Ollanta Humala proposed May 21 as the date for a debate with Garcia while speaking on the television program Cuarto Poder. Garcia called in to accept.
Author: Michael Ha
Mariano Grondona (periodista, sociólogo y ensayista argentino) da una vision pesismista del futuro de Peru, Bolivia y Argentina. Segun el autor, la izquierda de estos paises, a diferencia de las de Brasil, Chile y Uruguay, no han aprendido las lecciones del pasado. Segun Grondona “Los peruanos deberán escoger hoy, por lo visto, entre un viejo y un nuevo demagogo.”
Source: La República, 15 de mayo del 2006
Según los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo, los ciudadanos a nivel nacional que no votaron ni por Alan García (APRA) ni por Ollanta Humala (UPP) en la primera vuelta están decidiendo por cuál de estas dos opciones se inclinarán el 4 de junio.
Tras la acusación que hizo Javier Bedoya de Vivanco, Presidente del Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC), en el sentido de que el APRA hizo fraude electoral para pasar a la segunda vuelta ha surgido un nuevo temor en UPP: el anforazo. A Alan García le pareció lamentable que Unidad Nacional no haya sabido asumir la derrota por sus propios errores.
Tras las dos derrotas consecutivas que sufrió Lourdes Flores en los procesos electorales del 2001 y el 2006, la congresista de Unidad Nacional (UN), Fabiola Morales, le pidió “dar un paso al costado” en la conducción de esa alianza política y ceder su lugar al alcalde de Lima, Luis Castañeda Lossio, quien reúne las mejores condiciones para ello, en caso la alianza permanezca. Xavier Barrón admitió esta posibilidad, aunque el nombre de Rafael Rey es otro de los nombres que se estudia como posible reemplazo.
Newspaper Pagina 12 (from Argentina) reports on the increasing support for Alan Garcia because of the ‘fear factor’ against Humala. It is a fear constantly fueled by the media, insisting in portraying Ollanta Humala as an ‘authoritarian risk.’ According to political analysts, Humala is not being skillful in presenting himself as a secure choice. His recent visit to Evo Morales and Chavez public support for him (two political figures with low acceptance levels in Peru), have asserted in the electorate the image that Humala is a risky choice.
Source: El Comercio, 14 de mayo del 2006
Source: El Comercio, 14 de mayo del 2006
APOYO Opinion Data: La ventaja no es suficiente (15-05-2006)
Aunque los resultados de la encuesta de esta semana son muy similares a los de la semana anterior, la ventaja que lleva Alan García sobre Ollanta Humala no es lo suficientemente amplia como para considerarlo un seguro ganador. Con respecto al total del electorado, sólo nueve puntos porcentuales separan a García (43%) de Humala (34%), una cifra mucho menor al 23% que declara que piensa votar en blanco o que no precisa su opinión. Encuesta completa: Download file
Source: El Comercio, 14 de mayo del 2006
Source: El Comercio, 14 de mayo del 2006
Sourfce: La República, 14 de mayo del 2006
En una entrevista radial, Javier Bedoya de Vivanco, presidente del PPC, mencionó la palabra “fraude”, responsabilizando al APRA, la ONPE y la Cancillería. Luis Gonzales Posada y Pilar Nores rechazaron la denuncia a nombre del partido de la estrella y le piden pruebas
According to Alfredo Torres of APOYO, if Garcia is elected it will be the first time in half a century that a leader not preferred by the south is elected.
An interesting op-ed by Hugo Neira offers Hugo Blanco’s view of Ollanta Humala.
The National Election Board blames the National Office for Electoral Processes for the large number of disputed voting returns in the general election of April 9, pointing to the poor training of the members of voting booths. For its part, the ONPE, which has begun to send election material abroad, blames the problem on the difficulty that members of voting booths had in submitting returns given the complexity of the ballot–with three elections being held simultaneously–and the large number of parties.
Javier Bedoya has denounced the orchestration of fraud by the APRA against the candidate of UN, Lourdes Flores. According to Bedoya, APRA used its scrutineers in Cajamarca, Lambayeque and Trujillo to steal votes from Flores. A spokesperson for APRA said there is no proof to support these claims and that it is an attack on ONPE and the JNE. Moreover, UN should have had scrutineers at all the polling booths.
Alan Garcia has proposed a presidential debate on May 17, but the negotiators for UPP and APRA had previously agreed to meet on May 16 to set the date for a debate.
The National Election Board has issued a call for candidates to refrain from insults and low blows.
Once again, we are in debt to Rici for the latest seat count.
Download file
Sondeo de opinion publica de IMA Estudios de Marketing. Ámbito Geográfico: Lima/Callao. Tamaño de la Muestra: 700 Casos. Download file
This poll covers only Lima and has a small sample size. Nevertheless, Lima is the main battleground for this second round election and it is important to take the pulse of opinion in the capital city. What this poll suggests, in summary, is that most voters in Lima are unhappy with their choice, but are leaning toward Alan Garcia rather than Ollanta Humala. Whereas Garcia has 50 percent support in Lima, Humala has only 20 percent. There are a number of findings in this poll that suggest reasons for the tendency to support Garcia. One is the fact that 51 percent of the voters disapprove of Evo Morales’ nationalization of oil and gas in Bolivia, and 57 percent support the recall of the Peruvian ambassador to Venezuela. Chavez is regarded as a leader who governs in an authoritarian manner by 84 percent of the respondents. Taken together, it would appear that one reason for the low level of support for Humala in Lima might be that voters in the capital city do not like the way Humala has aligned himself with the governments of Venezuela and Bolivia.
May 12: Hemos añadido la cobertura de medios de prensa escrita.
Fernando Sánchez Albavera is a progressive economist, currently at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
One of the great ironies of this election is that Ollanta Humala, who has created his political movement virtually from scratch over the past year, somehow managed to come up with an impressive and comprehensive platform. In fact, few things have done him as much good in this campaign as the alliance with certain key left-wing intellectuals and technocrats, including people like Gonzalo Garcia, Felix Jimenez, and Carlos Tapia. These operators have been criticized by Humala’s opponents as opportunists, but they have given his candidacy a respectability it would otherwise have lacked. Columnist Mirko Lauer, whose sympathies for Alan Garcia are rarely far from the surface, refers to “a Potemkin facade of a team” that Humala has constructed by surrounding himself with such operators, but the facade is evidently good enough to place APRA on the defensive. Imagine a debate between Gonzalo Garcia and Luis Giampietri. That is what the Humala forces were probably angling for in trying to get a debate between teams not just candidates. Now Gonzalo Garcia, who has in the past been accused of plagiarism, is claiming that APRA is stealing not only the ideas but also the exact phrases used in La Gran Transformacion. Mercedes Cabanillas accuses Gonzalo Garcia of “infantilism.”
Is there any truth to the accusation of plagiarism? The APRA website does announce a program called “Agua Para Todos” (Water for all) and there is a section in La Gran Transformacion (presented on February 22, 2006) called “Agua Para Todos”. Whether the similarities go beyond the title is impossible to say without reading the APRA plan.
“The Media Should Not Aggravate Division.”
Interview with Lloyd Axworthy, La República, 12 May 2006, p. 8.
María Elena Castillo
Photo: Yanina Patricio
Byline: “The president of the Mission of Observers of the OAS called upon all actors in the second round to respect the rules of the game. He stated that while there is no law that regulates the news media, the media should assume their responsibility and be impartial.”
Civil society organizations and political parties have complained about the lack of impartiality of the mass media in the first round. What might happen if this is repeated in the current process?
When the OAS created the dialogue round tables in 2000, a fundamental issue was that the mass media was controlled by the government, which had a negative effect on the election at that time, and which was considered seriously manipulated. Now the situation is totally different. The media are in the hands of private sector, but the same principle of respect for the candidates, regardless of their political affiliation, should be applied.
But this does not happen…
There is enough evidence to suggest that the media were not as balanced as they should be. And perhaps it would be appropriate to return to a new dialogue round table to speak about the role of the mass media. In a situation as polarized as the Peruvian case, the media should not contribute to increase the division. This cannot be changed from one day to the next, but nor should the same error be repeated, because if the media are under the power of the government, or they are overly dominated by the private sector, it is the voters who suffer.
According to a survey by Calandria people think the media, especially television, focuses more on scandals than on the platforms of the parties for government. Do you think this information should be regulated?
This phenomenon is not only in Peru. The media, above all electronic, are influenced by what they can sell. But an election is a special moment in the democratic process, and the freedom of the press, which is a fundamental right, also implies responsibilities. After the discussion of the year 2000, a consensus developed and things were reformed. It would be good review this history.
Were these accords enforced during the first round?
I am not an analyst of the mass media, but I have received complaints from different sources, both in civil society and the political parties. From my experience in Canada, of over 30 years, I know that when this type of lack of impartiality is too obvious, you cannot have a fair election. There is no law that says what can be put in the news, and there should be no such law, but one must call on the media to be responsible.
How can attacks candidate be avoided, such as the ones we saw this past April?
We have recommended improvements in security in the voting stations, as well as deterrent security so that these sorts of uprisings do not occur. We have met with the electoral authorities and I know that they are working on measures to overcome these situations.
But there are things that escape one’s hands…
The political parties themselves can avoid polarization, and their leaders have a great responsibility. First, they themselves should obey the rules, since if they use a language of accusations or begin extreme personal attacks, their supporters will obviously follow them.
Will the report that you [the Mission] issue at the end of the process include the statements of the president of Venezuela, supporting one of the candidates?
Our work does not take positions on disputes between countries with respect to the Free Trade Agreement or other themes, but if these statements might influence in a clear way the vote by the Peruvian people this would go against the democratic charter of the OAS. What happened, happened, but we will be vigilant and will be asking that the rules be respected in the next weeks of the campaign.
But will you pronounced on the matter if someone, here or outside, does not obey?
Yes. The right of the Peruvian people to choose their government is sacred. To put it in personal terms, if the president of the United States made statements about who should be elected (in my country, Canada), I as a Canadian, would feel that the president had infringed on my rights.
Box: “Every election should be better than the last.”
What are political campaigns like in Canada? Are there as many complaints about dirty wars, as here?
Yes, sometimes. In 1988 I was a member of parliament for an opposition party and the FTA with the US was being negotiated. We opposed this because we felt it was a bad deal for us. As a result, 8 days before the election, in which we were ahead, we were confronted by a huge amount of information with very personal attacks. If a camera could have captured this I would show the scars I have from this period. So when I speak of the behavior of the media, I know what I am talking about from personal experience. In that case we lost the election but we won the next one.
So there is not much difference with us then?
We learned from the election and now have stronger rules. In Canadian politics there are strong restrictions with respect to contributions by private firms and unions, only natural persons can give money, but with limits very clearly established; what is more there is free access to the electronic media and a commission of telecommunications that monitors the elections to verify if there is a fair assignment of time for all the candidates. Because one learns from ones errors; Peru is passing through the same, it is step by step, and every election should be better than the one before.
In your country are there debates?
Many. In the last election where were three debates between the leaders. In general, all have been very healthy, although some complete with hockey games, which have their finals in April or May. For this reasons we never have elections in those months.
Translation: M.A. Cameron
Expreso reports that Humala will consider withdrawing from the race due to the gap between him and Garcia in the polls. Is this a “psycho-social operation”?
Según una nota publicada el día de hoy en el diario Expreso, Ollanta Humala estaría meditando su retiro de la segunda vuelta en las elecciones presidenciales del 4 de junio debido a la amplia diferencia que le lleva Alan García en las últimas encuestas.
In the face of evidence that the case of Locumba in 2000 was more of a farce than a Quixotic uprising, there has been some discussion of whether the amnesty subsequently granted to Ollanta Humala might be revoked so that the case might be further investigated by the judiciary. Once again, this case exposes the nefarious effects of legislative interference in the judiciary. The congress should never grant amnesties lightly, and the idea that it might revoke an amnesty once given underscores the reason why: members of congress make bad judges.
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64,644 voting returns challenged
According to the National Election Board, inadequate training of members of voting booths has resulted in an extraordinary number of voting returns being disputed. There are 88,481 voting stations across the country, and as many as 64,644 voting returns challenged or subject to review due to material errors. In 2001, only 15 percent of the returns were disputed.
May 12th: From Vienna, President Alejandro Toledo has called on US government to review the Humala case and to rectify a mistake, if that is the case.
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The Presidential Debate
The representatives of APRA and UPP are engaged in a complex negotiation over the conditions under which their leaders will enter a presidential debate. APRA seemed, until recently, to be successfully casting Ollanta Humala as avoiding the debate. Humala was asking for Garcia to congratulate him on winning the first round of the election, and Garcia refused saying Humala was trying to avoid debate. Now, APRA is saying it will not participate in a debate unless Humala’s party ceases it’s so-called “dirty war” against APRA. APRA claims that Humala’s supporters are undertaking “psychological operations” against Garcia and painting walls with anti-APRA insults. Humala says reminding voters how badly APRA governed in the 1980s is not a “dirty war,” and if Garcia will not debate, he will be happy to debate with President Alejandro Toledo or the US ambassador, Garcia’s “godfathers.”
Five factors could make a debate important if not decisive in this election.
First, neither candidate has the race locked up.
Second, there are still a lot of undecided voters.
Third, voters tempted to cast blank ballots could be decisive.
Fourth, some of the most undecided voters—like the middle sectors in Lima–are probably those most likely to watch the debate closely.
Fifth, the debate would pit a brilliant debater who has high negative ratings against a less experienced debater who, as the candidate behind in the polls, has the most to gain. Thus, even a failure by Humala to land a KO would benefit his position.
Source: La Primera, 11 de mayo del 2006
Datum International Estudio de opinion electoral. Universo: 1,127 entrevistas en zonas urbanas y rurales. Margen de error: +/-3% y representando el 79.9% del electorado. Download file
Source: La Republica, 10 de mayo del 2006
Analistas advierten que las promesas de los dos candidatos de incrementar el rol del Estado perjudicara al Peru. Los planes de ambos candidatos estan provocando una gran preocupacion entre actuales y potenciales inversores en el Peru. Esta preocupacion se ve confirmada por la decision de Morales el pasado 1 de mayo de nacionalizar los hidrocarburos y la reciente visita de Ollanta Humala al presidente boliviano en Copacabana. Mas aun, la aceptacion por parte de Venezuela, Argentina y Brazil de la decision de Morales no ha ayudado a calmar los animos de los inversionistas.
Andrés Oppenheimer comments on the apparent trend to the left in Latin America. In contrast to what has been said by some analysts, Oppenheimer believes that, more than a leftist tsunami, Latin America is being divided by a struggle among the left itself.
Bolivia’s nationalization of the natural gas industry has added some tension to its relations to Brazil and Argentina (both with center left governments). Argentina’s has taken Uruguay’s social democratic government to The Hague in a row about the paper mills being constructed in the banks of the river Uruguay. Chile’s socialist government has consistently increased Chile’s arsenal, possibly straining future relations with whoever wins Peru’s elections.
For Oppenheimer this is just the beginning. He concludes that next time we hear about a leftist wave in Latin America, we should take the comment “with tweezers.”
Asked: “¿No fue soberbia al decir que la elección le fue ganada en la mesa pero no en las urnas?”
Barba Caballero replies: “No fue una posición correcta por la sencilla razón de que, si se sumaban todas las actas impugnadas, igual perdía. Por otro lado, si fuese cierto (lo que dijo), peor para ella, porque significa que montó una pésima organización electoral que no fue capaz de defender los votos de Unidad Nacional.”
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ONPE’s vote count
El Comercio has a special with coverage on political parties’ campaign fundraising. It reports that Peru Posible ($1.8M) was the biggest spender during the first round campaign, followed by Alianza por el progreso ($1.2M), Unidad Nacional ($1.2M) and APRA ($0.99M). Currently there are no penalties for fundraising irregularities. ONPE is requesting the capacity to impose sanctions.
Percy Medina, Transparencia, supports moral sanctions against political parties not presenting financial campaign information on time. Mauricio Mulder, APRA, has demanded that ONPE verify the sources of financial funding and amounts for Union por el Peru to be sure the Venezuelan government is not providing financial support for Humala’s campaign.
The recent statements by OAS Electoral Observation Mission chief Lloyd Axworthy were reported by most of the printed press today. El Comercio called the message clear and well directed. It said Axworthy was cautious when asked about Hugo Chavez, but mentioned article 3 of the Inter-American Democratic Charter which calls for non-intervention among members states of the OAS. This is an error, it is the OAS Charter not the Democratic Charter that concerns non-intervention.
Peru.21 emphasized that Axworthy not only rejected the gross interference of Chavez, but also implied criticism of the recent commentaries made by Alejandro Toledo. Toledo denied that he has interfered in the election with the following non-sequitur: “I am respectful because I am the one who calls the election.”
El Peruano quotes ambassador Gonzalo Fernandez Puyo, President of the Peruvian society for International Law, who says that the declaration of the mission chief follows international law. Intervention means more than territorial incursion. No foreign leader should take sides until the people have decided. “After the results are in, they can applaud all they want for whoever they want,” he said.
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OAS Mission on the Second Round
The OAS Electoral Observation Mission has issued a press release on the second round of the election.
Foto: Ricardo Choy-Kifox. Andina Agencia Peruana de Noticias.
According to El Comercio, in its web edition, the OAS Mission chief Lloyd Axworthy called on foreign governments to respect the sovereignty of the Peruvian people so that they can elect the next president without undue influence. He said it was not the task of the mission to participate directly in the differences of opinion among government–above all in diplomatic affairs. Furthermore, the mission is not in a position to impose sanctions on the Chavez government.
“But yes we will view seriously when there are declarations by any government that might be seen as an effort to influence the vote,” said Axworthy. He made an invocation for governments to operate on the basis of mutual respect and allow the Peruvian people to choose their next government according to their own interests. This principle applies in any democratic system and includes not just foreign actors but also candidates, officials, polling companies, and other groups, he said, and noted that it is the basis of credibility and trust in the election outcome. The OAS has mechanisms for dealing with persistent interference, above all through the Permanent Council.
According to CPN Radio, Axworthy mentioned that the mission is working to determine whether there was any type of irregularity with respect to the delay in the vote scrutiny or vote counting in the April 9 election. He expressed his commitment to guaranteeing that Peru will undertake its electoral process in a manner that is “free and fair and transparent, without interference, whether from inside or outside the country.” Axworthy also expressed his support for a debate between the candidates, so that votes might know their respective platforms. He met separately with Carlos Torres Caro and Jorge Del Castill but would not specify the topics of discussion.
The press conference was covered by AP, and picked up by El Universal in Mexico.
Según la última encuesta nacional de CPI, Alan García, candidato del APRA, superaría por 22 puntos a Ollanta Humala (UPP) en la segunda vuelta electoral, indicando una tendencia al aumento. Destaca el hecho de que el 54.8% de electores que votaron por Lourdes Flores en primera vuelta lo harían por García, y sólo un 9.2% apoyarían a Humala.
Resultados: Download file
Cuadros: Download file
Source: El Comercio, 09 de mayo del 2006
Source: El Comercio, 09 de mayo del 2006