By Sugar Munkhtsooj
The Mongolian parliamentary elections of 2024, the first since constitutional amendments increased the number of parliamentarians from 76 to 126, concluded in June with results that largely aligned with predictions from pundits and pollsters. As expected, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) secured victory, while several smaller parties made their way into parliament. However, it was the post-election developments that caught many observers by surprise.
A Surprising Move
Mr. L. Oyun-Erdene, leader of the MPP, which commanded a simple majority of 68 parliamentarians, made an unexpected gesture by inviting the leaders of the HUN Party and the Democratic Party of Mongolia (DP) to join what he termed a “Courage for Rapid Development” Government. This arrangement was not a formal coalition, which would have been governed by specific rules and regulations. Instead, it was framed as an invitation to opposition parties “to tackle the pressing issues facing Mongolia together.”
For Oyun-Erdene, this move makes tactical sense given the political environment. Appointed by his predecessor, Mr. U. Khurelsukh upon his ascendancy to Presidency, Oyun-Erdene spent the last three years navigating a tough post-COVID economy while simultaneously fighting to retain his position. His primary goal was to survive in office until the election, proving to skeptics within his party that he could deliver electoral success.
With victory secured, the decision to invite the two parties serves to strengthen the stability of his government and, by extension, his own position. Commanding just 68 seats, Oyun-Erdene was vulnerable to potential challenges from disgruntled factions within his own party, who could have easily sided with the opposition to topple the government by simple majority of 64 parliamentarians. By bringing opposition parties into the fold, he has effectively neutralized this threat. On a broader scale, this move allows him to present a unified front when dealing with neighboring countries on major projects, such as the long-discussed Tavan Tolgoi power plant, uranium deals with France, and railway infrastructure improvements with China and Russia.
The Democratic Party’s Calculations
For Mr. L. Gantumur, leader of the Democratic Party, the decision to join the government may have been driven by a different set of considerations. The DP’s choice to participate in the government faced much stronger criticism compared to that of the HUN Party, which many in the DP had long considered an ally of the ruling MPP.
Critiques came from various quarters, raising valid concerns. Even Mr. N. Enkhbayar, the third president of Mongolia and a long-time leader of the MPP, publicly disapproved of this arrangement, arguing that right-wing and left-wing parties cannot coexist effectively in one government. Voices within the DP feared a loss of the party’s distinct identity and its prominent position as one of Mongolia’s two major parties. Others expressed concern about the erosion of checks and balances that a healthy opposition provides.
Gantumur, elected as Party Leader in 2023 after a bitter leadership dispute that nearly tore the DP apart, may have seen strategic necessity in joining the government to save the party from obscurity. Several factors likely influenced this decision:
Party Rebuilding:
Joining the government allows Mr. Gantumur to break the vicious cycle of self-destruction that has plagued the Democratic Party (DP) and begin the process of rebuilding it into a modern organization. The discipline and structure required to operate within the government are expected to positively impact the party’s internal processes as well.
Maintaining party morale in opposition is challenging in any context, but particularly so in Mongolia. Unlike in Commonwealth countries, Mongolia lacks a state-provided systematic environment and ecosystem for opposition parties to operate effectively. Once out of power, a party must rely on its own resources to remain politically relevant until the next election. Like any thriving organization, a political party needs funds and new members to stay viable.
This challenge became increasingly difficult for the DP over the past four years due to a bitter leadership dispute at its headquarters. The internal strife caused many talented professionals to leave the party, with some abandoning politics altogether. Notable departures include Mr. B. Dulguun, who joined Mr. Oyun-Erdene’s team to become director of a government think tank, and Mr. S. Sanaser, who ran on a HUN party ticket in an Ulaanbaatar district. Both Harvard-trained economists were once considered the future of the party.
This exodus of talent, coupled with the increased dominance of extreme voices from the party’s fringes, has made it difficult for the DP to rebrand itself as a viable political force capable of governing. Not to mention that the weakening of Mongolia’s second-largest party poses a risk to the country’s political balance, as it becomes more susceptible to extreme political ideologies.
Rebuilding Cadre:
On a more practical level, joining the government allows the DP to position the next generation of its leaders to gain valuable governing experience. All political parties need to demonstrate their competence and ability to govern effectively. Being away from national government for the past eight years has left the party with a shortage of experienced professionals who meet the legal criteria for top government positions.
Indeed, the DP is already struggling to fill its allotted positions in the new government, often relying on individuals with experience from former DP administrations. Gantumur’s move can be seen as an attempt to bring a cadre of young DP members into mid-level government positions, providing them with crucial experience in governance and policy-making.
By participating in governance, even as a junior partner, allows DP to work towards rebuilding its reputation, attracting new talent, and preparing for future electoral contests with a stronger, more experienced team.
Risks and Opportunities
One major risk of this cooperation with the ruling party is the potential loss of identity and voter base, a common fate for junior partners in coalition governments. Some worry that the DP might face significant losses in the crucial local elections scheduled for October 11, 2024.
The upcoming local elections are particularly crucial, given the enhanced powers granted to local administrations by the 2020 legal changes. Moreover, they also serve as important political springboards for those eyeing national politics: in the 2024 elections, five district governors ascended to the national parliament.
Paradoxically, the DP’s decentralized structure may prove advantageous. Unlike the MPP’s rigid hierarchy, the DP’s factional nature allows local branches to maintain distinct identities in rural Mongolia. This grassroots strength was evident in 2020 when the party secured 10 aimag governorships despite heavy national losses.
At the parliamentary level, the DP isn’t entirely abandoning its watchdog role. A cadre of newly elected young MPs has voiced strong responses to recent national scandals—including the tragic death of a juvenile in custody and the controversial imprisonment of a prominent journalist—signaling a commitment to accountability that transcends political alliances.
Looking Ahead
The question now looming over Mongolia is whether this “cooperation government” will truly address the nation’s pressing issues or simply entrench a system rife with corruption. It remains to be seen how long this experiment in political cooperation will survive. However, in an age of increasing polarization, the Mongolian case of political unity stands out as a pertinent example.
About Sugar Munkhtsooj
Mr. Sugar Munkhtsooj is a management consultant and former Secretary for International Relations of the Democratic Party of Mongolia.
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