Author: Michael Ha

Perhaps worrying that a large lead over Ollanta Humala will encourage voters to cast blank ballots, Alan Garcia downplayed his current advantage in the polls.

Maxwell A. Cameron and Jorge Bazo
May 8, 2006
Xavier Barron, spokesperson for Unidad Nacional on legal issues, claims that the National Executive Committee of his group is considering, among other options, recommending that UN supporters cast blank ballots in the second round. The other options include supporting APRA, UPP, or leaving the decision to the conscience of each voter. The idea of supporting Humala may seem far-fetched, but voting blank is a serious option for UN supporters–many of whom may be waiting for a signal from the leadership.
The secretary general of APRA, Mauricio Mulder, says Barron is sore because he feels responsible for the defeat of Lourdes Flores. The tensions between APRA and Unidad Nacional have been exacerbated in recent days by the statements made by Lourdes Flores when she accepted defeat. She claimed that she could not say certainty that she had lost in the ballot boxes rather than in the polling booths where UN did not have scrutineers. If Flores’ voters decide the election was stolen by APRA scrutineers, it will be hard for them to do anything but cast blank votes on June 4.
Mulder’s comment also speaks to the perception that Barron is seeking to retain prestige and influence within Unidad Nacional in spite of the presumption that he contributed to Flores’ defeat (either by failing to defend the vote adequately, or by association with the marketeers in the campaign who have been heavily criticized).
Flores has remained silent and is not expected to make any public endorsement prior to the June 4 election. It is far from clear that an endorsement by Flores would help Garcia. At stake is her voters, not the position of her alliance. That said, the deterioration of relations between APRA and Unidad Nacional has implications for post-election coalition possibilities. The very quick embrace of APRA by Antero Flores-Araoz, Flores’ rival within the UN, also makes it harder for the people close to Flores to accept Garcia.
On the television program Rueda de Prensa last night, Mirko Lauer reported rumors that Dionisio Romero played a direct role in the Flores campaign and he also indicated that Flores Colombian advisor, Glorisa, will be making statements about the campaign to the press.
Resumen: Xavier Barrón, personero legal de Unidad Nacional, informó que el Comité Ejecutivo Nacional de su agrupación evaluará si promoverá el votar en blanco en la segunda vuelta, en caso de que las propuestas de gobierno de Alan García y Ollanta Humala no les parezcan las más adecuadas.
En Unidad Nacional se manejan 4 opciones:
1. Votar por Alan García (APRA).
2. Votar eventualmente por Ollanta Humala (UPP).
3. Sugerir a votar en blanco o nulo.
4. Dejar al criterio de los que apoyaron a UN en primera vuelta a votar “de acuerdo a su conciencia”.

Whereas Alan Garcia seeks to capitalize on the perception that Ollanta Humala is too confrontational, Humala is seeking to cast Garcia as an ally of traditional politicians.
Garcia did not mention Humala directly in his most recent campaign stop in Ventanilla, but he emphasized the importance of toleration and said that he seeks to avoid racial confrontation. He said 30 percent of the population voted for a change in the political system. APRA has got the message and will act on it. Garcia’s current campaign theme is “responsible change.”
Humala said that traditional politicians are aligning themselves behind Garcia, and he criticized Toledo and Garcia for forming a “pact of impunity.” Santiago Pedraglio said last night on the television program Rueda de Prensa that “Toledo is to Garcia what Chavez is to Humala.”

Maxwell A. Cameron and Fabiola Bazo
May 7, 2006

As the second round campaign begins in earnest, the strategies as well as the strengths and vulnerabilities of the candidate are beginning to take shape. The JNE issued a resolution “indicating” the date is June 4. Oddly, as Fernando Tuesta notes, it does not “convoke” the election. Whatever the case may be, the election will be on June 4 and there are two contenders, Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia, both of whom are beginning to exhibit their strategies.
Ollanta Humala will use to his advantage the newness of his movement and the fact tht it is less turgid with long-standing components. The “olla” (pot, the nationalist’s symbol) still has room for new ingredients before it becomes saturated. In an interview, Humala says the winner of the election will be the party that builds the broadest social alliances. He is offering the Ministry of Labor to the labor movement; the administration of social programs to the Catholic Church; and he has attracted two members of the Truth Commission to his camp to work on reparations.
Humala is behind Garcia in the struggle for votes in Lima. Once again violence happened on the hustings when paper and plastic bottles were thrown at Ollanta Humala when he appeared in the Gamarra commercial district. This is the second hostile reaction from people in a popular market in Lima. The first time was in La Parada during the first round.
Alan Garcia recognizes that the election is a battle in which the north and south of Peru are divided. He says that APRA built its base in the mestizo (that is, mixed blooded) north, and has historically had problems in the ethnically pure indigenous south. APRA’s great enemies and competitors have all had southern bases: Sanchez Cerro, Odria, Fujimori, and—most recently—Toledo. But he reminds people that he won 75 percent of the vote in Puno in 1985. Garcia is also reaching out and seeking to make alliances or win endorsements—with Valentin Paniagua, Pastor Humberto Lay and Cardenal Juan Luis Cipriani (Humala has also met with the latter two).
Carlos Reyna warns that the support of anti-Humala political leaders, especially those associated with Lourdes Flores, could actually hurt Garcia by casting him as a member of the establishment. In a similar vein, Toledo’s recent embrace of APRA, which is being studied by election authorities, could hurt the APRA candidate. Polls say Toledo’s approval ratings are on the rise, but he remains reviled by many. He is certainly not popular enough to help Garcia with an endorsement. While Apristas lament the executive bear hug, Humala is denouncing a putative Toledo-Garcia pact. Percy Medina opines that Toledo’s statements did not violate election law.
A similar vulnerability arises from the tendency of old APRA leaders to reemerge as the possibility of an APRA government begins to take shape. The appearance in the media of names and faces associated with the 1985-1990 government can only backfire on APRA. Part of the APRA strategy of alliance-making is based on the rebooting of the famous “Social Front,” an agglomeration of social forces prepared to work with APRA. This has attracted first round presidential candidates Natale Amprimo and Ricardo Wong.

A worker in Chinatown rests on a dolly proclaiming “Alan President” and “Chinese Wong with Alan”
Photos: M.A. Cameron

Ollanta Humala promised that, if he is elected, the main labor confederation of Peru–the CGTP (General Confederation of Peruvian Workers)–can decide who will be the next minister of labor. For years the APRA party controlled the labor movement. Under the military government of Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1975), control over most of the labor movement shifted from APRA to the Communist Party.

The Frente Regional de Ayacucho is a group that does not form part of Ollanta Humala’s movement in Ayacucho. More radical than the nationalist movement, the FRA nonetheless views Humala as preferable to the alternatives in Ayacucho. In this statement it offers harsh words for Carlos Tapia, an old rival, who has recently joined forces with Humala.

Talks have been held between Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua. These are conversations not a pact, but they show Garcia’s interest in picking up Paniagua’s voters by means of a friendly gesture toward the leader of the Frente de Centro. The main group within the Frente, Accion Popular, could well decide to endorse Garcia’s candidacy in a national congress to be held on May 20.
Garcia is also refusing to congratulate Ollanta Humala for winning the first round. Such “theatrics” he says are inappropriate. All the first round has settled is who are the top two candidates, and congratulations should be reserved for the result of the second round.

Source: La República, 05 de mayo del 2006
Humala was on the campaign trail yesterday, working his way through crowds in Ate Vitarte on the periphery of Lima. He repeated familiar campaign messages: that Alan Garcia should apologize to Peruvians for his performance in government in 1985-1990, and that President Alejandro Toledo should not leave Peru after July 28 but remain to face charges in the courts.
En su primer día de campaña buscando ganar votos en la capital, el candidato de Unión por el Perú (UPP), recorrió once asentamientos humanos de Ate Vitarte, en Lima. Afirmó que Alan García debe de dar una disculpa por su gobierno anterior antes de buscar un nuevo voto de confianza del electorado, además de conminar al presidente del Perú, Alejandro Toledo, a no dejar el país cuando acabe su mandato pues tiene que responder ante la justicia por su gestión.

May 03: In an interview with Rosa Maria Palacios in Prensa Libre, Ollanta Humala characterized the Venezuelan regime under Hugo Chavez as democratic because it has met international standards upheld by organizations like the Carter Center. At the same time, he rejected efforts to link his candidacy with Hugo Chavez and the Venezuelan government. He acknowledged that he has travelled to Venezuela on 5 or 6 occasions, but also said he has visited the leaders of Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil.
Humala reiterated that he has never abused the human rights of anyone, but refused to enter into details of his service in the Madre Mia base in 1992. He said “etnocacerismo” (which he now dissociates with his movement) arose in part as a result of the rejection by sectors within the military of strategic doctrines designed by the French and the US. US and French counter-insurgency doctrines were based on wars not fought on the national territory, and hence tended to treat the population without due respect. Humala also said that reservists have played a key role in his movement because other political forces failed to recognize the importance of this sector of the population.
Humala also called attention to the recent statements by Lourdes Flores in which she said that she is not sure that Unidad Nacional lost in the ballot boxes but rather in the scrutiny. Although, Humala said, if he made similar comments he would be called undemocratic, he nonetheless believes that his party lost votes where they did not have scrutineers. He asked electoral authorities to take steps to address this problem.
May 04: Hemos añadido la cobertura de los medios de prensa escrita.

According to La Primera, APRA may be seeking the support from Humberto Lay’s party for the second round. Jorge Del Castillo denies meting with Lay and discussing politics. Lay said a meeting has taken place and commented on the “good relations” between APRA and his party. APRA has provided Restauracion nacional with its own electoral documentation (actas) to compare ballot counting.