Combining the numbers from the General Election Commission in two previous posts (FPTP and PR), we would arrive at the following seat distribution (relying on the earlier DP estimates of first-past-the-post races where the GEC didn’t want to call these races yet):
Proportional representation:
- DP 10 seats
- MPP 9
- MPRP 7
- CWGP 2
First-past-the-post:
- DP 22 seats
- MPP 19
- MPRP 4
- Independent 3
Yielding a total of:
- DP 32 seats
- MPP 28
- MPRP 11
- Independents 3
- CWGP 2
Numerically possible coalitions to yield a 39 seat majority:
- DP + MPP = 60 seats
- DP + MPRP = 43 seats
- MPP + MPRP = 39 seats [thanks to a sharp-eyed reader for pointing this out to me]
Independents and CWGP could be added to the above coalitions, of course.
Not that these numbers are built not on the GEC numbers, but on the GEC numbers + results given by the DP, though only for the races that the GEC didn’t call. Shifts of all numbers are thus still quite possible.
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As I understand it, the Mongolian Constitution does not provide for a coalition government that does not include the party winning the most seats. Can anyone confirm?
That does NOT seem to be the case. I.e., the party with the most votes does not have to be involved in a governing coalition. This was confirmed to me by an MP, though I didn’t look it up in the constitution myself.
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