Peru Election 2006

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Archive for the ‘The International Context’ Category

UPDATED: Evo Morales Invites Ollanta Humala to Bolivia

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evoyollanta.jpg
Source: La República, 09 de mayo del 2006
In a meeting that further emphasizes the region context of the election in Peru, Ollanta Humala met with President Evo Morales in Bolivia. Morales said he has been falsely accused of terrorism, of narcotrafficking, of being a communist. “As the terrorists are today the government in Bolivia, we invite you compañero Humala” he said in an ironic tone. As Renato Cisneros of El Comercio notes, Humala has been accused of human rights abuses not terrorism.
Morales expressed his disappointment with the government of Peru and his hope that Humala will win the presidential elections. Without an Humala victory, Venezuela and Bolivia will subordinated to a pro-FTA majority among the Andean nations. Humala said his current disadvantage in the polls can turned around by reminding voters of the APRA government of the 1980s.
May 09: Se ha añadido la cobertura de los medios de prensa nacionales.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 9th, 2006 at 6:38 am

Interview with Fabián Novak

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Asked whether the OAS can help Peru in the dispute with Venezuela, Fabian Novak said that the OAS ought to help but lamentably it has not. “Nobody expected sanction,” he said, “but at least send a signal (una llamada de atencion) to Chavez that he respect the articles of the Charter [of the OAS].” The problem, according to Novak, is that there is are a number of countries that depend on Chavez for oil in the OAS, and they are reluctant to risk this benefit.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 8th, 2006 at 7:39 am

Pedro Francke Editorial on NGO Opposition to FTA

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Written by Michael Ha

May 8th, 2006 at 7:12 am

El “Efecto Evo Morales” y su repercusión en la región andina

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Source: La República, 08 de mayo del 2006
La nacionalización de los hidrocarburos modificará relaciones económicas y políticas en la región.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 8th, 2006 at 7:05 am

Venezuela: Peru Escalated the Conflict by Going to OAS

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The Venezuelan minister of foreign affairs, Alí Rodríguez, claims Peru escalated the conflict between the two nations by going to the Organization of American States and making “false” accusations. For this reason, Venezuela has recalled its ambassador.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 6th, 2006 at 4:11 pm

Garcia Sayan: Geopolitical Significance of 2nd Round

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Diego Garcia Sayan says that second round election has broad geopolitical significance. Peru will either be part of the latest version of Latin American populism with Chavez and Morales, or part of a more pragmatic social democratic option represented by Lula.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 6th, 2006 at 4:06 pm

John Crabtree: Bolivia Stakes its Claim

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Written by Michael Ha

May 5th, 2006 at 6:46 pm

U de Lima Barometro, Lima & Callao, April 29-30, 2006: Peruvians Assess Andean Leaders

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Survey conducted by the Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima. Sample: 631 men and women interviewed in 40 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Margin of error: +/-3.98% . Download file

Written by Michael Ha

May 5th, 2006 at 1:20 pm

Nicolas Maduro: Peruvian Press Racist

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Source: Correo, 05 de mayo del 2006
Nicolas Maduro, president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, has accused the Peruvian press of racism for depicting Hugo Chavez as a gorilla. Some Peruvian newspapers doctor images or use collages to reinforce front-page headlines. This is not done by El Comerio or Gestion. However, even reputable papers like Peru.21 and La Primera routinely edit images for effect. In this case, the press gave the Chavez government reason to object.
Nicolás Maduro, presidente del Parlamento venezolano acusó a los medios de prensa peruana de representar a la oligarquía limeña racista, por compartir sus mismas expresiones racistas al comparar al presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez con un gorila.
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Source: Peru 21, 29 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

May 5th, 2006 at 8:16 am

Energy Summit is Good News for Bolivia

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Maxwell A. Cameron and Jorge Bazo
May 5, 2006.

An energy summit in Puerto Iguazú in northern Argentina brought good news to the government of Evo Morales in Bolivia. Néstor Kirchner, Inacio Lula da Silva, Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales signed a document in which they agreed to guarantee the supply of gas between the four countries and to cooperate to set the price. Lula said that Brazil recognizes that Bolivia can define its sovereignty over its natural resources. Chavez also came away from the meeting satisfied. He said the nationalization of oil and gas in Bolivia has not generated major tensions.
Bolivia’s neighbors need gas, and this is a key reason for their willingness to cooperate. Peru’s president Alejandro Toledo said he would never nationalize a natural resource industry, but he may find himself out of step with the region when he attends a meeting of the European Community with Latin American nations in Vienna on May 12.
In his column in La Republica, Mirko Lauer notes the moderation in the response of the affected countries. This moderation may be eroded as opposition forces within countries like Spain push for a more aggressive reaction. However, as Lauer notes, what is at stake here is less the direct economic affects of the measure and more the larger ideological context. According to Lauer, the evolution of events in Bolivia is key for countries like Peru where there are strong movements in public opinion interested in renegotiating the rules governing transnational corporations, and leaders who have offered to alter these rules.
More broadly, the nationalization of an industry in a Latin American country alters the political agenda in the region. It widens the scope of policy options that are perceived as feasible. After two decades of neoliberalism, the issue of control over natural resources and the possibility of expropriation of foreign assets is back on the table.
Resumen: Tras reunirse en la Cumbre Energética realizada en Puerto Iguazú, al norte de Argentina, Néstor Kirchner, Inacio Lula da Silva, Hugo Chávez y Evo Morales firmaron un documento en el que se garantiza preservar la provisión del gas y discutir bilateral y racionalmente su precio. En Lima, el presidente del Perú, Alejandro Toledo, afirmó que aunque respetaba las decisiones que tomaban estos 4 jefes de Estado, él nunca nacionalizaría un recurso natural como el gas.
For another view, see Annette Hester.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 5th, 2006 at 7:52 am

Nationalization of Gas!

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Written by Michael Ha

May 4th, 2006 at 4:22 pm

Peru Takes Dispute with Venezuela to Permanent Council of the OAS

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May 3: Peru took the dispute with Venezuela to the Organization of American States this morning, vigorously complaining that Venezuela has violated the principle of non-intervention. The Peruvian ambassador to the OAS requested permission to show a video to sustain his position. The Venezuelan ambassador objected, and the chair sided with Venezuela over the objections of other countries including El Salvador and Canada.
The event was webcast live by the OAS.
May 4: We have added local coverage on this issue

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Written by Michael Ha

May 4th, 2006 at 9:05 am

UPDATED: NYT editorial

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Maxwell A. Cameron
May 3, 2006

This is a puzzling editorial in a number of ways. First, there are factual mistakes which are surprising given the authoritative source. The election is not on May 28, for example. It has just been called for June 4. Second, Toledo’s approval rating is not in the single digits, it is at 21 percent according to the last DATUM poll. Admittedly, that is pretty low, but is there any need to exaggerate his unpopularity?
The characterization of Humala as “a military man whose family advocates the shooting of gays, Jews and Chilean investors” seems a little harsh. The use of firing squads is not something that Humala has himself endorsed. Who among us does not have family members who believe crazy things? Equally harsh is the suggestion that of the populist leaders who have come to power in the Andes, Humala would be the “most dangerous yet.” In what sense?
To call the second round an “appalling choice” is also pretty harsh. A colleague of mine commented that there seems to be a missing paragraph here explaining just why Garcia is such an “appalling” option and why he “would make things worse.” I would accept the description of Garcia’s last government, but the question that many Peruvians are grappling with is whether there is reason to assume Garcia and APRA would govern as badly today. The Times offers no basis for judgment.
The final line would seem to be unobjectionable: “There could be no clearer warning than this of the importance of economic development that includes the poor.”
Read also:
The New York Times’ sorry duo
Parecidos, pero no iguales
May 04: Hemos añadido la cobertura y comentarios de los medios de prensa escrita.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 4th, 2006 at 8:37 am

Nationalization of Oil & Gas in Bolivia: Reactions in Peru

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Below you will find national and international media coverage for May 3 and 4 on this issue. La Republica examined today APRA’s and UPP’s proposals on energy resources management.
Read also:
Evo Morales Announces Nationalization of Oil and Gas
Bolivia nationalizes oil and gas resources
Evoluciones escenograficas e intervencionismo bolivariano
“Nacionalizar en el sentido de”

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Written by Michael Ha

May 4th, 2006 at 7:58 am

Interviews with Vidar Helgesen

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Written by Michael Ha

May 4th, 2006 at 7:43 am

Hugo Chavez, in Visit with Evo Morales in Bolivia, Recalls Ambassador to Peru

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Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is in Bolivia to discuss the nationalization of oil and gas with his counterpart, Evo Morales. Morales announced the nationalization after a visit with Chavez and Fidel Castro in Cuba. A group of Venezuelan experts from PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, are in Bolivia, presumably to offer assistance. Chavez said that, in the face of the decision by Lima to recall its ambassador, Venezuela, “with much sorrow”, must do the same and recall Venezuela’s ambassador in Peru. In effect, relations between the two countries are broken.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 3rd, 2006 at 8:43 pm

Ollanta Humala Responds to Chavez

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It took him 5 days, but Ollanta Humala finally found a good response to the crisis generated by the statements made by Hugo Chavez concerning Alan Garcia. “Leave our thieves alone” he said to Chavez. “We will take care of our own thieves.” Had this witty riposte been delivered in the moment Chavez made his remarks, Garcia would have had more difficulty earning political capital off the event.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 3rd, 2006 at 3:48 pm

Statement from UPP on Andean Nations Community (CAN)

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Written by Michael Ha

May 3rd, 2006 at 9:32 am

Interview with Aldo Panfichi

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Written by Michael Ha

May 3rd, 2006 at 8:00 am

Chancellor Oscar Maurtua to Keep OAS Mission Informed

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Peru’s Chancellor, Oscar Maurtua, has indicated that he is in permanent contact with the Electoral Observation Mission of the OAS in Peru. The Mission Chief, Lloyd Axworthy, will be “informed of the evolution of events” he said. Maurtua refused to speculate about whether Peru would expel the Venezuelan ambassador, but he insisted that the Peruvian government seeks to hold elections free from foreign interference.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 3rd, 2006 at 7:04 am

Garcia on Chavez: His bark worse than his bite

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Alan Garcia says Hugo Chavez’s bark is worse than his bite, and that the Venezuelan leader will not cut diplomatic ties with Peru. Claiming, without a shred of evidence mind you, that there are Venezuelan advisors working for Humala in various Departments of Peru, Garcia called on the Peruvian government to investigate the entry of Venezuelans into Peru. In response, Daniel Abugattas, spokesperson for Ollanta Humala, objected to the “stench of McCarthyism” in Garcia’s statements.
Scholar Ernesto Velit said Venezuela could be thrown out of the Organization of American States (OAS) if Chavez persists in interfering in internal Peruvian affairs. Peru could appeal to the Permanent Council of the OAS to ask for such a sanction.
President Alejandro Toledo is apparently considering the idea of a complaint to the OAS. Not only is he now threatening to throw the Venezuelan ambassador out of Peru if Chavez continues to interfere in Peruvian affairs, he also said the Peruvian government has decided to take the matter up with the OAS. Toledo will apparently meet his Venezuelan counterpart in Vienna next week.
Editorialists are having a field day with this dispute. My favorite editorial is by Federico Salazar. In “Vote for crazy horse,” he argues that Garcia has deliberately provoked Chavez, who fell into the trap; now Humala is caught in a no-win position. Even Garcia’s most acerbic critics–those who popularly refer to the former president as a “crazy horse”–cannot help but side with him in this dispute.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 2nd, 2006 at 2:02 pm

Evo Morales Announces Nationalization of Oil and Gas

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In a surprisingly radical move, President Evo Morales of Bolivia annouced the nationalization of oil and gas refineries in Bolivia. He promised that this is the first in a wave of expropriations in other sectors including mining, forestry and land.
The nationalization involves the transfer 51% of shares of oil and gas firms to the state. Foreign firms would be given 18% of oil and gas revenues during a 180 days period as they renegotiate their contracts. With these measures, Morales affirms that Bolivia will recover control over natural resources. The state will assume control over industrialization and distribution of oil and gas.
The reaction in Peru has been swift. Eduardo Garivoto, spokesperson for the UPP, said that Ollanta Humala do not propose to expropriate private firms. The goal of UPP is a mixed economy, something in between a strictly neoliberal market and a centralized and planned economy.
Speaking in the Ventana Indiscreta with Cecilia Valenzuela, Alan Garcia said he thought Bolivia’s Evo Morales was making a mistake, but he blamed Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela. According to Garcia, Chavez can pursue confrontational policies because it has a immense quantities of oil and that allow him to engage in “tropical fantasies,” but Bolivia has small reserves and a low per capita income and can ill-afford to enter into confrontation with foreign investors.
Bloggers:
See “Bolivia nationalizes oil- and gas resources” in Un Lobo in Peru and “La primera estatización del siglo XXI” in Gran Combo Club for more.
Update May 2: Reactions covered by local media have been added below.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 2nd, 2006 at 10:35 am

Teodoro Petkoff: “Chávez violates Peru’s Sovereignty”

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In this interview, Teodoro Petkoff (editor of TalCual and a critic of President Hugo Chavez) says Chavez is blackmailing the Peruvian people by making relations between the two countries conditional upon voters electing who Chavez wants. This, he says, is a violation of Peru’s sovereignty.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 2nd, 2006 at 7:29 am

Hugo Chavez’s Strategy of Carrots and Sticks

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Maxwell A. Cameron
May 1, 2006

According to the BBC, Venezuela is spending billions of dollars of its massive oil revenues on projects designed to enhance Chavez’s influence in the region as a counter-balance to the hegemony of the United States. An opaque $4 billion fund has been put at the discretion of the President. It is estimated that Venezuela has already spent as much as $25 billion on various projects to enhance its influence in the region since 1999.
Chavez recently said that if Alan Garcia is elected in Peru he would have to recall his ambassador “because Venezuela will not have relations with that thief.” He then called for Ollanta Humala to win the election: “Ollanta, save Peru, compañero, and you will have all our support!”
These statements appear to be part of a strategy of “carrots and sticks.” If Peruvians voters support Ollanta Humala, Chavez will use his oil revenue to help Peru; if they do not, he will break diplomatic relations. The not-subtle delivery of this message in the middle of an election campaign is seen by Peruvian diplomats as worse than inappropriate–it is contrary to Venezuela’s commitments as a member of the United Nations and the Organization of American States.
In response, Peru recalled its ambassador to Venezuela, Carlos Urrutia. This prompted William Lara, Venezuela’s Minister of Information, to call Alejandro Toledo the “office boy” and “puppet” of George Bush. Lara said Venezuela would not withdraw its ambassador nor fall into provocations. He also said Garcia, who had asked for a debate with Chavez on CNN, lacked the stature to debate with the Venezuelan leader.
Ollanta Humala lamented the recall of the Peruvian ambassador and tried to distance himself from the dispute by taking issue with both the statements by Chavez and by Garcia. However, he said that he cannot ask Hugo Chavez to cease making statements about Peru. “I cannot ask that of the president. I am a candidate to the presidency.” He said the dispute involved three individuals: Chavez, Garcia and Toledo: “This should not affect bilateral relations. External relations are turning into verbal problems, and this should not be a theme in the election. This is not a problem for Peru, but one between three actors which, leaving aside who started it, everyone laments has reached these levels.”
Humala also said that Garcia does not represent Peru’s sovereignty, and he rejected the claim that Chavez is his political godfather (an accusation made by Garcia). “We nationalists are a sovereign project” he said, “the president of the United States, George Bush is godfather of Toledo and Garcia.” Daniel Abugattas, who will be a member of the next congress for Humala’s Union for Peru (UPP)–mixing his metaphors a little–accused Garcia of mounting a circus and using it as a smokescreen to avoid debating real issues.
Nadine Heredia, Humala’s wife, also disagreed with Peru’s demarche. She deplored the insults and name-calling between Chavez and Garcia, and called for a higher level of dialogue. “We are not in agreement with what has happened” she said. At the same time, she did not believe the dispute reached the point of justifying the recall of an ambassador. According to Heredia, Garcia–who she called the candidate of the right, of the oligarchy–provoked the dispute, and Chavez overreacted. She suggested that Garcia was trying to create a smokescreen to avoid a debate with Humala, and recommended that he have a manzanilla tea.
Garcia said that “Nationalism has become a boomerang against Humala and his protector and godfather. Now, nationalist Peru is against the diplomatic and political invasion of Venezuela in Peru.” According to Peru.21, Garcia appears to enjoy the role of defender of Peru’s sovereignty. He reserved his harshest words for Chavez, who he accused of being a drunk and a thug. “Who does he think he is? Sadam Hussein, and because he has petroleum he can takeover other countries, like Kuwait?”
President Toledo also warmed to the role of defender of Peru. “I will not allow Mr. Chavez or Mr. Morales to express themselves the way they have” intoned Toledo. “Mr. Chavez, learn to govern democratically. Learn to work with us” he said.
The decision to recall the ambassador must have been taken by Toledo personally, since it appeared to catch by surprise an official as powerful as Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, the president of the council of ministers. Kuczynski had advised against escalating the conflict. The Chancellor (or minister responsible for external relations), Óscar Maúrtua, undoubtedly had a hand to play in the decision. He was on record earlier saying “the supreme good of the country is to ensure the election develops normally in Peru.”
Diego Garcia Sayan supports the measure. He is the former minister of external relations who manages the Comision Andina de Juristas (Andean Jurists Commission) a non-governmental organization which is not much liked by Chavez. Before the ambassador was recalled, Garcia Sayan had said that “the statement made on Friday by the Chancellery is quite correct” but he noted that it was missing a logical implication: the recall of the ambassador. “The threats by Chavez are unacceptable. The recall could have practical effects, but it is a symbolic move.” According to Garcia Sayan, the goal of recalling the ambassador is not to break all diplomatic relations with Venezuela but to downgrade diplomatic representation as a gesture of protest.
The decision to recall of the ambassador was supported by Valentin Paniagua, the former interim president of Peru and unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election. The decision was also supported by Lourdes Flores, another unsuccessful presidential candidate who was the target of earlier jabs by Chavez.
All the fuss between Lima and Caracas has gotten the attention of policymakers in Washington. The Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, issued a press release today in which he said: “restoring peace and democracy required an enormous effort on the part of our countries in decades past, and therefore we should do everything necessary to preserve peace and democracy, and avoid situations that could undermine them.” He placed himself at the disposal of the parties to find a cooperative solution.

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Written by Michael Ha

May 1st, 2006 at 8:35 am

Alan Garcia Frames Election as Choice between Chavez and Peru

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Maxwell A. Cameron
April 30, 2006

Alan Garcia wants to take the dispute with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez to the bank.
The candidate for APRA says that the choice in this election is between Chavez and Peru. Alluding to Ollanta Humala, Garcia said: “I believe we now have a candidate, that of Mr. Chavez, and we must choose between Chavez and Peru, nothing more; we must choose between interference and the right of the Peruvian people to self-determination.”
Garcia criticized the passivity of Ollanta Humala in the face of the most recent interference of Chavez in Peruvian politics. Humala, he said, subscribes to a “false nationalism.”
Garcia warned that Chavez has an imperial appetite, but he has made a mistake by picking on Peru. Perhaps Chavez can intimidate leaders in other places, he said, but “I am not someone to submit to yelling and insults.” He pointed out that the Peruvian constitution says that the president personifies the nation. By calling President Alejandro Toledo and Alan Garcia “alligators from the same well” Chavez offends the Peruvian people, said Garcia.
Garcia also said he has not provoked Chavez. All he has done, he said, is to clearly define the differences between his own positions and the statements made by the Venezuelan president concerning Peru. “I did not attack him. For some time Chavez has interfered in Peruvian politics. He has become a person accustomed to barbarism, to insults against he who personifies Peru, which is Mr. Toledo, against the Peruvian people, against a candidate, and finally against me.”

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Written by Max

April 30th, 2006 at 5:31 pm

OAS to Pronounce on Venezuelan Interference in Peruvian Electoral Process

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Written by Michael Ha

April 30th, 2006 at 5:25 pm

Peruvian Government Recalls Ambassador from Caracas

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Now from Habana, Cuba… The heated debate between president Hugo Chavez and the Peruvian government continued today. Chavez, Fidel Castro and Evo Morales signed a trade agreement to “favour all people.” In Lima, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski called the treaty a “merely political” one, because the three nations have little to trade beyond oil. In Caracas, Venezuelan presidential hopeful Teodoro Petkoff criticized Chavez’s interference in Peruvian affairs. This evening in Lima, the Peruvian government recalled his Ambassador from Caracas.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 29th, 2006 at 6:32 pm

Hugo Chavez, Alan Garcia, and the Ghost of Simon Bolivar

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Maxwell A. Cameron
April 29, 2006

Alan Garcia has been doing everything possible to pick a fight with Hugo Chavez, and, in the end, Chavez could not resist responding to Garcia’s attacks. The enmity between the two leaders goes back a long way. Accion Democratica (AD) is APRA’s counterpart in Venezuela. Hugo Chavez led a coup attempt against the AD government of President Carlos Andres Perez in 1992. Alan Garcia and Carlos Andres Perez are compadres.
Garcia has been launching torpedoes at Chavez for the better part of a fortnight. First, he attacked Chavez for pulling out of the Andean Community. On Thursday, April 20, Garcia called Chavez “Anti-Bolivarian.” “This is the second time in Latin American history that a Venezuelan government has broken the unity that the Liberator Simon Bolivar sought for our Andean republics” he said. According to Garcia, Chavez was following the footsteps of the dictator José Antonio Páez who separated Venezuela from the “Gran Colombia” in the 19th century. “The tomb of the Liberator Simon Bolivar in Santa Martha must be suffering certain commotions at this moment.”
Chavez did not respond. So, two days later, Garcia renewed his attack. “It hurts me that Venezuela proposes to abandon the Andean Community when it was a Venezuelan, the Liberator Simon Bolivar, who called for a union of Andean republics.” He then said that Chavez “is not only killing Bolivar, he is causing his country to go backward economically.”
Still, there was no response from Chavez. However, Evo Morales joined Chavez in criticizing Peru’s negotiation of a free trade agreement, calling outgoing President Alejandro Toledo a “traitor.” Garcia responded on Monday, April 24, criticizing the “grave error” of Chavez and his “pupils” in the rest of South America, including Evo Morales and Ollanta Humala, for undermining the Andean Community. He called Morales’ comments “feverish.” Garcia also said Humala should not try to avoid a debate by proposing, instead, a series of debates between the members of the teams of each party. “If he does not want to debate, it would be simpler to debate with the person who inspires and leads him” said Garcia in allusion to Chavez.
Finally, on April 28, Chavez blasted back. “We will not have relations with a president of this nature, with a thief, a cardsharp. Imagine in one of these summits, he might come and steal my money!” Chávez compared Garcia with Carlos Andres Perez. “It would be a curse for this robber to return. Look what happened when Carlos Andres Perez returned. He [Garcia] is the Carlos Andres Perez of Peru.” [Note: CAP was impeached for corruption]. Chavez went on to exhort Ollanta Humala to win. “God free Peru from a bandit such as this president,” he said of Garcia.
Chavez’s open endorsement of Humala and his attacks on Garcia are likely to benefit Garcia. Humala said Chavez’s comments were lamentable, but that Garcia had been looking for a fight with Chavez. He said the dispute is between Garcia and Chavez. This reaction was taken by editorialists as tepid.
The attacks by Chavez gave Garcia a chance to play victim while shifting the media spotlight off Humala. “I reject in the name of the Peruvian people the permanent interference of this person, Hugo Chavez, in the politics of Peru and I think he is doing a lot of damage to his protégé Ollanta Humala” said Garcia. He then pointed out the hypocrisy of not wanting countries like Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia to trade with other nations while Venezuela’s biggest customer is the United States. He said Venezuela sells $40 billion dollars in petroleum to the US, and has 17,000 gas pumps in its northern neighbour. “With what moral authority, after selling all his petroleum to the US, does he come to tell us: you are traitors if you trade with the US.” Concerning the accusations of corruption, Garcia said: “He responds in the only way that a primitive being like he knows how. Insulting and treating me in the worst manner.”
For more background, see Gran Combo Club: Entre Chávez al norte y Morales al sur (2) and Entre Chávez al norte y Morales al sur (3)

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Written by Max

April 29th, 2006 at 1:23 pm

Investors and the Election

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Navigating a Peruvian Political Minefield, By Michael Brush, RealMoney.com Contributor, April 28, 2006 – 2:16 PM EDT
Financial writer Michael Brush says fears of nationalization are overblown. He recommends buying shares in Peruvian mines. Unfounded worries about a radical shift in Peru mean these share will ultimately rebound.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 29th, 2006 at 12:59 pm

Alan Garcia in Dispute with Hugo Chavez

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Hugo Chavez has reiterated his hope that Ollanta Humala will be elected in the second round of the Peruvian presidential election and not Alan Garcia, who he characterized as a robber and a bandit. President Chávez threatened to recall the Venezuelan ambassador to Lima if García is elected president. Garcia responded saying that Chavez is not acting like a statesperson and is a hypocrite because he condemns Peru for negotiating a free trade agreement with the United States which is also Venezuela’s biggest customer. This afternoon Garcia challenged Chavez to a political debate on CNN. President Alejandro Toledo has rejected Chavez’ interference in Peruvian political affairs. Garcia has called on the Organization of American States or other hemispheric organisms to intervene in this case. This evening, the Ministry of Foreign Relations of Peru delivered a diplomatic demarche to the government of Venezuela. A spontaneous demonstration against President Chavez took place this evening in front of the Venezuelan embassy in Lima. Demonstrators burned Chavez in effigy.
Read also: Simón Gorila ataca a Alan

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Written by Michael Ha

April 28th, 2006 at 7:13 pm

Constitutional Commission examines proposed referendum on FTA

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The issue of whether the FTA should be submitted to a referendum is being examined by a constitutional commission of the congress. Some argue that the issue should be placed before electoral authorities, not the legislature. In any event, the congress will have to decide whether to proceed with this initiative, the real purpose of which may be to force a public debate. On the strategy of the opposition, see arguments made by Javier Diez Canseco.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 26th, 2006 at 7:47 am

Evo Morales insists FTAs hurt the Andean Community

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Written by Michael Ha

April 26th, 2006 at 7:16 am

Debate on FTA intensifies

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The debate on the FTA has intensified as a result of criticisms of Peru and Colombia by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, as well as by President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, who has said Alejandro Toledo has betrayed the indigenous peoples of Peru by negotiating an FTA with the United States.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 7:44 am

The Nation (US) on Ollanta Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 8:37 am

Humberto Campodónico on the FTA with the US

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Humberto Campodonico analyzes how the FTA has become a theme in the second round election campaign.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 8:03 am

Financial Times Analysis of Peruvian Youth and Election Results

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In Peru, children of rich and poor dream of leaving
By Hal Weitzman in Lima
Financial Times on line, April 14 2006 19:08

Acording to Hal Weitzman, “young people in districts such as Villa Maria have long been attracted to the idea of escaping poverty by leaving Peru, but for many, last week’s elections could be the final push they need to do so.” Weitzman argues this feeling is also shared by children of the wealthy in Peru.
Note: You will need a registration to read this article.

Written by Michael Ha

April 17th, 2006 at 7:41 pm

Taking the Market for a Ride

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In late March emerging market analysts descended upon Peru to assess the state of their investments in the run-up to the election. A number of sources have independently confirmed that there were meetings with prominent Peruvian technocrats, including Fritz Dubois, of the Instituto Peruano de Economia, and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, all of whom offered assurances that everything was going well: they were confident that Lourdes Flores would win and Humala would be stopped. By the end of March it was amply clear that Flores was in trouble. Did Dubois and Kuczynski know something the rest of us did not? Or were they taking the markets for a ride?
Many market analysts figured out that the Dubois/Kuczynski posture was, shall we say, “optimistic.” In an interesting article in the Financial Times, Richard Lapper writes about how the markets were misinformed. “For weeks investment banks and their Peruvian contacts have been blithely assuring clients that Lourdes Flores, the pro-market favourite, was a sure winner in the second round of the contest. But for any observer who occasionally ventured outside the better-off Lima suburbs like San Isidro and Miraflores, it has been obvious for a long time that the 50 per cent of Peruvians earning less than $2 a day were unlikely to vote for a candidate so clearly associated with the interests of Lima-based elites.”

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Written by Michael Ha

April 17th, 2006 at 7:32 pm

Candidates Reject Call to Discuss FTA with Toledo

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Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia both dismissed Toledo’s call to talk with him about passing the Free Trade Agreement he has recently signed in the United States. Humala said Toledo is putting the cart before the horse by trying to start a dialogue when there is nothing left to discuss. Garcia responded with a similar criticism: there is little to talk about when the deal is done, he said. Only Lourdes Flores has agreed to talk with Toledo. Her party supports the FTA. Meanwhile, congress is examining a proposal for a referendum on the trade deal.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 14th, 2006 at 11:15 am

Reaction of Foreign Investors II

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Source: El Comercio, 13 de abril del 2006
The stock market seems to have stabilized probably for two reasons. First, a realisation by foreign investors that Garcia may be the lesser evil by reaching some sort of understanding on governability with Lourdes Flores. Secondly, the signature of the free trade agreement with the United States.
With the voting for the first round over, President Toledo is pushing for the FTA with the US to be approved by the sitting congress. Ollanta Humala rejects this. Lourdes Flores is a strong supporter of the FTA. The most ambiguous position is that of APRA, which is advocating a strategy of export-led growth, but which is in no rush to push the deal through the existing, much maligned, congress.
See also: Inversionistas recuperan confianza

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Written by Michael Ha

April 13th, 2006 at 8:47 am

UPDATED: The Reaction of Foreign Investors

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Note: we have added an article published in El Comercio today on the subject and a chart below outlining the evolution of the stock market during the last two days.
Foreign investors are starting to recognize that Flores may not make it into the second round. It will not take long for them to start to see Garcia as their salvation. Here is a comment from someone who knows investment circles well. The comment was made just before the election:
“…the sense is that, at least last week, investors in New York were slowly recognizing that Flores could not reach the second round. They had also more or less ‘priced in’ a victory by Humala, even in a second round, but as some investors told me, they were waiting to see what Humala does before giving up on Peru completely (I thinks there was also some hope that Flores could in fact win). The question everyone had was what would Humala do once in power. I don’t think the idea that Garcia could win is out there yet, but will soon. I have the impression that Garcia could actually defeat Humala (in fact, ___ told me this was their biggest fear, that Flores would not reach the second round). In this sense, I think prices of Peruvian assets will probably fall significantly on Monday, and for a while until people realize that AG is their favourite. The question will then become, at least here, if Garcia’s moderation is credible. People here will start wondering if Alan is the new Lula, and he can really exploit that if he wants.”
The same source goes on to talk about investors who were in virtual denial about the possibiliy of Flores failing to make it into the second round. I met with one financial analyst who had spent a couple of days in Lima before the election and was assured by senior government officials that all was well and Flores was a good bet and would win a second round easily. If Flores does not make it to the second round, there will be some shock in these circles. Once the shock subsides, there may be two consolations for investors. First, Humala’s relatively modest victory comes as a relief (see recommendations by Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan). Assuming Garcia holds his precarious lead, investors may come to see him as the lessor evil (from their perspective). Only APRA can save investors?
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Source: El Comercio, 12 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 12th, 2006 at 2:40 pm

The Second Round: Foreign Perspectives

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Written by Michael Ha

April 11th, 2006 at 9:00 am

Fernando Rospigliosi on the International Context of this Election

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Written by Michael Ha

April 9th, 2006 at 6:00 am

Financial Times Analysis of the Campaign

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Written by Michael Ha

April 7th, 2006 at 1:11 pm

More on Statements by Ollanta Humala in Página/12

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Victor Andres Garcia Belaunde, Congressional candidate for Frente de Centro, and Alberto Moreno, presidential candidate for Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, see some basis for Ollanta Humala’s claim that Lourdes Flores, should she be elected, would not last a year, if current economic policies continue under her rule. Ulises, brother of Ollanta Humala and presidential candidate for Avanza Pais, claims that a governemnt led by his brother would not last a year and predict a fall similar to Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador. Mirko Lauer analyzes the potential for political instability under governments led by Flores and Humala.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 6th, 2006 at 7:15 am

Washington Post coverage of the Peruvian Election

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Written by Michael Ha

April 6th, 2006 at 7:12 am

Interview with Ollanta Humala by Financial Times

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Peru nationalist targets global mining groups
By Hal Weitzman in Tacna, southern Peru
Financial Times.com, March 30 2006 03:00

“Ollanta Humala, the frontrunner in Peru’s presidential elections, has vowed to alter contracts with foreign investors that are currently ex-empt from paying royalties, a move that would affect global miners such as Newmont, BHP Billiton, Phelps Dodge, Falconbridge and Barrick. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Humala also pledged to introduce “21st-century nationalisation” and said he would refuse to sign the trade deal Peru has agreed with Washington. In addition, he promised to restrict imports from China, limit Chilean investment in Peru and end US-sponsored eradication of coca, the raw material for cocaine.”

Written by Michael Ha

March 29th, 2006 at 7:04 pm

Markets See Danger in Possible Humala Victory

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According to the Wall Street Journal, the markets have recognized the danger of a victory by Ollanta Humala. The wake-up call came with the publication of the recent APOYO poll on Monday, March 20. This poll was followed by another APOYO poll yesterday confirming the trend. The so-called “Humala effect” resulted in a 4 percent drop in the Lima Stock Exchange index and “sparked a sell-off in the Peruvian sol as well,” according to Mary O’Grady.
A recent meeting between the economic team of the UPP and the Sociedad Nacional de Mineria, Petroleo y Energia (SNMPE) left local business leaders “very worried.”
Some of our readers are financial analysts. Here is what one of them recently wrote to us, on condition of anonymity:
“It seems that Humala’s campaign is gathering a lot of steam. The Peruvian stock market and currency, especially of late, have been selling off on the news. Humala (at least in my eyes and in the eyes of a lot of my friends that manage money and invest in companies that have mining operations in Latin America) brings great uncertainty to the downside. In Peru, I now not only have to worry about the individual merits of the investment, but also the risk that I wake up one morning and Latin America is in disarray because these left leaning countries (including Peru) decide that state run enterprises make more sense. I think the history of nationalization and its chilling effects on long term economic growth and income levels are clear and hopefully even radicals, if they truly have the best interest of the country at heart, understand that it is a mistake. Expropriation is a low probability event, but that probability ticks higher now, which I think will hurt Peru from global capital attraction perspective, at least until Humala can be watched for awhile. Peruvian credit spreads are now trading much wider than countries whose economic and political climate I considered far inferior just a few months ago.
“One could live with higher taxes and a less business friendly environment, especially if somehow these frictional costs on capitalism actually raised the quality of life for the poor and lower classes. From my view, it seems that the Peruvian economy should already be swimming in revenues from what is extracted from mining companies and other natural resource players in the country – a good deal of the problem is not revenues but ineffective governments not redeploying receipts into programs that help uplift the poor (easier said than done I know)…Now, in general commodity prices have been quite strong and nearly all mines should be profitable should these prices hold, so there will be some tolerance on existing investments, but I think the pace of new investment will slow short-term as people like me are unwilling to commit more capital.”

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Written by Michael Ha

March 28th, 2006 at 7:52 am

Humala Complains to OAS

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Ollanta Humala has complained to the OAS that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Alejandro Toledo are interfering in the electoral process. He is also complaining that only about 10 percent of the military, who are able to vote for the first time in this election, will actually be able to do so.

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Written by Michael Ha

March 10th, 2006 at 6:36 am

Lloyd Axworthy in Second Visit to Peru – Updated

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Lloyd Axworthy returned to Peru for the second time since he was appointed to head up the OAS mission to observe the presidential and congressional elections in April. Between Thursday and Saturday, Axworthy held meetings with leaders of major political parties and groups in civil society. The best newpaper report on Axworthy’s visit was printed in La Republica. According to La Republica, Axworthy heard many reports from candidates and individuals in civil society that there is favoritism on behalf of Lourdes Flores Nano, candidate for National Unity. One of the people Axworthy met was Ollanta Humala. Ollanta Humala has said it is strange how the media gives more coverage to other candidates and said nothing about “gigantic” meetings he held in the north and western regions last week. Humala may be right–according to Transparencia, Humala is getting a smaller share of the publicity than one might expect given his standing in the polls.
It is significant that Axworthy met with Cesar Hildebrandt before leaving Lima. Hildebrandt said that Peruvian television had concentrated its attention on questioning Humala without giving him a chance to outline his program for government. He noted that he was forced out of his program on television after airing an interview with Humala. In his next visit, Axworthy may want to meet with the media to express the concerns of some of the candidates.
In what follows, we provide the two main newspaper articles that covered Axworthy’s visit to Lima, and then a number of stories from the following day (January 27) in which people react. Augusto Alvarez Rodrich suggests that the candidates who are complaining that the media is responsible for their standing in the polls should examine the lack of effectiveness of their own campaigns. Ángel Páez, on the other hand, says woe to any TV station, newspaper, magazine or radio that offers negative coverage of Loudes Flores. In effect, powerful economic interests want her to win and money talks when it comes to shaping media coverage.

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Written by Michael Ha

February 27th, 2006 at 9:44 pm

Javier Diez Canseco: Candidates Avoiding Debate on FTA

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Maxwell A. Cameron
February 22, 2006

In a meeting with the foreign press, Javier Diez Canseco, candidate of the Socialist Party, outlined his initiative to submit the recently negotiated Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States to a referendum. Diez Canseco is working with a network of civil society organizations, unions, and parliamentary leaders to prevent the FTA from being approved in the current legislature, which will reopen in March.

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Written by Michael Ha

February 22nd, 2006 at 9:29 am

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