw what actually happened, that it wasn’t Apristas who held him up but his stopping for an agua mineral, so what was the point of saying that? Under pressure, what else would he lie about?
(Aside — miiltary professionals are noted for their punctuality, even in Peru, so I don’t think anyone believes he arrived late by accident).
During various other times he could have reminded the audience in general, understandable terms of the errors of Garcias first government — indeed, he HAD to do that to counter Garcia’s image of newfound maturity and redemption– but instead he made oblique references to Rodrigo Franco and Mantilla, which younger voters might not even understand or care much about (unfortunately). Garcia went after Toledo, not Humala, and I think that is what many voters have fresh in mind — replacing an often tardy, often frivolous, often incomprehensible president with somebody serious and authoritative. Like García?
Formerly known as “Caballo Loco”, Garcia now looked extremely tranquilo y sereno. Humala was not able to provoke him, try as he might, and instead let himself be provoked on the Andahuaylas issue — “pisó el palito” as they say, about his brother, instead of changing the topic or getting back at APRA. Really, I thought he was a mediocre sparring partner, at some points even repeating the promises and programs Garcia had just enunciated (“analfabetismo cero”). Even if he did make some good points (the Montesinos issue was a good point, for example, which Garcia evaded), and even if he did put forth some programmatic ideas that differentiate him from Garcia and can resonate with voters (seguridad ciudadana con participacion, fortalecer alcaldes, defensa de RRNN, etc).
In the closing statements, Garcia looked straight at the camera and thanked the Peruvian people (and Dios). Humala read a canned statement, did not look at the audience, and did not thank anyone but himself. The bit about not taking the presidential salary — now who believes THAT? Really, I did not see that as a strong closing statement.
In any case, it was useful to see both of them in action and I think Humala will certainly retain his committed followers after this, but I don’t think that kind of performance in the debates or on the road — is going to capture significant numbers of indecisos. Garcia, for his part, was so full of catchy programs and sound bites that it soon began to sound like too much. But he didn’t really have to worry about this — just had to avoid losing points to Humala and, except for the Montesinos issue, I don’t think he did.
We will see that the polls say, and what actually happens on election day of course.
Cynthia Sanborn is a political scientist who teaches in the Centro de Investigaciones de la Universidad del Pacifico (CIUP). She did her PhD at Harvard University, and works on public policy, democracy, development, and civil society in Latin America.