Archive for the ‘Political Parties’ Category
Biography: Susana Villarán
Biography: Susana Villarán
Biography: Alberto Borea
Biography: Alberto Borea
Biography: Natale Amprimo
Biography: Natale Amprimo
Biography: Valentin Paniagua
Biography: Valentin Paniagua
Biography: Alan García
Biography: Alan Garcia
Biography: Ollanta Humala
Biography: Ollanta Humala
Two Advertising Experts Assess the Electoral Campaign
For those interested on the advertising side of the electoral campaign. Gustavo Rodriguez was interviewed by El Comercio today and Hernán Garrido Lecca (APRA) was interviewed by Peru 21 on Friday.
Ollanta Humala Proposes to Convert Government Palace into a Museum
Accounts of Lourdes Flores Campaign
Raúl Mendoza Cánepa assesses Lourdes Flores’ campaign strategy for La Primera. Caretas also offers an interesting account of the campaign. Download file
Interview with Arturo Woodman
In this interview Arturo Woodman, vicepresidential candidate for Unidad Nacional, tells La Primera that Unidad Nacional will win in the second round. For him the campaign is not between Left and Right, but over who has the ability to attract investment to the country.
Interview with Alberto Borea
Comentary on 3 Political Campaigns
Juan Carlos Tafur evaluates posible second round escenarios for Alan Garcia. Augusto Alvarez Rodrich discusses Lourdes Flores new strategy. Mirko Lauer examines the fujimorista campaign.
Lourdes Flores Changes her Position on Contracts with Investors
During a speech for the Ideele radio network Lourdes Flores stated that one of her first actions as president on July 28, 2006 will be to request to the Contraloría General de la República to audit all the contracts between the Peruvian state and private enterprises. Her goal would appear to be two-fold: (1) to not allow her competitors to monopolize the issue, and (2) to appear less beholden to private sector interests.
Most Electoral Platforms do not Convince Peruvians
Representatives of CONFIEP and the Consorcio de Investigación Económica y Social (CIES) are critical of the policy platforms offered by candidates in this election. For Carlos Reyna, the winner of the election will be the candidate able to build a credible image and offering realistic proposals to the electorate.
A Forgotten Issue in this Election: Drugtrafficking
Mirko Lauer and Augusto Alvarez Rodrich on the Crisis in National Unity
Columnist Mirko Lauer says the climate of rebellion within National Unity could contribute to a further loss of voters. Flores continues to focus on the campaign, but there is a growing division between the “politicians” and the “publicists” within UN. So far, no one has been fired, but the attacks seem to be focusing on Glorisa, Flores’ Colombian campaign advisor. There is also some unhappiness in UN with the latest publicity spots, which appear to be doing little for the campaign.
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich also notes increasing nerviousness within UN, and says that Humala may be in a clear first place above Flores if the rural vote is factored into the poll results. Rural voters are costly for survey researchers to reach, and tend to be under represented. Yet the situation is not so different from January of this year, and is not so surprising given the evidence of Humala’s “teflon” with respect to the various accusations that have been made against him.
Interview with César Hildebrandt
A revised version of Cesár Hildebrant´s “Por qué no votaré por Alan” has been circulated in the web lately. In this interview Hildebrandt states that he has not updated the opinion piece he wrote five years ago. He also says that if he was “demanded” to vote for somebody, he would vote for Valentín Paniagua.
Analysts Assess Lourdes Flores’ Campaign
Peruvian political analysts are examining the challenges Lourdes Flores faces in the remaining weeks of the campaign. For Fernando Rospigliosi, Flores does not have a central, clear, focus in her campaign–something like security for citizens. For José Luis Sardón, Lourdes Flores has not defended the strengths of the market economy and its social implications. As a result, Ollanta Humala has positioned himself as the candidate for change. For Eduardo Toche, Flores started her campaign too early, her discourse is not credible, and her activities seem artificially directed to winning votes from poorer areas. Juan Carlos Tafur states that Flores’ campaign is going through a very tough times. The mayor of Lima, Luis Castañeda Lossio, has come forward to publicly express his support for Flores; this may be a sign that members of National Unity may finally start to work in a more collaborative manner. Raúl Rachitoff, Lourdes Flores advertising advisor, has announced, in an interview with Perú.21, that there will be changes in the campaign.
The Final Race is between Lourdes, Ollanta & Alan
According to Santiago Pedraglio, the elecction is between three candidates: Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan García. García needs to capture a large number of the undecided voters and take away votes from other candidates. Pedraglio thinks the percentage of undecided voters is not that significant, based on comparisons with previous elections. For Mirko Lauer, García is the only one who could beat Humala in a second round and needs to pick up the votes Flores is losing to get there.
Interview with Ralph Murphine
Here is an interesting interview in La República. Ralph Murphine, an election consultant, says Ollanta Humala projects a positive image and his nationalism gives his image depth, whereas Lourdes Flores’ image is shallow, and non-specific beyond the fact that she is a woman. Given that pollsters like APOYO exclude close to 20% of the rural population in their sampling, Murphine warns the outcome of the Peruvian election could be similar to the Bolivian one, where people in rural areas voted heavily for Evo Morales.
Alfredo Torres on the latest Apoyo poll
Alfredo Torres runs APOYO, Peru’s leading polling company. His latest survey shows Humala and Flores in a dead heat. In this commentary, Torres notes the propensity of the Peruvian electorate to vote for change and says the candidate best able to capture the mood of repudiation of President Toledo will win the next election. So far, Humala appears to be that candidate. Torres is not explicitly predicting a Humala victory, but this seems implicit in his analysis.
Cyber-Campaign: Por una Elección Moral
I just found (thanks to fellow blogger Utero de Marita!) this cyber-campaign Campaña por una Elección Moral frente al Proceso Electoral led by a group of young citizens who are critical of the current electoral process and the three leading candidates (Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia). The cyber-campaigners propose to support a coalition Valentin Paniagua-Javier Diez Canseco-Susana Villaran. We will follow their cyber-activities… Below you will find a copy of their manifesto.
Financial Times: Arequipa, a Political Stronghold of Ollanta Humala
Hal Weitzman has written an insightful piece in the Financial Times on Ollanta Humala’ support in the south of Peru.
Lourdes Flores Moving Away from her “Hyperpersonal” Campaign
Lourdes Flores may be considering some changes to her hyperpersonal campaign strategy given the results of the latest APOYO national poll. Suggestions proposed by members of her alliance include:
– Undertake fewer walks through neighbourhoods and more public meetings.
– Provide opportunities for media exposure to representantives of National Unity. So far, Lourdes Flores has been the only voice.
– Use more local political analysis and less imported political marketing.
– Less TV advertisement by congressional candidates.
– Talk about concrete themes like education, investment and employment.
Such advice suggests the fraying of internal unity.
The Frustrated Negotiations Between Javier Diez Canseco & Ollanta Humala
In an interview with La República, Javier Diez Canseco (of the Socialist Party, or Partido Socialista) describes his unsuccessful negotiation to reach a political agreement with Ollanta Humala earlier in the campaign.
There are more details in a previous posting.
Michael Voss (BBC): Candidates Court the Poor
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006. Fotos: Yanina Patricio.
Michael Voss, enviado especial de la BBC, realizó la crónica “Peru candidates court the poor” alrededor del clima político-electoral en el país a menos de un mes de realizarse las elecciones. Candidatos disputando el voto presidencial haciendo de la pobreza el punto principal en el debate político.
Francisco Durand: The Economic Marriage of Dionisio Romero and Lourdes Flores
Few analysts know as much about economic power groups in Peru as Francisco Durand. In this commentary, published in La Republica, he discusses the economic linkages between Dionisio Romero, the richest man in Peru, and Lourdes Flores.
Interview with Martha Chávez
Empate virtual de Humala y Flores provocó caída de la Bolsa
Pollsters Analyze Ollanta Humala´s Rise
Tras conocerse los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo, Manuel Saavedra, Oscar Díaz y Raúl Chamamé señalaron que el crecimiento de Ollanta Humala se debería al voto fujimorista y a la influencia de los ataques de Alan García a Lourdes Flores.
Divisions in National Unity
Jose Barba Caballero has criticized Lourdes Flores and stated that she will not win the general elections in the first round, but will beat Ollanta Humala in the second round.
Juan Carlos Tafur sobre las estrategias finales del APRA y Unidad Nacional
Garcia Calls Flores A Demagogue; Humala calls Legislators “Comechados”
The negative campaigning continues. Alan Garcia has attacked Lourdes Flores, comparing her to Ollanta Humala as a “demagogue.” Humala, for his part, accuses the members of congress who threaten to investigate the matter of his military record as people who eat lying on their backs (comechados).
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich on the last month of the campaign
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 10, 2006
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich says that while anything is possible in the last 30 days of the campaign, it would be a big surprise if there was not a second round with Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala or Alan Garcia. I agree with Álvarez Rodrich, and would add that the race between the three is tightening.
The top three candidates have 80 percent of the preferences of the decided voters. The spread between them has been cut in half, however, from around 20 percent to about 10 percent, in the past month. Until recently, Lourdes Flores Nano, the candidate for National Unity, has held a strong lead. She has hovered around 30-35 percent throughout most of the campaign, occasionally slipped below 30 percent or rising as high as 37 or 38 percent. In a recent poll, she stood at 33 percent. Meanwhile Ollanta Humala, who emerged from nowhere to take first spot temporarily in mid-January, has settled at around 25 percent of the vote since then. The most marked tendency in the last few weeks has been the rise of Alan Garcia, who now stands close to Humala with about 22 percent of the vote.
Critican la propuesta de Alan Garcia sobre retorno de “Jueces sin Rostro”
Durante un mitin el pasado martes 7 en la plaza Manco Capac en La Victoria, el candidato por el APRA, Alan García manifesto ser partidario frente al terrorismo de los “jueces sin rostro” en un eventual gobierno aprista. Tras ser criticadas inmediatamente por Marcial Ayaipoma, titular del Congreso; Alcides Chamorro, ex titular de la Comisión de Justicia e Ismael Vega, representante de la sección peruana de Amnistía Internacional por considerarlo antidemocrático, un retroceso en los DDHH e Inconstitucional; el dia de ayer se sumó el candidato presidencial del Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, quien manifestó que esta figura no está permitida por la Constitución.
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich sobre el último mes de la campaña de Lourdes Flores
Peru Election 2006 in the news
35 candidatos al Congreso fueron retirados por el JNE
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones ratificó las tachas contra 35 candidatos al congreso con fallos inapelables. Las organizaciones políticas que más bajas sufrieron son Alianza Para el Progreso de Natale Amprimo, con 11 candidatos tachados, y Concertación Descentralista de Susana Villarán, con 10.
PAIT Redux?
APRA has taken an old idea and tailored it to win votes among youth. In the 1985-1990 government of Alan García Pérez, the Program of Support for Temporary Income (PAIT) was a make-work program that employed thousands of informal sector workers, offering a supplement to their income. It now plans to re-tool the program to target youth. PAIT was managed by party loyalists and used for electoral ends. More importantly, it was a bandage program that formed part of an unsustainable economic strategy. Enrique Cornejo, one of APRA’s main economic thinkers, promises that this time the PAIT will be more transparent. Clearly APRA strategists are calculating that the idea of reviving the PAIT will win more youth votes that it will lose votes by reminding the electorate old enough to remember the bad old days of the first García government.
Flores seeks undecided voters
Lourdes Flores, candidate for National Unity, has recognized that she has dropped slightly in the polls, and has announced that her campaign will focus on picking up support from the roughly 25 percent of the electorate that remains undecided. She accepts that some people who have supported her may have defected, and she will seek to win them back. She disagrees with those who argue that the polls understate the strength of her rivals, saying the evidence is that may of the undecided voters view her candidacy with sympathy. Flores is also sticking to her strategy of focusing on character rather than issues. “The problem is not who sets the issues, but who do you believe.”
Nadine Heredia’s Anti-Fujimorismo
Nadine Heredia, wife of Ollanta Humala, has emerged as an increasingly important part of Humala’s campaign. She was on the television program “Día D” last night, with Nicolas Lucar. She described her involvement in student politics in opposition to the government of Alberto Fujimori as a formative part of her development, and she said that Ollanta Humala attempted to organize uprisings against Fujimori on two occasions prior to the rebellion on October 29, 2000. She criticized Lourdes Flores and her political party, the Popular Christian Party, for being too close to the Fujimori regime. Heredia says that if Humala is elected he will clean up corruption in the armed forces, and that one of the first things he would do would be to remove all the military officers who signed notes of allegiance to Vladimiro Montesinos under the Fujimori regime. For Fernando Rospigliosi, a prominent analyst of defense issues and former Minister of the Interior, the proposal to purge the armed forces would be used as a pretext to assert control over the armed forces, Chavez-style.
Congressional Candidates Challenging Discrimination in Peru
Fabiola Bazo
March 3, 2006
Susel Paredes, Jana Villayzan and Tito Bracamonte, congressional candidates for the Socialist Party, gathered with a group of friends and supporters in a local chifa on the evening of March 3. Representatives from human rights organizations, academia and the arts joined the candidates, who were feeling boosted by the results of the latest Catholic University national poll. The poll gave the Socialist Party more than 5% of voter intentions; it also found that more than one third of the voters interviewed in Lima would approve of the election of a gay or lesbian candidate for congress.
Susel Paredes, Congresional Candidate
Photo: J. Bazo
Paredes is a long time member of the Socialist Party. She was chosen congressional candidate through internal primaries. To win the internal election she travelled across the country seeking to win the support of labor and grassroots organizations as a lesbian candidate. She was ranked 5th out of 35 candidates.
Tito Bracamonte, Candidate to Andean Parliament and former president of the Homosexual Movement of Lima (MOHL)
Photo: J. Bazo
Jana Villayzan, Candidate to Andean Parliament
Photo: J. Bazo
A note on the gathering (in Spanish) can be found at: Diario de Lima Gay
Fernando Rospigliosi: Candidatos “chicos” no tienen opción
Para los analistas políticos Fernando Rospigliosi, Alfredo Torres y Manuel Saavedra, la distancia que existe entre Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala y Alan García con el resto de los aspirantes es tan marcada que ninguno de los llamados candidatos “chicos”, de Valentín Paniagua hacia abajo, puede remontarla en circunstancias normales. La eventual segunda vuelta se definirá entre dos de estos tres candidatos.
Apogeo y crisis de Fernando Olivera
David Hidalgo Vega, periodista de El Comercio, muestra un perfil de la trayectoria del líder del Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM).
Who Vandalized the Files on Humala’s Military Record?
The Ministry of Defense, after weeks of stonewalling about Ollanta Humala’s military record, now acknowledges that its files on Humala have been vandalized. The material on the key periods of interest to the public (including 1992 when Humala was in Madre Mia) are gone. Calls for the Minister of Defense Marciano Rengifo’s resignation are intensifying.
Lourdes Flores’ Inner Circle
Here are two excellent reports on Lourdes Flores’ campaign. The first, by Pedro Tenorio of Peru21, focuses on her inner circle, and indicates that Colombian campaign strategist Gloria Isabel Ramirez (aka Glorisa) is the architect of Flores’ strategy of direct contact with the people (walks through shantytowns, trips to the provinces). The second report, by Gustavo Gorriti for La Republica, also focuses on Flores’ key campaign strategists, with more discussion Glorisa as well as Rafael Fernandez Stoll Marchena, another key organizer.
The X-Files of Ollanta Humala
El caso de las presuntas violaciones a los DDHH por parte del comandante(r) Ollanta Humala en la base contrasubversiva de Madre Mía, ha dado un giro inesperado. Ante la denuncia formulada en el programa periodístico La Ventana Indiscreta, el Ministerio de Defensa (Mindef) confirmó la desaparición de parte de su expediente, sustrayéndose los informes de eficiencia de 1992, con una estadía de seis meses en la base de Madre Mía, Tingo María, como responsable del batallón Contrasubversivo Nº 331, asi como los de 1999 en el cuartel militar de Huancayo como miembro de la División de Infantería y del 2002 como agregado militar en Francia.
La documentación que debió ser enviada al Archivo General del Ejército debido a que Humala había pasado al retiro, estaba indebidamente en poder del coronel Luis Pereira Briceño, jefe de la Sección de Administración de la Carrera del Oficial (SACO) de Artillería. El ministro de Defensa, Marciano Rengifo, sostuvo que los “informes de eficiencia” que faltan del expediente del comandante en retiro no confirman si es que este fue el “capitán Carlos”, aunque tendrá que explicar ante el Congreso esta mutilación en el legajo de Humala.
Alan García y su repunte en las últimas encuestas
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Oscar Farje.
Alan García, candidato presidencial por el APRA, habló sobre su repunte en las últimas encuestas (de las que antes criticaba), su campaña agresiva en los próximos 40 días para convencer a la población de que es la opción, pero sobretodo, para captar el voto juvenil y de las madres de familia a ritmo de reggaetón y vasos de cerveza.
Unidad Nacional no modificará su estrategia de campaña y propaganda
Source: Perú 21, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Martín Pauca.
La respuesta a la campaña “reggaetonera” del APRA. Tras experimentar un ligero bajón en la última encuesta de Apoyo, el día de ayer se presentaron los dos primeros (de una serie de 5) spots televisivos de Unidad Nacional, cada uno destinado a un tema específico: La emigración de jóvenes sin trabajo, problemática de la salud, seguridad ciudadana, generación de empleo y educación. Representantes de la alianza política indicaron que no se piensa incluir algún ritmo de moda para contrarrestar el spot del Apra.
Se incrementa la crisis en Alianza por el Futuro
Cada día aumentan más los rumores del estallido de una grave crisis al interior de Alianza por el Futuro. Tras el poco apoyo de la población a través de las encuestas, la candidatura de Martha Chávez ha dividido a los seguidores de Fujimori. Augusto Alvárez Rodrich, Director de Perú 21, comentó en su editorial del domingo 26 de febrero sobre las duras perspectivas electorales del fujimorismo.