In its 12h press conference, the GEC announced a preliminary breakdown for the party vote that will determine the share of proportional representation in 28 seats.
The following parties cleared the 5% minimum vote share that is necessary to be included in the proportional representation distribution of seats:
- Democratic Party – 399,194 – 35,32%
- Mongolian People’s Party – 353839 – 31,31%
- Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (“Justice” coalition with Mongolian National Democratic Party) – 252077 – 22,31%
- Civil Green Will Party – 62310 – 5,51%
The exact distribution of seats is not only still dependent on final vote reports coming in, but also on a recalculation of the exact percentages of the total number of votes that will be used to determine the seats distributed according to proportional representation (see below for an excerpt from the relevant law).
This gives us adjusted percentages that include the votes for parties under 5% redistributed to the four parties over 5%:
- DP 37.28%
- MPP 32.93%
- MPRP 23.46%
- CWGP 5.79%
We can then use these percentages to distribute the 28 seats reserved for the party lists.
- DP 10 seats (10.44)
- MPP 9 (9.22)
- MPRP 7 (6.57)
- CWGP 2 (1.62)
Please note that this is, once again, a home-made calculation and while I have tried to apply the specification offered in the election law, I do not have total confidence in this calculation. For example, you will note that the adjusted percentages above don’t add up to 100%. I suspect that this may be because further parties received some votes and perhaps invalid ballots were also included in some of the calculation, but not other parts. If you have any insights on this, please do offer your comment.
Art 49 of the election law (available from Asian Network for Free Elections) states:
Article 49. Sum-up of outcomes of election, allocation of seats, and reporting
49.1. The General Election Commission shall sum up the outcomes of the election delivered by district committees pursuant to Article 48 hereof nationwide and allocate seats for parties and coalitions in the following manner.
49.1.1. To calculate the total number of all votes obtained by each party and coalition and make a slate (hereinafter referred to as “slate “B””) by arranging parties and coalitions that have obtained at least five percent of all votes obtained by all parties and coalitions in order of percentages of votes they have obtained;
49.1.2. To distribute percentage of all votes obtained by parties and coalitions that have failed to pass the five-percent threshold set forth in Article 49.1.1 hereof proportionally and add them to percentage of votes obtained by each party and coalition included in slate “B;”
49.1.3. To calculate a percentage per seat by dividing the sum of percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions and included in slate “B” set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by 28; and
49.1.4. To distribute 28 seats of Members of Parliament (State Great Hural) proportionally based on the principle of big remainder by dividing percentages of votes of each party and coalition included in slate “B” and set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by the percentage per seat set forth in Article 49.1.3 hereof.
Notes: “Proportional distribution according to the principle of bid remainder” means completion of distribution of all seats through distribution of seats that equal whole parts in the first place after calculation of the number of seats in fractions allocated for percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions, and distribution of additional seats for parties and coalitions one by one starting from those that have big remainders or fractional parts in the event of undistributed seats.