Observations during Presidential Polling

By Julian Dierkes

From the perspective of a repeat election observer (this was my fifth national election for which I served as an international observer), the reporting about the election is always somewhat challenging.

On the one hand, I gain so many impressions from election observation that I am keen to share as regular readers of this blog would guess. On the other hand, I feel a real obligation not to draw any conclusions from my personal observations, as they are just that, one person’s observation.

The verdict that the press typically looks for is “free and open” or some variation thereof. In the Mongolian context, I am not sure that that stamp of approval is of any interest to individual voters or even to NGOs, but the international press certainly feeds this label straight into reporting as it provides a nice summary that does not require further fact-checking as a quasi-official statement.

I cannot make such a statement myself, particularly in an election where I was not part of a larger organized election observation mission like the OSCE’s. For the 2017 presidential election, please see the OSCE preliminary report for such a more systematic assessment.

But, I do have a perspective to offer beyond my observations on June 26, namely that this has been my fifth election that I have observed, so I have seen some patters and can compare this year’s election to previous iterations.

Impressions

For a series of photos from the 2017 presidential election, see the Neue Zürcher Zeitung’s Matthias Müller’s photos.

On the whole, I did not see any great differences between the 2013 presidential election and this year’s iteration. As has been noted by all election observation reports, I have always been impressed by a) the care that all the people involved in polling stations take, and b) the technology that is deployed in an effort at electoral transparency and security. Both of those factors were consistent across different polling stations this year as they have been in previous years.

Just for context I should note that for this election I travelled in a long circle from Ulaanbaatar to Zun Mod to Nalaikh and back to Ulaanbaatar. In all these locations, I visited a mix of neighbourhoods from very urban to very rural. In the past as well, I have been in Ulaanbaatar as well as in various aimags across the country, from polling stations that are a stone’s throw (well a powerful throw anyway) away from government house to a polling ger set up especially for an election to comply with the no travel beyond 70km required stipulation, in this case in rural Zavkhan where in the days before the voting machines, the hand-counted results had to be transmitted by riding onto a large hill that had cell phone reception to reach the aimag electoral commission in Uliastay.

This week, I visited 16 polling stations, staying for as long as 30min at some, but as little as 10min at others. Over the five years I would say that I’ve visited a total of 100 polling stations.

This week again, the polling stations operated very smoothly. When challenges arose (lines formed, we saw one malfunctioning voting machine) the electoral commission dealt with these challenges calmly, competently and effectively.

The Layout of Polling Stations

While the physical set-up varies across polling stations, they all diligently provide a private space for voters to fill out their ballot. Tables where voters will out the ballot are deliberately angled away from the view of election officials and observers. When there was no chair in the observers’ corner once and I stood, leaning against the wall, I was quickly asked to sit down on a shared chair, as my height might have allowed me to look onto the desks where voters were filling out their ballots.

At this election for the first time (note that I was in Ulaanbaatar last year for the parliamentary election campaign, but did not stay for election day and did not serve as an observer) I saw seating plans posted at the ballot stations as part of the extensive information about the voting process that is displayed at the stations. These small architectural drawings specify locations of the registration desk, the ballot dispersal station, the voting booths, the voting machines, and the drop-the-folder-and-get-ink-mark station. Actual physical layouts followed these plans very closely. I never saw a voter even glance at the information provided, but it is another piece of evidence of the care that is taken with planning and execution of the election

Another innovation this year were the arrows that pointed voters along the chain of stations as they progressed through the polling station. In most stations, voters are guided through the sequence in a clockwise direction, following general Mongolian practice around ovoos, etc. The arrows did not seem to be very effective as few voters noticed them.

Depending of the number of voters in a riding, there are one, two, or three machines to collect the ballots.

Technology

The technology that is deployed at polling stations continues to be impressive.

Filming inside of polling station for broadcast to outside

At all polling stations, there is a large TV placed outside of the actual voting place that shows a video image of the inside. Any interested voter individual could observe the entire proceedings all day long should they care to.

Voter demographics

As voters are checked in via their fingerprint, their photo appears on a large screen in the polling station, allowing observers (mostly party observers) to confirm their identity.

The same screen also offers tabulations of voting.

This includes the same of female/male voters, a breakdown of voters by age cohorts, a breakdown of votes recorded by those collect through mobile voting, those added to a local registration, and those voting as registered.

The turnout is also presented as a number as well as a bar graph.

Obviously, an empirical social scientist’s dream.

Given the data that is produced here for the information of local citizens, I completely agree with the preliminary report of the observation missions, that “transparency was somewhat limited by the GEC releasing only aggregated results”.

If citizens and perhaps especially the local citizens and party observers could access the polling-station-by-polling station information, they would be able to compare these to their own observations further increasing trust in the election procedures. Visiting social scientists would also be thrilled. For example, during my day of observation, I noticed that in virtually all polling stations female voters outnumbered male voters, generally in a ration of about 58:42. Was this a local/regional phenomenon? What does it mean?

Fingerprinting, Laptops, Machinery

There are usually at least four laptops around the polling stations. Two operated by election officials from the citizens’ registry (sorry, forget the exact name of the agency) that are connected to the fingerprint-reader.

We saw a few incidences of the fingerprint-reader having a hard time with someone’s fingerprint, perhaps because of wrinkles, very darkly tanned skin, or skin disease. In those cases, voters were allowed to vote by being entered by their national id number.

Challenges

I have seen some challenges in the voting process, a number of them recurring. I list these here not to criticize the procedures as they were not impacted severely by these challenges, but perhaps as suggestions.

Folder

The folder that voters use to carry the ballot to the voting machine does not work well. It is simple enough, i.e. an open folder of almost equal size to the ballot. It was folder over at the top to prevent voters from trying to feed the folder into the voting machine with the ballot. We actually observed this twice, i.e. voters trying to feed the folder into the voting machine, so the fold seems to fulfill an important role. Yet, the folder system is awkward.

Voting Machine

In its design, the slot where the ballot is fed in resembles a fax machine. Those readers of a younger generation are encouraged to search for “facsimile machine” online and I trust that some virtual museum will offer a display. The design is easy enough, i.e. a slot that the ballot is fed into, just like we used to feed sheets of paper into a fax machine. But the problems seems to be that the vast majority of voters have never used a fax machine. Perhaps this design could be improved upon.

Also (as always happened with fax machines, and still happens with copy machines) it is very unclear how to insert the ballot, upside down, right side up? It turns out that it does not matter, but voters do not realize that and election commission members are often asked to help. That seems to be a somewhat systemic weakness, though it also speaks to the humanity and pragmatism of the election commissions.

The greatest menace to the voting machine are toddlers and babies. Mongolia being a very child-friendly society in public, obviously sees many parents of young children brining their kids along to vote. Well, kids like to push buttons and pull on things. The voting machines do not always take well to these expressions of affection and some officials get quite nervous when children are circling the voting machine.

Conclusion

I have nothing to say about the election in general, having only seen a very specific subsection of polling stations. However, the election operated smoothly at these stations (as it had at the very many stations I have visited previously since 2008), and the operations inside the ballot station do not give rise to any suspicions of fraud at all. Instead, in technical terms, it seems to me that the enormous effort put unto planning and execution of the election pays of handsomely in terns of the organizational success that it represents.

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Gobi Success for Ganbaatar

By Julian Dierkes

The electoral map from Monday’s results holds a number of surprises. One of the more puzzling ones is Ganbaatar’s strong results across the Gobi region.

Umnugovi

For example, in Umnugovi fully 43% of voters supported Ganbaatar on turnout that was in line with the national rate.

Recall that Umnugovi is Mongolia’s leading mining aimag with the large projects at Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi. But Ganbaatar’s record shows him at least skeptical about governance arrangements for these provinces. While there may be local concerns about the impact of mining, there are also numerous jobs in this region that depend on mining and since the pre-election nation-wide surveys suggested that employment was one of the concerns foremost on Mongolians’ minds, it seems surprising to see this high rate of support.

When we saw Ganbaatar campaign in Dalanzadgad, the event did not suggest a surge of support in the province only days before the election. While Ganbaatar turned his mining rhetoric down somewhat at the event, he still spoke about the questions he wants to raise about large mining projects.

Any visit to Dalanzadgad will also show a town that might not quite be a boomtown, but that is certainly bustling, with more active markets and more modern buildings and cars than one might expect in a relatively small aimag capital of a population of less than 20,000. Of course, the total population of Umnugovi is less than 70,000 and the aimag only contributed a total of 27,000 votes, so this is a bit of a Pyrrhic victory for Ganbaatar.

Across the Region

And it wasn’t just Umnugovi. In Dundgovi, Ganbaatar received over 46% of the vote! In Dorngovi the three candidates split the vote more or less evenly. In Govi-Altai, Ganbaatar was strong in second place behind Enkbold. It was only in Bayankhongor where Battulga seemingly atoned for his 2016 parliamentary defeat with a very strong showing (60%) that Ganbaatar failed to make any inroads (10.5%).

I have yet to come across an explanation of this strength across the southern region of Mongolia. Could it be related to the lower population density somehow? More reliance on media rather than word-of-mouth or discussions with neighbours?

Posted in Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | 4 Comments

Presidential Elections: 3 Things Happened

By Julian Dierkes

The results of the June 26 presidential election has come as a big surprise. I did not expect Battulga to win and certainly did not expect Enkhbold to struggle to finish 2nd.

Lots of questions to think about in coming days. But here is an attempt at a very first, overarching look at what has happened and how to understand it by describing the result around 3 themes:

  1. Battulga won
  2. Mongolians spoke their mind
  3. Campaigns matter

Note that these are almost purely domestic issues, foreign policy and even relations with neighbours did not play a big role in the outcome, I think, despite some of the patriotic symbolism.

Battulga Won

Some of the football podcasts I listen to start with “chronicler’s diary”, i.e. the basic facts of the previous match.

While the closeness in the number of votes between Enkhbold and Ganbaatar and how that has come about is a fascinating topic, the most fundamental result of the election is that Kh Battulga won this election. He did not win it outright, i.e. not with 50%+, but he received around 8% more of the votes than either Enkbold or Ganbaatar.

Battulga essentially won on the back of a sweep of the large (in population terms) Ulaanbaatar districts. He achieved his best result in the city in Bayangol district where he received 50.6% of votes. Enkhbold’s less-than-glorious history as Ulaanbaatar mayor particularly related to land privatizations probably played a role in this sweep of the city districts, though the city has traditionally been a DP stronghold.

Mongolians Speak their Mind

Like last year, Mongolians spoke their mind and gave nearly a third of their votes to a candidate that was deemed to have at best an outside chance, Ganbaatar. Since the “natural constituency” for the MPRP is only about 7 or 8%, more than 20% of voters were either convinced by Ganbaatar’s campaign (strikes me as unlikely, see my impressions) or cast their ballot in protest against dominance of politics by MAHAH.

They voted in numbers equal to the last presidential election and some of the drop from last year’s parliamentary election might be attributed to the stifling heat.

I think that democracy is alive and well.

Campaigns Matter

Even when many Mongolians seem to think that only money matters in elections, some of the result can probably be attributed to campaigning. Not the substance of the platforms (which I’ve written about), but the personal qualities of the candidates. Put simply, Battulga was a much better campaigner than many expected and Enkhbold possibly even worse than expected.

Battulga seemed at ease in large as well as small forums and gained momentum by more and more support from DP grandees over the course of the campaign. This was also visible in the TV debate between the candidates. Battulga seemed at ease and even somewhat charming.

Not Enkhbold. He almost never smiled during the campaign, does not connect with audiences (even partisan ones) and simply does not build enthusiasm for his candidacy. While some may argue that a portion of Mongolian voters appreciate the dour-apparatchik demeanour as a signal of seriousness, I think many do not.

Posted in JD Democratization, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | 5 Comments

Presidential Debate or FAQ?

By Mendee

The presidential campaign closed with a two-hour debate on June 24.  Under the agreement between the DP, MPP, and MPRP for the debate, candidates were basically provided opportunities to express their views on frequently rumoured allegations during the presidential campaign.  Although the format (e.g., opening and closing, sequencing, timing, and grouping of questions) was great, it wasn’t a presidential debate, where voters could critically judge three candidates based on their values/principles, election platforms and/or policy options.

If three debates were held as had been hoped by organizers, things might have been different.  Candidates were skillful in engaging the blame-game techniques: Enkhbold on the DP government, Battulga on the MPP government, and Ganbaatar against the MANAN/ANMAN (a coalition government of the DP and MPP).

Responding to Allegations

The debate achieved at least two objectives.

First, we have seen three candidates on one screen and compared their public speaking skills.  Second, voters learned their personal views on numerous allegations: shady city land privatization deals and public post trading (known as the 60 million case) from Enkhbold; incomplete university, Feng Shui, and the “moonies” from Ganbaatar; non-transparent privatizations of state-owned enterprises, railroad deals, ties with Singaporean businessmen from Battulga.  Even though it was nice to hear their own views on these allegations, the final say rests with the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, esp., the anti-corruption authorities.

Policy Challenges

Candidates didn’t engage in real policy issues pertinent to the presidential institution. This causes some worries. First, (maybe) advisors, associates, and staffs of the presidential candidates have little knowledge about the institution.  Second, (maybe) the public or those who sent questions were most interested in street rumours. Third, our candidates are either little prepared or less enthusiastic about the post.  In the end, one of these candidates will assume the presidency, associates will work for the president, and voters need to judge them again after four years.  We could expect that less enthusiastic presidents will do nothing whereas too ambitious/less knowledgeables president will cause more challenges.  The former would just sit there as a symbolic figure with second-round hopes and the latter would upset the power dynamics.

Instead of wasting time over unproven allegations and incomplete investigations of their past wrongdoings, voters would love to see their wisdoms on the following issue.

For one, the most important constitutional mandate for the president is “the embodiment of the unity of Mongolian people (art. 30.1).  Voters all know that political and business elites, factions, and public are deeply divided based on our values, principles, interests, and social status.  There are hidden problems with Kazakh ethnic minority. Voters can come up with many explanations for why, but candidates could tell us how they approach – the issue of national unity.  Nowadays, a simple election, single Korean businessman, religious sect (Moonies) or sinophobic rumours could easily divide the homogenous society.

Secondly, the president, as a head of state, has greater authority and responsibilities in regards with foreign policy, which requires delicate, professional management.  Yes, Ganbaatar and Battulga expressed their views on lopsided relations with China vis-a-vis Russia.  Ganbaatar highlighted economic engagements.  However, all candidates need to express their views on how Mongolia could adapt in changing geopolitical and economic arrangements at the global and regional settings.  Would we expect changes or innovations in our current conduct of foreign policies?  What are their stances on the SCO, EEU, APEC and dealings with EU?  How about the tripartite summit with two neighbours?  How about third neighbours?  And, most importantly, what would candidates do to limit the politicization and partisan instrumentalization of the foreign service?

Thirdly, the president is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and shared responsibilities with the parliament and cabinet over all other uniformed services:  intelligence, police, border troops, emergency service and marshall.  Yes, at a moment, Mongolia is at peace, but there is a constitutional mandate for the president to initiate and oversee policies to maintain the “small, capable, professional” armed service. Voters clearly see the increasingly politicization of uniformed services and questionable conduct of professionalism in a number law enforcement agencies.  Military veterans, who were part of the Soviet-style, professional service, expressed their discontents for having a wresler – Defence Minister, an emergency serviceman – Deputy Minister, and a logistical officer as the Chief of the General Staff and for politicizing the most respected professional service – the military.  Candidates didn’t say a word in this regard.

Fourthly, the most discussed issue was the judiciary. All seemingly agreed the existence of the partial judiciary and politicized conducts of the law enforcement agencies.  Ganbaatar and Battulga presented themselves and their associates as victims of the nonpartial and politicized judiciary and law enforcement authorities.  Yes, there are facts and experience.  Seemingly, we all know about it and even both candidates as well as voters may be in agreement on why this is the case.  However, none of candidates tell us how they would fix this imminent, most dangerous policy problem.   Would they just simply continue the past practices?  What do they think of past judicial reforms?  How about new criminal code?  Or, the marshall service (tahar)?  How would they execute the power of pardoning (including foreigners)?  What would they do to increase trust in judiciary and law enforcement agencies?  Could they make them merit-based, independent, and professional?

Besides these key authorities, they, if willing, could exercise more authorities (checks and balances) in dealing with the parliament and cabinet.  Just to list a few:

  • How they would use the veto power and the authority to initiate laws and changes?  Would they pressure the parliament to implement the legislation on law-passing procedures?  Are there new legislative actions (bills, amendment) in their mind?
  • What would be their initial guidance to the Prime Minister under the Constitutional article 33.2? In what areas?  Are they in support or disagreement with policies and measures of the current cabinet (Prime Minister)?  Could we expect any changes?
  • How would candidates understand the power of the National Security Council (NSC)?  How would they use the power of the Chairmanship of the NSC and organizations under the NSC?  What would be the top 5 issues to be discussed at the first series of the NSC meetings?

Finally, two important issues were not fully discussed.  First, how would each candidate deal with their respective political party once he takes the oath of leaving partisan politics behind? Would he deal with all parties equally?  Would he believe in complete disconnection from his own party bureaucracy, especially the financing?  Second, what were their thoughts on the constitutional change?  Come on, this could have been the most crucial issue for the presidential institution because this second revision would re-shape the power arrangement of the domestic politics completely.  Whether he is in favour or against the change?  If so, what would be his role and stance in this process.  These two issues very critical for the new president.  Soon, he would be entering the lame duck period asking favour from his party leaders and factions to support him for the second round.  Or, he would fighting for the institutional survival in the constitutional revision process.

Posted in Corruption, Foreign Policy, Military, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | Leave a comment

Reflection on Campaign & Outlook [Video]

By Julian Dierkes

If you’re tired of all our blog post or of my convoluted prose, here’s a 2-minute wrap-up of the presidential campaign and a little bit of an outlook.

Posted in Presidential 2017, Video | Tagged | Leave a comment

More Feeling in DP Campaign

By Julian Dierkes

After earlier reports on Ganbaatar events and today’s impressions from a final Enkbold event, I just saw the Battulga rally on Sukhbaatar Square a little while ago.

A couple of days ago, I had written an article about the nationalism we observed in the campaign with Mendee J.

That was certainly confirmed by the DP event.

The Setting

Obviously, an event on Sukhbaatar Square right in front of government house is not only grant, but carries a lot of symbolism with it.

Add to that the DP decor with lots of blue, and the large banner above the stage and the whole event already begins to look very patriotic.

The introduction for the event was less rousing than the MPP’s with some drums, but pretty much launching right away into a series of speeches.

These speeches seemed to last for quite some time. Given the hot sun, I was certainly getting a bit anxious for the main event, i.e. the candidate’s appearance.

Costumes

Among the observations that drove Mendee and me to write about nationalism was the sudden appearance of deels everywhere. After there had only been a few at the MPP event, the DP stage was filled with deel-wearing DP grandees.

Not only were they striking in colour and complete with fedoras, but a number of the prominent individuals there I had never seen in a deel before.

On our left on this photo you can see frm Foreign Minister Lu Bold (wearing a sky-blue deel), for example, and next to him frm. Chairman of the UIX Z Enkhbold in a tan deel. I had never seen either of them in a deel at a public event before.

Endorsements

And while we’re looking at that photo, note that the people on stage suggest that the DP has rallied somewhat behind Battulga as a candidate. I hadn’t really expected to see people like frm Prime Minister Amarjargal or Bold or Enkhbold to appear here, but they did and they very much looked like they are supporting Battulga.

Here’s another example of such endorsement, in this case on Twitter by Z Enkhbold

The Main Event

Given the above discussion, I was surprised to see that Battulga was not wearing the very handsome black-with-silver dots deel that he had been appearing in for much of the campaign, but instead in a smart suit.

He was welcomed with a loud cheer that seemed much more enthusiastic and also less choreographed than anything I saw at other candidates’ events.

He spoke for about 15 minutes in his typical husky voice. As a speaker, he was quite effective in projecting a personality and a connection with his audience.

He was regularly interrupted by applause and cheers by a crowd that was varied in age, though the flag-bearing campaign workers were all young, most likely university students earning a bit of extra money.

After concluding his speech (again to great cheers), he shook the hand of everyone gathered on stage and listened to a number of additional speakers.

Overall, there was a very different energy at this event than at other events I had seen. I would guess that there were roughly 2,500 people at the event, despite the strong sun, and they seemed like they were supporting their candidate enthusiastically.

Kh Battulga making his way through crowd after campaign event.

 

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MPP Campaign Feeling – Or Not

By Julian Dierkes

Thanks to an invitation organized by some long-time friends, I was able to attend M Enkhbold’s speech to party faithful that seems to have been one of the last events of the campaign for the MPP.

Always very interesting to observe crowd reactions, especially when the content of the speeches has remained relatively the same over the campaign.

Assumptions

I attended this event expecting it to be a celebration of the party leadership, an enthusiastic send-off to tonight’s debate and a rousing speech to the party faithful to rally them to the final push in the campaign.

As such, I expected over-the-top applause, pomp-and-circumstance, etc.

That assumption would be confirmed by an after-the-event tweet from the MPP.

Introductions

The opening of the event conformed to my expectations entirely. A video showing the travels of the campaign through all 21 aimags was shown. It was served with somewhat military-style music and many images of enthusiastic crowds from different parts of the country. I thought it was notable that the crowds seemed to be dominated by older voters.

Not surprisingly, all of the MPP leadership was at the invitation-only event at the MPP headquarters.

The first speaker was PM J Erdenebat, then former President N Bagabandi, then G Undarmaa. All three surely meant to warm up and fire up the crowd, or so I assumed. However, it is hard to think of the Prime Minister or the former President getting any crowd particularly excited. They both read from their scripts and did not acknowledge the crowd even during the somewhat sparse applause.

Finally, M Enkbold himself rose to speak.

The applause was not exactly deafening.

He spoke for about 15min. He read his speech and when applause got a little bit more enthusiastic (in part spurred on by party staff circulating and encouraging the party faithful to wave flags, etc.), he seemed somewhat surprised. Until the very end when the whole stage was filled with grandees and supporters, he did not crack a smile.

He is a large man, but stands back from the podium in an awkward way.

At times the audience was not entirely sure whether applause was called for and the pauses in the speech did not necessarily offer clues as to the timing of applause.

He used the policy ger as a metaphor, but, for example, did not seem to mention mining once as a topic. He ended his speech with his campaign slogan.

Among the next speakers was Khurelsukh and in terms of the reception for his speech seemed to be by far the most popular. He received at least as much applause as Enkbold did. He leans on the lectern as he speaks, engages the audience, and even cracked a joke (I missed it, but he was the only speaker that elicited laughter).

He spoke about populism, rejecting it for Mongolia and mentioned Chinggis Khaan in the next sentence.

The impression of a “crown prince” was reinforced by the big smile that former PM Su Batbold offered during Khurelshukh’s speech.

After these speeches, there was a grand stage photo op, some cheering, but nothing along the lines of what I expected. The cheers subsided as the music ended and I stepped back from my aisle seat to give the older party activists in my row a chance to get closer to their leadership as they exited the hall.

In the end, it is very hard for me to tell whether I had simply expected more exuberance than is typical of these events, or whether this event was somewhat symptomatic of the MPP campaign in general, with somewhat limited enthusiasm for the candidate.

 

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MPRP Campaign not Feeling like a Protest Movement

By Julian Dierkes

Note: I wrote this post on June 21 and was in the countryside without WiFi. Since then, more “revelations” about the illegal donation Ganbaatar is alleged to have accepted, have come out. That information is not reflected in this post.

In the last days of the campaign, there are lots of whispers about the various poll results that the parties have, giving them hints about leaders in the race to become president. Those polls are not published (and would be illegal to publish under the election law) and they are never revealed after the election to show how they performed in predicting outcomes.

However, given the methodological challenge that all surveys in Mongolia face (few landlines, multiple cell phone lines, how to sample in countryside, lack of social statistics to be able to construct a valid sample, etc.), I doubt that these internal polls are of such a quality that they actually predict much, even though many if not most of the empirical Mongolian social scientists seem to be involved in polling of some kind during the election season.

Further confirmation that the polls might not be of great methodological soundness comes in the fact that I have now heard very confident 2nd-hand-reports from various directions that have any of the three candidates leading. “Oh, the MPP is panicking, Ganbaatar is in the lead.” “The DP is really revving up its campaign since Battulga has managed to grab the lead”, etc. I generally discount these whispers.

Of course, my impressionistic prediction is no better than a poll, but at least it is my own impressions that contribute to it.

Second MPRP Rally: Dalanzadgad

By pure travel accident, I saw Ganbaatar and a MPRP rally for the second time during this campaign while I have yet to see either of the other candidates live.

Ganbaatar appeared in the early evening of June 21 in Dalanzadgad, capital of Umnugovi. He spoke on a large square in front of the beautiful naadam stadium.

The crowd was even smaller than when I saw him speak in Tsetserleg earlier in the campaign, no more than a 1,000. As in the earlier event, the audience was dominated by older people and flag-waving and cheering party workers.

As is probably typical of most public rallies like this, local grandees and celebrities spoke before and after Ganbaatar’s speech. There were rows of flag-bearers arranged around the square and the stage was festooned with balloons. There was a large screen that played a loop of Ganbaatar campaign commercials. Somewhat funnily, there was a DP campaign ger right behind the screen so that the DP party flags were fairly visible from the main square.

Protest Movement

Ganbaatar was not a MPRP member before his nomination and was a member of parliament as an independent. He was anointed the MPRP candidate by N Enkhbayar the undisputed leader of the MPRP. The party’s calculus must have been that since their candidate would have an outside chance at best, might as well nominate a prominent candidate who would cement the party’s reputation as a guardian of the people’s uneasiness with MANAN (MPP-DP dominance).

But to have a shot at making it into a second round at least, Ganbaatar would have had to expand his appeal significantly beyond the MPRP’s which was well under 10%. The main opportunity was thus the personal appeal of the candidate and the building of momentum via a protest movement.

Ganbaatar’s Appeal

At the two public rallies I witnessed, I saw neither much personal appeal, nor evidence of an enthused protest movement.

Ganbaatar’s speeches were relatively short and he is not a powerful speaker. He was generally left standing by himself at the microphone and does not have gestures that liberate him from that slightly awkward set-up.

Supporters dutifully cheered (mostly on cue), but in Tsetserleg they were much more enthusiastic in cheering Enkhbayar and in Dalanzadgad much less enthusiastic in cheering Oyunbat, former MP from the aimag, and presumed local favourite to lead this rally. Looking at the crowd from the stage’s perspective, I did not see rapt or even particularly interested listening.

He did vary his speech, for example, toning down his stance on Oyu Tolgoi and other large mining projects (source of employment and wealth in Umnugovi, of course), by emphasizing that he was only asking questions about the contracts and agreements regarding these projects, not fundamentally questioning them.

Lack of Enthusiasm

Overall, the event was fairly lacklustre. It did not impress me as a nascent or blooming protest movement.

Of course, much of the campaign is playing out in the media, broadcast and social, so I would not suggest that we can draw conclusions on the basis of two rallies, but given the uphill battle that the Ganbaatar was facing, I did not come away from these events expecting to be surprised by results on June 26.

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Choosing Balance

By Julian Dierkes

At first glance (including my initial thoughts some weeks ago), it would seem that last year’s MPP triumph in the parliamentary election should make M Enkhbold, the MPP’s candidate, the clear favourite in this year’s presidential election.

He has been party chairman for some time, led the MPP into last year’s election, installed J Erdenebat as prime minister last summer and has served as UIX chairman since then. The sheer scale of the election victory last year should really speak to voters’ preference for Enkhbold’s leadership.

But Not So Fast…

  1. Did voters really elect the MPP last year? Many of them probably threw the DP out of office more than that they chose the MPP.
  2. M Enkhbold does not seem to be particularly popular. He is certainly not very charismatic, but many voters simply don’t seem to warm up to him very much. He seems fairly wooden and doesn’t display any obvious empathy with many voters. This lack of popularity is more important in the presidential contest than in the parliamentary election because this is a direct election of a single person. Even with the majoritarian voting system employed last year, voters were selecting MPs as part of a party and potential government. In the presidential election, they are directly electing a person as president, making personality and personal characteristics perhaps more important.
  3. In speaking to (a very much not random sample of) campaign activists and workers, the enthusiasm for his candidacy even in the MPP seems relatively low. It might also be the generally low-energy nature of the campaign so far (the fact that DP and MPRP activists are also not enthused about their candidates speaks to that), but that seems especially true of the MPP which should be self-confident and delighted in their current political dominance.
  4. There are few distinctions between the party platforms (scroll through https://blogs.ubc.ca/mongolia/category/politics/elections/presidential-2017/ to read summaries of the platforms and also some analyses), making personality even more important as a criterion.
  5. But, in addition, given their lack of any particular enthusiasm for the MPP last year, some voters may consider it important to balance the current political dominance of the MPP and a vote against Enkbold (Battulga, Ganbaatar or a blank/spoiled ballot) in the first and second rounds might be exactly that. So, perhaps voters will choose another candidate not as an endorsement of that person or their platform, but simply as not-MPP.

It is totally unclear to what numerical portion of the electorate some such reasoning might apply and what impact it will have on turnout or the result, but it is a logic that several Mongolians have articulated to me recently.

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The Diplomat Articles on Presidential Election

By Julian Dierkes and Mendee

We’ve written two posts in The Diplomat that looked at different aspects of the presidential election:

  1. Julian Dierkes “The Race for Mongolia’s Presidency Begins“, June 6
  2. Julian Dierkes and Mendee J “Election 2017: Making Mongolia Great Again?“, June 20
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Allegations Against All Candidates

By Julian Dierkes

One of the recurring challenges in trying to keep up with political developments in Mongolia is the extent to which these developments seem to be driven by rumours and accusations.

That is especially the case during an election.

What I continue to find very odd in this context is that allegations often do not seem to be examined as to their basic plausibility as they are repeated in the public.

In my remarks below, I do not claim that any of the allegations are unfounded or that individuals against whom they are levelled are innocent. I simply do not have the resources to really investigate any of these allegations and can only hope that Mongolian journalists and civil society will continue to intensify their activities in this regard.

In the past week, allegations against all three candidates have been made and have coloured the campaign. I look at these allegations to consider whether they appear to be plausible at all.

I ask these questions in good faith, not to bias any views about any of the presidential candidates, but as a comment on the campaign and the way it is unfolding. See also, my statement on my independence as an observer of developments in Mongolia.

Ganbaatar’s Moonies

A video is circulating that allegedly shows MPRP candidate S Ganbaatar receiving ₩50m (₮100m) from someone associated with the Korean Unification Church.

I do not have the technical resources to investigate the authenticity of the recording.

But I have to note that this is the third campaign in a row (if I recall correctly) that alleged funding from the Unification Church surfaces in Mongolia. The last two times these allegations involved Elbegdorj.

Some questions:

  • Did anyone ever follow up on these allegations after the campaign and find out whether there is concrete evidence?
  • What interest does the Unification Church have in Mongolian elections? Is there a plausible argument that would see them funding Ganbaatar’s campaign?

  • Given past allegations about Elbegdorj, would Ganbaatar not be especially careful in interactions with the Unification Church?
  • Would the amount alleged to have been exchanged be enough for Ganbaatar to consider compromising his reputation and integrity?

Battulag’s Offshore Account

DP candidate Kh Battulga’s reputation is perhaps even worse than that of most Mongolian politicians in terms of mixing personal profit with government business.

With the release of the Panama Papers last year and the appearance of a handful of Mongolian names in them, offshore accounts have increasingly been demonized even though it is unclear whether they are primarily suspected of serving as tax havens (not that plausible given Mongolia’s 10% flat tax until the IMF demanded a more progressive income tax), or as evidence for corruption. Anyone who is wealthy in Mongolia, of course, would be likely to hold a significant portion of their wealth in currencies other than the Tugrik given the Mongolian currency’s weakness over the past several years.

Battulga’s reputation and the discussion of offshore accounts makes it a plausible allegation that Battulga holds US$1.1b in offshore accounts.

But…

Wait a second. Mongolia’s GDP is somewhere around US$12b. Could Battulag’s wealth really amount to the equivalent of 1/10 of the country’s GDP? Given the rapid growth of Mongolian GDP over recent years, it’s not very plausible to think of the accumulation of such wealth from compounded financial income or investments of earlier gains. In his recent statement on earnings, Battulga only reported holdings in meat processing and tourism. Those businesses do not contribute 10% to Mongolia’s GDP and I do not see any particular reason that these would be sectors that are so overvalued or so massively profitable that they would produce massive wealth.

But the amount of wealth that is reported to be held by Mongolians is a question that would need further investigation as well. Is it in line with the relation between GDP and reported wealth in other countries, for example? If it is, then perhaps the US$1.1b figure would become more plausible.

Also, some of Mongolia’s other purported mega-wealthy (e.g. Odjargal of MCS) might have something to say about Battulga’s industrial enterprises claiming any significant fraction of GDP.

Of course, offshore holdings are not the same as a share of holdings of GDP, but the money would have to have come from somewhere.

So, if there is a $1.1b fortune out there, Battulga’s statement on his holdings and earnings can’t possibly be true.

But…

Where does this $1.1b figure come from in the first place. It appears to be reported on a website called wealthx.com for the year 2015.

Is this plausible? Here are some of the elements that make me wonder:

There are very few references to the wealthx reporting in the mainstream press and no references I could find at all in academic writing.

The website of wealthx is very sparse. It offers nearly no information about the company, other than that it is relatively clear that it is a consultancies that seems to sell “access” to überwealthy individuals.

Most worryingly to me as a social scientist, there is not even a hint of a discussion of methodology. There are some vague references to research, but what kind of research? Could it be that vein wannabe-billionaires self-report their fabulous net-worth here? Could Battuga’s industrial-sized vanity (yes, he did build a 40m-tall statue of Chinggis Khaan) have gotten the better of him and he reported his fortune as over $1b?

I have written to wealthx to try to learn more about their methodology but have yet to receive a response.

And what is even reported here? “Estimated net worth”. There is nothing about offshore accounts in that term. Yes, as I mentioned above, someone who did have significant amounts of cash in Mongolia would probably convert this to other currencies and likely hold this outside the country (and there’s nothing illegal or nefarious about that), but “offshore accounts” specifically as convoluted constructions of shell companies, etc. that are hidden on exotic islands to avoid taxes? Not mentioned here.

And, net worth does not mean cash, it means what his holdings are worth. Clearly, again, the holdings reported in his recent declarations are not worth $1b, they may not even be worth $10m.

Again, either his recent statements are wrong or this $1.1b figure is wrong.

None of this is conclusive in any way and others who have access to more detailed financial reporting in Mongolia and more resources to investigate may come to better conclusions, but for myself, I have to conclude that neither the US$1.1b offshore allegation is plausible, nor is Battulga’s income statement.

Enkhbold’s₮60b

Ah yes, the millions and billions are being tossed around fairly liberally.

The current allegation against MPP candidate M Enkhbold is actually an “old” one, in that it stems from a recording of an alleged conversation involving Enkhbold about party finances and how the sale of high offices in the MPP government could be used to gain funding (namely,₮60b). A small part of this recording was released during the parliamentary election last year. [Note, that I am not trying to provide a full account of this allegation here, but rather look at its basic plausibility.]

Most people find it quite plausible that offices are being sold, in fact most Mongolians I speak to about this, assume that this is going on, irrespective of party in power. That, of course, is outrageous and shocking in and of itself. But the allegation is plausible on the face of it.

At the same time, I would have to say that from my personal perspective if there actually is evidence of the involvement of a party leader in the sale of offices, that would certainly disqualify that person from any political leadership position in my eyes.

But…

The whole context of this allegation is complicated and casts doubt on its credibility that will have to be dispelled by further investigations, investigations that I, again, have no resources for.

The self-styled whistleblower, G Dorjzodov, has been doubted by some, though that happens to all whistleblowers, almost by definition, and does not by any stretch mean that he is not credible.

Why were these allegations not investigated further during the past year? [See paragraph on “media” below.] They were to some extent, but a court seems to have concluded that there was no definitive evidence that the voices on the recording are genuine.

Now, additional materials have been released, but those will also need verification.

With these allegations, I would thus conclude that they are at least basically plausible, but that they require much more serious investigation of the recording and of the parties involved.

Dirty Campaign

These allegations are partly just evidence for how dirty the current campaign is.

Any views on mild austerity imposed by the IMF? We don’t know, that is not being discussed.

How to achieve growth that is economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable? The parties are not going to tell Mongolians.

Does anyone have workable solutions to Ulaanbaatar’s winter-time air pollution catastrophe?

Instead much energy and resources is being spent on looking for dirt on the other candidates and amplifying any discoveries.

Impact

I have to wonder whether all these revelations have any impact on Mongolian voters. Are they not sick of endless revelations with ever-more outrageous amounts of money? When the allegations fly in all directions, does that not simply give credence to a view that sees Mongolian parties as  fundamentally corrupt?

Of course it is idle to speculate on this, since we will not know on what basis Mongolians will cast their ballot on June 26.

Media

The fact that allegations of this sort are so massively amplified does make me wonder about the role of the media. It seems like most media outlets content themselves with shouting about allegations rather than investigating them. Or, they are so shackled by the funds they receive from parties, companies and others to safeguard against negative reporting about these “donors”, that they will not investigate these allegations.

Obviously, there are some exceptions to this. I very much hope that a different kind of journalistic ethic continues to grow beyond few examples like MongolTV’s E Lkhagva and D Jargal “de Facto”, so that the public’s interest is served by investigating the wrong-doing of officials by providing credible and concrete evidence.

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Post-Election Timelines

By Julian Dierkes

There seems to be a strong possibility that none of the three candidates will achieve a majority of votes in the first round. Elsewhere I’ve written more about specifics regarding blank ballots, etc.

Second Round

What’s the schedule on which a second round might unfold?

§147.1 of election law says that GEC submits determination of whether majority has been obtained within 10 days of end of election day.

That suggests any time between June 27 and July 6.

§148.2 says that re-election has to be announced within week after decision.

At the earliest that would mean June 27 announcement. At the latest, that would be July 13. I haven’t found a paragraph that specifies a minimum number of days between the announcement and the carrying out of the second round.

Presumably, the government would want the second round to happen as early as possible to maintain a distance from naadam when turnout might drop significantly.

Oddly, these timelines seem to be contradicted by §105.2 which reads,

The central election authority shall set and announce the second round date within 14 days after the first polling day, and organize thereof.

Quorum

Another twist in the timeline may be the requirement that each polling station has a minimum turnout of 50%.

§106 Additional Polling

§106.1 If more than 50 percent of all voters registered on the list of voters registered on the list of voters in a constituency fail to engage in the polling, additional polling shall be held in each constituency.

§106.2 […]

§106.3 Additional polling shall be held within a week after the decision thereon is made.

§106.4 A decision to hold additional polling shall specify polling station location, date and time of additional polling, and that polling shall be held on weekends.

§106.5 Voters who did not engage in the first polling and are registered on the list of voters shall be entitled to engage in additional polling and cast their votes.

§106.6 Attendance and the number of votes of those who engaged in additional polling shall be added to the attendance and the number of votes of those who engaged in the first polling to determine the sum of all voters of the election precinct.

In a situation where there is additional polling required as per §106.1, does that further delay a decision about a second round as per §147.1? So if additional elections are held on July 1/2 that would push a second round further back, again towards naadam.

Conclusion

In the end, I’m not entirely sure about timelines especially if some precincts will require additional polling and/or a second round is necessary…

Acknowledgement

As with a previous post, this post benefited from a Twitter exchange with Iveelt Ts.

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The Likelihood of Constitutional Reform

By Julian Dierkes

The likelihood of constitutional reform in Mongolia is primarily determined by party politics at the moment.

Discussions of the constitution have been active in recent years. I have written about the extent to which the campaign platforms seem to ignore these discussions.

But how likely is it that constitutional reform will be taken up after the election?

Recalibrating the Balance of Power Between Presidency and Parliament

One of the main topics of discussions about constitutional reform is some kind of re-balancing of power between parliament and the presidency. This suggests two clear options, i.e. a turn toward a (more) parliamentary or a (more) presidential democracy. Generally, current discussions seem to favour an expansion of the powers of parliament.

Of course, the MPP comfortably owns the 2/3 majority of MPs that is required to initiate constitutional changes by sending them to a popular vote. 65 of 76 seats? No problem!

As current party chair and UIX chairman, M Enkhbold controls the legislative agenda of the governing MPP. But, should he be elected as president, he has to relinquish his status as party chairman, nay even member of the party.

What Would Happen Under President Enkhbold?

If he wins the presidency, there will be a significant battle in the MPP over control of the party. Obviously, Enkhbold would want a close associate in that role to coordinate presidential policy with parliamentary and government decisions. But, it is far from clear that such a close associate will win out in the leadership contest in the MPP. Party leaders have typically also been the prime minister, so that could be an additional battle that would ensue.

Even if an Enkhbold associate were to win out in these battles, this would not guarantee that proposals for constitutional reforms would strengthen the presidency as President Enkhbold would undoubtedly prefer. By the same token, it seems unlikely that a non-Enkhbold party leader would open pursue a curtailment of the powers of an MPP president.

And What Might Happen Under President GanTulga?

In the seemingly unlikely event of a Ganbaatar or Battulga victory, it seems almost certain that parliament would pursue constitutional reform very quickly in order to curtail the powers of that particular president.

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Blank Ballots as Protest

By Julian Dierkes

There does seem to be a significant level of frustration among Mongolian voters about the choices presented to them in this election. With allegations about very serious misconduct (if tape recording of Enkhbold discussing price list for positions is true, that is an outrageous, blatant form of corruption that rots the very core of government work and policy! Other allegations also very serious), this frustration may be mounting even more.

If the “dark campaigning” leads to more frustration among voters that might have a number of consequences in the election.

The most obvious is that turnout might drop. For it to drop below the 50% minimum seems unlikely though not impossible. The lowest recorded turnout by aimag in the 2013 presidential election was Dornod with 60.74% for example.

Elsewhere, I have discussed what implications turnout might have generally for the election.

Another option for voters to register their displeasure with the candidates is to submit blank ballots.

I have been trying to figure out what impact blank ballots might have if they are submitted in large numbers.

The relevant paragraphs of the election law (as unofficially translated by the General Election Commission and distributed to election observers) seem to be §99 and §147.

Here is how they appear in the unofficial translation:
Chapter Twelve
Tabulation, Consolidation of Polling Results
Subchapter One
Vote Counting
§99 Invalidation of vote and ballot papers.

§99.1 The following votes shall be deemed spoiled: […]

§99.2 If a voter made no mark on the ballot paper, it shall be deemed to be a vote cast in support of nobody and a valid ballot paper. {This article was amended on May 5, 2016 by law}

Chapter Seventeen
Presidential Election
Subchapter Three
Election Results
§147 Pass a Law Recognizing the President’s Powers

§147.1 The central election authority shall deem the candidate who has obtained a majority of all votes cast in the primary voting elected as the President and submit its decision […] within 10 days after the polling day ends.

§147.2 […]

Subchapter Four
Re-election
§148 Cancellation of a primary polling and re-election

§148.1 If no presidential candidate obtained the majority vote in the second polling [this must be a mistake, should be “primary”], the central election authority shall deem the primary polling cancelled.

§148.2 If the central election authority deemed the primary polling cancelled due to no presidential candidate obtaining a majority vote, a re-election shall be set and announced within a week after the decision is made.

What Does this Mean?

It seems then that blank ballots are included in the total number of ballots of which a candidate has to have 50%+1 to win in the first round. For the front runner, these blank ballots thus play the same role as votes for other candidates in the determination of the need for a second round.

Voters who are dissatisfied with the choices offered thus have some strategic options.

Submitting a blank ballot will register their protest and will make it harder for a candidate to win in the first round. In the past, the GEC has reported the number of unmarked ballots (2013 presidential). That number was 1.1% nation wide in 2013 with a high of 2.17% in Bayan-Olgi and a low of 0.8% in Ulaanbaatar district Sukhbaatar. Given the mood of frustration, it will be interesting to see what this number of unmarked ballots will be in the coming election, or possibly in a second round.

Submitting a spoiled ballot (i.e. wrong mark on the paper, multiple candidates marked), on the other hand, would not increase the likelihood of a 2nd round, as spoiled votes would not be counted in determining whether a candidate has obtained 50% of the vote.

Acknowledgement

Thanks to Iveelt Ts for helping me figure out the right paragraphs and their meaning by also comparing the original Mongolian versions.

Posted in Elections, JD Democratization, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | 1 Comment

Presidential Competencies and Election Platforms

By Julian Dierkes

One of the prominent topics in political discussions of the past 2-3 years has been constitutional reform. This has been brought about by the indeterminate compromise between a parliamentary and presidential democracy that the framers of the Mongolian constitution in 1992 reached. Periods of cohabitation (i.e. when the president of a different party than the majority of parliament as has been the case for the past year) are particularly difficult, but even when they represent the same party, conflict between the president and party leaders and the prime minister has been frequent.

Constitutional Powers

In practice, the main power that is reserved for the president is oversight over various parts of the judicial system. This has been even clearer under Pres. Elbegdorj as he has asserted this authority over the Anti-Corruption Agency (ATG), but also over the courts.

While the president also chairs the National Security Council and commands the military, this doesn’t actually give him/her the power to make military decisions. Likewise, the power to appoint ambassadors, doesn’t give formal authority over foreign policy. That’s why there are ministries of foreign affairs and of defence who are cabinet members, not subordinate to the president.

Current Debates

For a number of different reasons, constitutional debates have become more pressing in the past 2-3 years. Various reform proposals have been floated, and there currently is an experimental process in deliberative democracy that is meant to support these discussions, though it remains somewhat obscure in origins and directions.

Promises in the Election Platforms

Yet, despite these debates, the election platforms suggest an all-powerful presidency.

Battulga

After its broad preamble and topics covered under “2.1 Human Rights and Justice”, virtually all of Battulga’s campaign platform addresses topics that are not under the jurisdiction of the president. Take “2.3 Health Care” as an example. Few Mongolians would disagree with the aspiration that “Health Care and Medicine will be updated with newest technologies. A Mongolian citizen will be able to get diagnostics and treatments of the highest level in his homeland.” In fact, this addresses the serous topic of medical tourism that allows wealthier Mongolians to receive superior medical services abroad while ordinary Mongolians must rely on a domestic health care system that is hampered by budgetary and technology constraints. Yes, this is an important issue, but is it one where the president has any impact?

Ganbaatar

The beginning of Ganbaatar’s election platform is particularly ironic in this regard.

He opens his platform with a discussion of the “the gap between the election promises made by the political parties and their action after the election”. Yet, the very next paragraph discusses unemployment as a paramount problem. Yes, conversations with Mongolians and the results of several surveys confirm that unemployment is a serious issue. But, Ganbaatar proposes to address this issue by,

  • Making the government accountable;
  • Reducing and eliminating unemployment;
  • Reducing and eradicating poverty.

And how exactly would a president achieve that?

The remaining sections of Ganbaatar’s platform do seem more closely focused on some of the roles that the president takes on. The second part addresses justice and the judicial system. When he talks about “public interest” (part three) and national pride (part four), these are all broad claims about the direction of the country where the moral and symbolic leadership seems of a president seems more appropriate than in the concrete fight against unemployment. The platform largely continues in this vein, though that also means that it is exceedingly vague, sometimes even poetic in its aspirations.

Enkhbold

In structure, Enkhbold’s campaign platform is built more like Battulga’s than Ganbaatar’s. That is, he similarly starts with some very broad aspiration of his mission as president and some issues grouped under “National Unity, Mongolian Pride”.

After that discussion, a long list of issues that Enkhbold would hope to tackle follows. Where the first set of issues refers to the judiciary, the connection to the tasks of a president is fairly direct. But further down that list, for example in a section on “Middle Class – Wealth Creation”, it is less clear what the connection to constitutionally specified tasks for the president is.

Of course, Enkhbold would serve as a president with the collaboration of an MPP-led government and legislature, so he would be more likely to be able to implement some of his goals by collaborating with the government, but not necessarily through the nature of the presidency.

Caveats

Of course, the president does have the right to introduce legislation in the Ikh Khural. So, in some ways, he would be able to pursue an agenda on topics where s/he has no direct involvement. But is that what Mongolians are looked for, namely an alternative legislator who is not involved in the implementation of the legislation s/he introduces?

The president also chairs the National Security Council. Given the mandate of the NSC to safeguard the country, it has previously made statements on health care, the environment and other issues that are deemed closely linked to the welfare of the nation. So, statements on these topics by Enkhbold and Battulga could be interpreted to fall roughly into the portfolios addressed by the NSC. At the same time, the NSC itself is not an implementing body and relies on the government to actually do the things it maps out.

Audit of Electoral Campaigns

I’ve always been very interested in provisions in Mongolia’s election laws that require an audit and approval of electoral platforms by the General Election Commission. This is in part to present a situation like 2008 where the MPP and DP outbid each other in cash grants that they promised the population. Not only do platforms have to be approved, but candidates actually have to stick to these approved platforms in the campaign. Good idea, no?

Yet, all the examples of items in electoral platforms above suggest that this audit does not check electoral platforms on the question whether the president is actually in a position to affect the change that s/he has promised.

Coming Constitutional Reform

Will this mismatch between the constitutional role of the presidency and the campaign platforms matter?

There other factors in this election that will probably have a greater impact on the likelihood of constitutional reform. But that’s a topic for another post, I think.

Note

This blog post started with a conversation I had with a member of the diplomatic corps in Ulaanbaatar who pointed out the mismatch between constitutional powers of the presidency and the campaign platforms.

Posted in Constitution, Democratic Party, Elections, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | Leave a comment