Guest Post: Election Platforms on Health

Posted on June 21, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Tsogtbaatar B

Health stands among the most essential and common social goods in Mongolia. Yet, there is often displeasure among the Mongolian public for how health services are delivered and doubts where the overall sector’s policies are headed. The public health concept as the most promising gateway to better development of health sector and population health is still understudied and underutilized. Quickly analyzing the health platforms of several parties with seemingly comprehensive proposals on health that were submitted to the National auditing office  I offer the following categorization of priorities and loopholes.

Progressive

  • SMART (specific-measurable-attainable-realistic-timebound) approach seen to be considered within some objectives: “Enact policies specific to improving access of mobile clinic, telemedicine and public health centers’ services to remote and marginalized communities.” (KhUN)
  • Logical continuation of a strategy or an intervention that has previously been successfully or adequately implemented such as the next phase of risk-based health screening and early detection that was proposed by the MPP, “National programs – Healthy liver, Healthy teeth” (MPP), “Improving the implementation of performance-based financing” (DP)
  • Innovation and recognition of healthy environment for population health took place in “mitigating the environmental health impacts through the advancement of technology and PPP” (NC), use of AI in disease prevention , “Introduction of national program-Cervical cancer free Mongolia” (both MPP)
  • Specific interventions proposed such as further developing the emergency care to the international level through PPP on air-emergency care (MPP and NC), “establishment of Health promotion centers to mitigate post-COVID impacts” (DP)
  • DP has declared mental health problems as an underlying challenge and proposed to strengthen national capacity to diagnose, treat, monitor and prevent. AI is proposed to be used in doing so.
  • DP has identified a need to revise and implement the State Policy on Health, necessary treatment guidelines and regulations in line with international standards. 80+ Ageing strategy and very important health professionals’ liability insurance law proposed to be developed.
  • Highlighted the need to develop and implement comprehensive human resources program including capacity building, social aspect and job security (DP)
  • NC segregated its activities based on demographic groups which makes their target and resources more efficient and realistic. Such public health interventions by the same coalition such as “Monging Milk” and “Nutritious Lunch” are specifically targeted at lowering the child obesity and poor dental health among children.

Stagnant

  • Generic such as “Modernization and standardization of health facilities and infrastructure” (KhUN) “establishment of New diagnostic centers at the regional level to save people’s time and hassle” or “Provide policy support to the establishment of traditional medical hospitals by the private sector” (NC) which all have been works-in-progress for few decades in the health sector with varied success rates.
  • Inaccurate word selections, crude literal translations, disengagement, typos such as “Improving diagnostic capacity, treatment choice and patient’s result through improving quality assurance for health equipment, technology and pharmaceutical products” (Khun), “To reform health sector’s administration system and improve regulatory environment-..Эрүүл мэндийн салбарын удирдлагын тогтолцоонд рефорт хийж..” (MPP). This is very confusing and begs for better wording and conceptualization in the latter sentence which could be “To reform/refine develop health system governance” as it is the overarching concept that refers to processes, structures and institutions that are in place to oversee and manage overall healthcare system including administration and leadership aspects within.
  • Too vague, general, obvious or unclear such as decreasing the burden of preventable disease through the promotion of prevention initiatives including health education and detection (Khun), “Building capacity of health professionals and improving coverage of care through investment of specialized and continuous training” (Khun),“Reforming the health insurance system to alleviate financial hardship for citizens” (MPP), “Strengthening the public health system to prevent from diseases and to promote healthy lifestyles such as exercising regularly and eating healthy” (MPP). Wish these were not too symbolic and vague, Instead, were direct, targeted and segregated.
  • Too symbolic, impractical or misleading: “Promotion of universal health care so that all citizens can receive necessary health services without any financial barrier” (KhUN). Over the few decades, Mongolia has gradually been attempting to move away from the Universal health system free-of-charge by systematically introducing a balanced mix of social health insurance system and out-of-pocket system. “To decrease morbidity and mortality of preventable diseases by 35%” (DP)
  • Flat-out ineffective, not-cost-efficient or overpromising: “To increase financial support of those who are required to be treated overseas due to certain illnesses that are not treatable in Mongolia. And to sign collaboration agreement with hospitals overseas to send Mongolians to” (MPP). This non-cost-efficient overpromise, triggered by politicians in the past, would simply go against the very objective of State Policy on Health to invest into and build national capacity in decreasing the number of medical procedures that are not diagnosed and treated within Mongolia. Unmet need in this regard can be unbearable under the current morbidity burden and scarce economic capability, nationally, as well as the general public’s very critical approach on the selection of a few who ends up getting the monetary support.
    “To implement policies to train 3000 doctors, 10000 nurses and 500 care takers internationally and locally” (MPP). Apart from nurse practitioners, Mongolia is regarded to have more than enough health professionals per capita. Instead, the main flaw rests upon equal distribution and improving the quality of existing undergraduate, graduate and residential level training at the national academic and teaching medical institutions as well as improving their fair compensation in line with the workload and labor security.
    “Building the reference level hospitals in every regional center” (MPP). This can be better conceptualized as Strengthening the current capacity of health professionals, equipment and financial mechanisms of Regional Diagnostic and Treatment Centers (RDTC) and improving the patient-referral system between the provincial health facilities and RDTCs, since RDTCs have been built in all 5 regions, years back.
  • Lack of current scenario, data, and clarity: “bring the state portion of social health insurance premium to a medium level” (KhUN, DP)

Overall, these portfolios can be applauded for their mention of leading causes of mortality and some morbidity and their relevant interventions among the general population. A largely vague but very common mention of how crucial public health and prevention of disease are. MDP provocatively believes that some hospital buildings need to be auctioned off and modernized. Health is rightfully prioritized and positioned in the opening sections as a standalone chapter.

However, they generally and chronically lack the following: 1) Accurate diagnosis of Mongolian health system, its current state and challenges, and threat to population health 2) Accumulated and emerging flaws in governance, financing and service delivery 3) Prioritized, clear strategies and actions to fix existing flaws at the national policy level as well as service delivery levels 4) Failure to link and address inadequate social determinants of health and adverse environmental health problems as triggering factors of particular diseases and their preexisting health risks. There are no clear division nor linkage between the layers of proposed policy/challenges/ intervention/ activities /objectives/expected result.

These flaws were further weakened by the absence of sound data, clear implementation strategy, achievable goals/targets as well as both adequate financial resources and motivated human resources, within the next 4-year timeframe.

Grades

KhUN: C (innovative, jumped throughout, vague, lacks backbone)

Green party: F (seemingly complete cloning of the Khun’s proposal which is a big red flag)

MPP: B (innovative, continued implementation proposed, vaguely written,  left pores, over promising)

DP: B+ (better summarized and systematized, emphasized on policy level, redundancy of vaguely “improving” concept, vague in areas, overpromising)

NC: C+ (progressive, didn’t cover broad policy areas, but specific in those touched upon, overpromising)

About Tsogtbaatar

Dr. Tsogtbaatar is an experienced PhD with a demonstrated history of working for the Academic, State, Non-profit and International institutions in the areas of Public health, Health policy and Health Administration. He was involved in the development of the State policy on health as well as Election flatforms back in 2016 and 2020. Dr. Tsogtbaatar has received 3 degrees in health from prestigious institutions in 3 countries and is currently residing in Colorado.

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Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Health, Ikh Khural 2024, KhUN, Mongolian People's Party, Party Politics, Politics, Public Policy, Public Service, Tsogtbaatar Byambaa | Leave a comment

More Election Talk Around Town

Posted on June 20, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

I was about to head to the countryside until election day with likely fewer opportunities to post but now, inclement weather has led to delay of that plan, so a quick set of notes before I leave the city.

General Calm

Compared to what I recall from previous election, downtown Ulaanbaatar seems not to be involved in the election very much.

The new central posterboards for election posters have led to a lack of visibility of the election in the street. I noted in a previous post that there seemed to be many more campaign offices in more residential areas, but they remain absent from the city centre.

 

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It is difficult to tell whether this calm is a sign of apathy among political parties or just the impact of changes to the electoral law. If it is the latter – i.e. the mandated focus on the official poster boards where parties have to equally show all district candidates – then this would seem to be another hurdle for smaller parties to climb. When campaigning is restricted in this way, how can you get a message to voters. The answer given is, of course, social media which Marissa has taken a closer look at. But surely, this cannot be the entire answer as there are some voters who will not be reached by a social media campaign and some who might not be persuaded by such a campaign.

But, this calm may also be restricted to the city centre.

 

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Where’s Waldo, the Candidate

A “where’s Waldo”-style image is called a Wimmelbild in German, wimmeln is to crowd, probably an onomatopoeia, Bild is image. I always liked that word.

Anyway, candidates and their campaign events are hard to find. I and others have tried to reach out to candidates we know individually, as well as to campaign organizations to try to get schedules of appearances and rallies, but are not getting answers. It is unclear why that might be. Schedules are only being released day-of, and various contacts seem to be hesitant to give out information. It is unclear whether they are nervous about foreigners attending election events (it is not like I am looking to be on stage, I quietly stand in the back, take in atmosphere and speeches), or generally nervous about candidates’ schedules. What that also means, however, is that it seems unlike that voters are very aware of candidates’ plans.

DP

According to most views around town, the DP continues to be in disarray. One event that was advertised online and which I was therefore able to attend, seemed to indicate this as well. It also pointed to the struggle to let voters know about events, or to rely on social media entirely for such announcements, as this event was very poorly attended and did not seem to capture casual pedestrians’ attention.

 

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In principle, this was an event I was especially interested in as it involved candidates from the party list. One of the strategic challenges I had been thinking about is how a party list candidate might campaign and how party organizations might allocate resources to party list candidates. Obviously, as a party list candidate, one would want to build the general appeal of the party and could therefore be a candidate anywhere. Given variable places on the list and thus likelihood of being elected, that may mean that candidates are campaign not only for others, but also may be campaigning for others who have a much higher likelihood of being elected.

In the case of this event, it was three younger candidates from the DP party list who were campaigning. The DP lists is generally being criticized for offering very little to voters to capture an “out with the old” sentiment among voters, in contrast to the MPP list that seems designed to do just that. But these three younger candidates were probably meant to exude a freshness or innocence given their ages and lack of previous political experience.

This kind of voter segmentation might make a lot of sense from the campaign’s perspective as well, i.e. if you are trying to promote the party generically to increase the vote share in the proportional representation, perhaps useful to segment voters and offer particular focus areas. In this case, this was youth, under the slogan of “Democracy Calling”. Given the lack of a crowd that came, the puns on that slogan are obvious.

All in all, only about fifty people turned up,  many of them wearing DP-insignia t-shirts and carrying DP tote bags, suggesting that they were working for the campaign not unrelated voters. Perhaps the purpose of this event, right in front of the Beatles statue with the State Department Store as a further background, was to film it for social media or other use. Surely different camera angles might mask the absence of an audience. But even more shocking – to me – than the lack of an audience and the apparent lack of surprise or frustration with the lack of an audience, the candidates delivered a very “traditional” campaign event, i.e. they stood on a stage and lectured voters. This is Gen Z campaigning? It did not elicit a single moment of applause, until E Bat-Uul showed up.

I have seen this in previous campaigns as well, i.e. an event where each of the three candidates could have easily sat down on a park bench and had a conversation with <10 voters, maybe even solicited their views or challenges and offered some discussion of how the DP program responded to those. Instead, the three candidates lectured.

MPP

Many of the discussions that I have joined have centred on interpretations of the MPP party list. The consensus remains that the composition was strategically very astute in that it has countered the impression of the MPP as the staid incumbent, instead signalling some kind of departure. Conversations then focus on identifying individuals on the list who are closely associated with Pres Khurelsukh, while others are more closely affiliated with PM Oyun-Erdene or MPP General Secretary Amarbayasgalant, perhaps even MP Uchral who is happy to tell all listeners that he was the second highest vote-getter in the last parliamentary election.

Vote Splitting

One of the unfortunate things about the absence of exit polling is that as researchers we will not be able to tell how voters behaved. Given the changes in the electoral system and especially the enlargement to 13 electoral districts, that would be particularly interesting.

For example, one might imagine some kind of typology of voters: straight party slate, split vote of major party + additional parties, split vote between major parties, split vote across additional parties (perhaps while voting a major party on the party vote). All of these seem plausible, but we can only speculate about voter behaviour. Where this will be relevant to the current election is to understand what frustrated voters might do if they go to vote. On the one hand, one might expect voter frustration to hurt the MPP, but perhaps also the DP. On the other hand, there may be some district races where frustrated voters are looking for alternatives and either converging on some such alternatives, or splitting their votes across multiple alternatives. The former scenario would lead to some candidates who are not MPP, DP, or even KhUN to be elected to parliament, while the latter would reinforce big party, perhaps MPP-dominance.

Party Finance

One of the changes that the recent party law introduced is more public funding for parties. That funding will be based on how well parties do in the party vote. This might explain why so many parties have chosen to nominate candidates for the party list even when their chances at gaining a seat will be slight. I’m hoping that we will have a post on this topic in the near future.

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Election Campaigning and Discussions on Social Media

Posted on June 16, 2024 by Marissa Smith

By Marissa J. Smith

A brief summary of trends I am observing on Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit:

Candidate Assets

Besides its usual excellent infographics presenting candidates and parties, ikon.mn has also released data visualizations on candidate’s assets (“Candidates of MPP, DP, HUN and National Alliance are leading in terms of the number of shares in the largest number of companies”). These have been being shared and discussed in the last day or two.

Short Form Video

While pictures of some of the campaign poster boards that Julian wrote about are circulating online, some parties have invested in the production of short form videos featuring candidates. CUP and PPP, lead respectively by former DP MPs Ts. Oyungerel and L. Gundalai, have also released one-on-one “podcast” like clips with some of their candidates. Those that I have viewed are autobiographical in nature, as printed campaign materials in past elections have been.

This example for an MPP candidate running for a seat in a non-Ulaanbaatar constituency establishes the candidate as a highly educated urbanite with an established lineage based in a rural locality (nutag). As is not uncommon with MPP promotional materials, the 20th and 21st Centuries are presented as following a continuous path of historical development:

This example, from DP breakaway CUP, in a diametrical contrast to MPP tropes, invokes the post-socialist period of transition navigated by entrepreneurial youth:

(This candidate’s meme-styled printed poster also elicited much comment on social media: https://www.reddit.com/r/mongolia/comments/1dfnwfz/election_in_mongolia_goes_crazy/)

Public assemblies

Social media-based parallels to assemblies on the central square of Ulaanbaatar have also crossed my feed, though none of these has as of yet taken off, become associated with a hashtag and gone viral.

On the evening of June 15, the DP held a memorial gathering,  photos of which are circulating on Facebook and Twitter. As reported by Xinhua and Agence France Press, in addition to Mongolian media, a DP party member and local leader was beaten and killed by a campaigner for an MPP candidate in Uvurkhangai aimag (part of the highly contested #1 constituency) on June 15. The candidate’s status has been revoked. As included in the DP’s facebook post, DP leader L. Gantumur called for an official apology from the MPP and that all MPP candidates for constituency #1 remove themselves from the election (this would include incumbent Speaker of Parliament Zandanshatar and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Battsetseg).

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A Walk Down Campaign Street

Posted on June 16, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

I’ve noted before that campaign activities so far seem oddly subdued. That was based on my impression mostly of the urban core of Ulaanbaatar. So, for the weekend, I was able to venture a bit further afield and found more of the campaign activities that I saw in previous elections in Mongolia (2012 | 2013 | 2016 | 2017 | 2020 | 2021).

I want to emphasize that my photos here are based on a relatively arbitrary walk down some busy roads in districts of Ulaanbaatar further outside the central area. I did not look for specific candidates and am not endorsing any of the parties by showing photos of their flags/materials, obviously.

Since I have foresworn Twitter, you might want to follow me on various other platforms as embedded below for updates on the election.

Voter Education

 

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Poster Boards

As I’ve also noted before, these seem to still be fairly empty even six days into the campaign…

New #Mongolia campaign style: public poster boards with assigned fields for candidates.
#Сонгууль #Сонгууль2024 #MGLpoli

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— Mongolia Focus (@mongoliafocus.bsky.social) Jun 13, 2024 at 10:03 PM

 

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Campaign Offices

Not surprisingly, MPP, DP and KhUN seem to be the most visible in terms of stores, kiosks and other buildings that have turned into campaign offices.

#Mongolia-ns sometimes think of MPP and DP together as Манан, the Fog Party. Funny when their campaign offices are so close together, here in Chingeltei.
#Сонгууль

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— Mongolia Focus (@mongoliafocus.bsky.social) Jun 15, 2024 at 10:23 PM

 

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More campaign impressions, this one in Songinokhairkhan.
#Mongolia #Сонгууль

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— Mongolia Focus (@mongoliafocus.bsky.social) Jun 16, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Rallies

I’ve only caught one real campaign rally with candidates giving speeches and all by randomly making my way around town. Perhaps I’ll be able to get some information about planned appearances in coming days as well.

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Campaign Materials

I’m hearing from others that they’re receiving lots of campaign materials in their apartments. I have not been blessed with those.

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Election Talk around Town

Posted on June 14, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

I’ve only been in Ulaanbaatar for a couple of days, but I am having lots of conversations with contacts about the election. As Mendee keeps emphasizing, I may be the person in Ulaanbaatar who is most excited about the election.

Here are some snippets of some of these conversations then.

Voting Process

There are some obvious concerns about voters’ understanding of how they will actually cast their ballot. This is not surprising given the significant shift from purely first-past the post voting, albeit in multi-member districts, to a mix of direct election and a proportional vote where the direct election is happening in enlarged districts with a greater number of seats. I do not hear this worry from Mongolian contacts so much and they may share my confidence in the General Election Commission on voter education. Every parliamentary election since 2008 has seen a different electoral system, yet when I have had the chance as an election observers to ask voters whether they are confident that they know how to vote, the answers have been almost universally positive.

 

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I have already seen several elements in the GEC voter education campaign around town as in the above. The GEC also set up a polling station simulation on Sukhbaatar Sq last week which struck me as a very innovative idea, though I do not know whether this was replicated around the country.

The greater concern may be around the time that voting will take. Given the size of the ballot (some voters will be voting for 10 seats in multi-member districts) there is some work to be done in the voting booth. Ballots will not be valid unless the voter casts the number of votes that correspond to the number of seats contested in that constituency. If the voter lives in a seven-seat constituency, they have to cast seven direct election votes for the ballot to be valid. Apparently, voters get one re-do if they have not filled out the ballot accordingly and that will slow the process down even more. While it would be possible to add additional voting booths, the number of election machines that the ballot is deposited in is limited, so that lines may well form to insert the ballot which could create a bit of a traffic jam in actually casting the ballot. Note that the forced choice for all the available seats may lead to a greater number of spoiled ballots as voters might resent this. All of this may then lead to significant delays at polling stations which might turn some voters off from voting all-together.

I can only speculate that this might lead some to vote straight party slates to facilitate the voting, while others might deliberately mix their choices (3 candidates from one party 4 from another, etc.). I do not think that observers or party strategists have much of a chance to model voting strategies around this question so that we will not know from the results what voters might have chosen to do.

DP

There is a sense that the DP has botched its candidate nomination process. Not only was the process itself bumpy, but there is little excitement about the candidates nominated to the party lists. There are just too few new or young faces to generate excitement, or so goes the widely-held perception. If that perception remains and is indeed widely held, the DP might not benefit as much from the desire for a chance in government that some voters might hold.

MPP

By contrast, many people seem quite impressed by how the MPP has handled the party list. This might be partly just their attempt to sell the party list, but many contacts of mine agree that they knew hardly anyone at the top of the party list, thus giving off a strong sense of new and fresh candidates.

Campaigning: TV

A number of contacts mentioned how much they were enjoying the candidate debates on TenGer TV. A sense that candidates actually had a chance to talk about substance and to show themselves to voters. Note, however, that the views on YouTube are in the low thousands, so perhaps the impact remains limited.

Campaigning: Poster Boards

Here is something that definitely is new: centralized poster boards with assigned spots for candidates. This has been common in Japan for a long time where I have seen it during many elections, perhaps this exists elsewhere. I was a bit surprised today that the poster board I saw was tucked away on the inside of a residential block, not an area that is likely to see much foot traffic and it appears that there are only limited numbers of these boards.

New #Mongolia campaign style: public poster boards with assigned fields for candidates.
#Сонгууль #Сонгууль2024 #MGLpoli

[image or embed]

— Mongolia Focus (@mongoliafocus.bsky.social) Jun 13, 2024 at 10:03 PM

Other than the scant poster boards, campaigning in the urban core of Ulaanbaatar has been quiet, maybe even subdued.

Speculation

Among those who are interested in this election, there seems to be a popular game of trying to predict likely results. Given the absence of public polls, this really is a guessing game more than a prediction. But for the 48 seats that will be distributed by proportional representation, this guessing can be broken down into the number of votes a party might need relative to the number it may have gotten in the past. Divide the roughly 1.5m voters that are an easy-to-calculate guess at voter participation by 48 (seats), and you have a sense of how many votes may be needed to win a seat for a party, presuming that the minimum threshold will be met. The number of votes for parties that will not have met that minimum will change that number of votes for those parties winning seats, but this is still a rough guideline. Based on all of that, I’ve got some guesses in my mind, do you?

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Guest Post: Political Parties’ Election Platforms on Higher Education

Posted on June 12, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Orkhon Gantogtokh

This review focuses on how 19 political parties and 2 coalitions that submitted their election platforms reflect higher education (university level education) in their platforms, based on comparisons available at iKON and iToim. The analysis includes how many objectives each party has on higher education extracted from their platforms in iToim, the areas of higher education they cover, and the specificity of their objectives. Here, I summarize the main actions of the five parties with the most objectives in higher education, followed by an overall summary of the remaining parties’ objectives.

Democratic Party

The Democratic Party (DP) stands out with its specific section on higher education, having the highest number of objectives (21 objectives) related to higher education. For comparison, the Mongolian People’s Party, Citizen Will Party, and United Party of Patriots each have 6 objectives, the National Labour Party has 5 objectives, and other parties have fewer than 4 objectives in higher education.

The Democratic Party places significant emphasis on research capacity building in alignment with the country’s socio-economic development to strengthen the knowledge society. Specific objectives include increasing research funding to 1% of GDP from the current rate of 0.1%, recognizing research as a public good, establishing a matching fund to strengthen university-industry research partnerships, increasing funding for interdisciplinary research addressing socio-economic problems, investing in research faculty, and improving research management. They also focus on faculty development, attracting diaspora academics to work in Mongolian universities, providing scholarships to faculty members to study for PhDs abroad, and improving their English skills to retain talented scholars in public universities. They prioritize the autonomy of public universities through specific changes in higher education law, increasing the number of external members on university governing boards, and making professional associations like the Quality Assurance Agency more autonomous. They aim to establish a campus for regional higher education and increase the number of scholarship recipients studying abroad. The Democratic Party’s objectives are specific and cover the widest range of higher education areas, including university governance, autonomy, academic freedom, research management and funding, university and industry partnerships, student fees, scholarships, faculty development, life-long learning through micro-credentials, quality assurance, campus development, and alignment of academic programs with practicum opportunities.

Mongolian People’s Party

The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) has 6 objectives directly related to higher education. Their objectives include general statements about improving the link between university and industry through research, increasing research funding, and establishing an ecosystem of research. They have a specific objective of supporting two universities in reaching the global top 1000 in university rankings. They also support regional higher education to meet labor market needs, attract diaspora academics, support teacher education colleges, and aim to increase student scholarships through a transparent system. While their objectives are fewer and more general compared to the opposition party, they include ambitious goals, such as improving Mongolian university’s rankings in the global standing, but do not specify how.

Civil Will-Green Party and United Party of Patriots

These two parties have relatively numerous objectives (6 each) in higher education among the parties not represented in the current parliament. The United Party of Patriots aims to elevate higher education to a global level, improve university human resources through merit-based recruitment, allow global and Asian top universities to open branches in Mongolia, elevate the status of science and research through better funding and recognition, support university-industry partnerships through state recognition, and provide scholarships for talented first and second-year students to study abroad. The Civil Will-Green Party emphasizes research, labor market alignment of academic programs, and education funding systems, and stands out with its focus on increasing part-time work opportunities for students.

KhUN

The KhUN (National Labour) Party has surprisingly few objectives, considering many of its members are from academia. However, some of their objectives are different and specific. They aim to develop universities as innovation-based institutions, foster university-industry partnerships, improve university governance through greater autonomy, align academic policies with labor market needs, and instill market principles in higher education by decreasing the number of poor-quality universities through stricter criteria, including higher university entrance scores. They also emphasize flexible pathways to higher education, a shorter period of studies through accepting high school credits and supporting the link between secondary schools and universities through career development programs.

Other Parties

The parties that have 3 objectives related to higher education include the New United Coalition, Mongolian Liberal Democratic Party, Motherland Party, Social Democratic Party, and United Party of Good Democrats. The National Coalition and Power of the Masses Party have 2 objectives. The Republican Party, the Party For Mongolian Humanity, the Truth and Justice Party, Masses’ Majority Governance Party, and Civic Unity Party each have one objective. The majority of these parties have similar general objectives, emphasizing research universities, alignment of academic programs with labor market needs, quality assurance of higher education, and research funding systems. The Freedom Implementation Party, Civil Movement Party, and Freedom Alliance Party do not have specific objectives directly related to higher education.

To summarize, it is commendable to see that the majority of parties’ election platforms emphasize improving university governance through granting autonomy, supporting research at universities through better funding, fostering university-industry partnerships, enhancing faculty development through better human resource management, and aligning academic programs with labor market needs. Many of them emphasize increasing scholarships to study abroad through a more transparent funding system, which may be related to the recent scandal associated with foreign study scholarships. Several parties also aim to improve regional higher education, quality assurance mechanisms, flexible pathways, and funding and fees for students. In their overall education-related objectives, most parties seem to focus more on basic and secondary education, whereas the Democratic Party provides a more balanced approach across all levels of education with a comprehensive and specific focus on higher education in its platform.

About Orkhon

Orkhon Gantogtokh is a PhD candidate in Education Studies at the University of British Columbia. She has been actively engaged with the higher education reform processes of Mongolia with her civic engagement, research activities, and involvement in national-level projects. She has led the higher education sub-committee of the Education Reform Movement, an NGO established in 2019 to address the low quality of education in Mongolia. She completed an MSc in Higher Education at the University of Oxford in 2016. Her professional experience includes positions at the University of British Columbia as a Researcher and Academic Policy Assistant, Higher Education Reform Project as a HE Specialist, the London School of Economics Enterprise as a Researcher, Mongolian National Council for Education Accreditation as a Research and Partnership Manager, and NUM and MUST as a Higher Education Consultant and Mongolian Academy for Higher Education Development as Executive Director.

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Constituency Competitiveness

Posted on June 10, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

With the men’s European Championship in football about to start, one might ask if any of the constituencies in the election are a “group of death” like Group D in the Euro where Austria, France, the Netherlands and Poland will be facing off.

For the direct election seats, constituencies will vary as to how fiercely competitive they may appear with some constituencies having more prominent and intuitively viable candidates nominated for the total number of available seats than other ridings.

Assuming that all constituencies will reach the prescribed minimum threshold of 50% voter turnout, election in these constituencies will be by simple ranking of the number of votes received. In a riding with three seats, for example, the top three vote-getters will be elected.

Two factors that might make candidates more or less competitive may be the prominence of candidates running in the riding, and the number of incumbents running.

Prominent Candidates

Prominence is obviously a subjective criterion in that it involves our judgement of a candidate’s visibility and name-recognition. As direct election implies a focus on the individual candidate, party affiliations may be less important in determining a candidate’s chances, especially since the party list vote offers voters the opportunity to express a more general preference for one party over another.

If prominence also implies that candidates have some sway with party organizations in terms of where they have been nominated, we assume that they’ve made some calculation of their electoral chances in a particular constituency. This is particularly interesting in cases like N Altankhuyag who had previously been elected in Erdenet but is now running in Songinokhairkhan or Kh Battulga who had been elected in Bayankhongor when he was an MP, but is now running in constituency 4.

We have listed some notable candidates in a previous post.

Incumbency

While we did not quantify the (incrementally greater) likelihood of election for incumbents in past elections, we are assuming that incumbents have some advantage in upcoming elections. That advantage is based on previous campaign experience and the opportunity of “shadow campaigning” ahead of the official campaign period as MPs. In a previous post we have offered some observation of incumbency in the current set of candidates.

If we take incumbency to be an advantage, we can look at different constituencies in terms of the proportion of incumbents running to available seats.

 

Constituency # of Incumbents/
# of Seats		 Standardized
# of Incumbents/
# of Seats		 # of Candidates/
#of Seats		 Standardized
# of Candidates/
# of Seats
1 5/9 56/100 9/80 11/100
2 7/10 70/100 10/115 9/100
3 2/3 67/100 3/23 13/100
4 6/8 75/100 8/86 9/100
5 6/10 60/100 10/119 8/100
6 4/7 57/100 7/76 9/100
7 5/7 71/100 7/78 9/100
8 1/5 20/100 5/83 6/100
9 2/3 67/100 3/50 6/100
10 2/6 33/100 6/90 7/100
11 2/5 40/100 5/85 6/100
12 0/3 0/100 3/49 6/100
13 1/2 50/100 2/32 6/100

The most incumbents relative to available seats are thus running in constituency 4, 7, 2, while constituencies 12, 8, 10 are the leasts competitive. Note that these three most competitive constituencies are outside of Ulaanbaatar while the least competitive are all Ulaanbaatar constituencies.

Update (June 13, 2024):
Thanks to Bulgan‘s efforts, I added the last two columns to the above table. Note that by looking at the measure of candidates/seats, the city constituencies are more competitive than the countryside, i.e. there are more candidates running for the number of seats contested. By this measure, Bayan-Ulgii (constituency #3) is the least competitive, while Songinokhairkhan (constituency #11) is the most competitive.

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Guest Post: In Search of New, Clean, and Young Candidates for Politics in Mongolia

Posted on June 7, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Munkh-Erdene G

For over a month, the reality show “Candidate-2024” was filmed, producing eight episodes to introduce new faces to Mongolia’s political landscape. As one of the 100 participants selected from more than 500 applicants, I was a complete newcomer to both politics and this type of TV show. Coming from an academic background as an anthropologist and not being affiliated with any political party, I found it fascinating to meet a diverse group of candidates, including party members, mid-level and local government officials, social media influencers, and especially young people under thirty.

Stages of the Competition: Knowledge Assessment

The first task of the show was a test based on the civil servant exam of the Mongolian government. It assessed basic knowledge of Mongolian history, culture, general laws, and common sense. Shockingly, 50 participants were eliminated at this stage, while the remaining half were allowed to continue to the next level of the show.

Stage 2: Political Parties

The second task involved establishing a new political party by five teams. It closely resembled the actual process of creating a political party, including developing a vision, agenda, political ideology, and even an action plan for the upcoming election. The judges were 100 voters randomly selected to represent different social groups in society who voted for only one party and one member of the parties. Along with the voters, three experts advised and commented on the five parties’ performances. Most of the parties’ political ideologies were social democratic, with only one party declaring its ideology as right-center. In their action plans for the upcoming election, the parties mainly focus on social welfare, improving justice in society and political life, and reducing corruption and poverty.

As a result, only one party was declared the winner, and ten participants were eliminated based on their performance as team members and in individual activities.

Stage 3: Social Engagement

For the third task, the remaining 40 candidates were divided into four teams to complete social engagement duties within 48 hours. Each team had to select a concerning social issue from a provided list and develop a solution. Three civil society experts judged the task. My team chose to renovate the library at School 59 in Ülziit village, Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar. The winning team’s solution was to install bidet toilet seats in maternity hospitals. The second team chose to install LED-lit crosswalks on two different roads in the east and west of Ulaanbaatar. The team that finished last attempted to renovate a well for clean water in one of the Ger districts and to build a bus station for the local community.

Stage 4: Campaigning

Only 30 candidates remained for the fourth mission, while the ten members from the last two teams in the previous task were eliminated from the show. At this stage, surprisingly, two new candidates joined the three teams formed by the TV show. The mission resembled election campaigns, where teams had to gather students over the weekend and introduce new amendments regarding the number of parliament members and the election system in the constitution. This time, my team won by gathering more students and introducing the new amendments more effectively than the other teams. However, the surprise was that the team with the lowest performance was completely eliminated.

Stage 5: Effective Policy-Making

The fifth task seemed a bit tricky for us. Initially, we were divided into teams, but the task focused more on individual performance in finding effective solutions within a short time frame. We assumed roles as different government officials, such as the chair of the digital transformation initiative, a member of the Mongolian Parliament, or the Minister of Mining, to address sector-related issues. The team discussed the issue together for an hour, but each candidate presented their solution individually in front of the four judges. Based on the candidates’ presentation skills, the judges eliminated four participants from the show.

Stage 6: Videos

The remaining fifteen candidates were teamed up to three and made a 90 second short video on representatives of different social groups for parliament. Within 48 hours, each team was divided two parts: one was a video making group and another to distribute the content on social media. Based on a number of views, share and comments, the winner will be released. The team that initially seemed to have won managed to gather more impressions on social media, but they did not adhere to the rules, leading the judges to deduct points from their score. Consequently, my team emerged as the winner. As a result, three other candidates were eliminated from the show.

Stage 7: Candidates’ Strengths

After several team challenges, the candidates were now able to showcase their personal strengths in the debate task. Despite the rule dividing the twelve candidates into four teams, each participant still had to assume a specific role within their respective team, making it resemble more of an individual task. Following two stages of debate, the professional judges announced the names of the four candidates eliminated, leaving only eight remaining for the show.

Stage 8: Role Playing

The final stage involved portraying the roles of the President and Prime Minister of Mongolia to deliver speeches to the parliament. Candidates underwent two training sessions to prepare and present their speeches. Some of the previously eliminated candidates became the audience this time, while the “eight Presidents and Prime Ministers” delivered their speeches in front of them. Based on the performances in the eight tasks, five finalists were selected and awarded prizes ranging from 20 to 100 million tugrugs. The winner was Lkhagvabayar, a 23-year-old secretary of the Social Democracy Student Union from the Mongolian People’s Party.

Observations

As a newcomer to politics, participating in the TV show was a long, challenging, and fascinating journey for me. Learning about grassroots politics within party institutions and various professional initiatives across different sectors was particularly intriguing. Despite legal limitations that confine election campaigns to two weeks, in reality, campaigning is a perpetual and ongoing process that never rests, becoming part of everyday life. After the show, I received several offers to become a candidate for the upcoming election or to work for political parties. However, none of them seemed appealing to me because of their political ideology and agendas.  Nonetheless, some candidates from the show transitioned into becoming “real candidates” for the election, with some even making it onto party lists. For example, the eighth-place runner, Yumjirmaa, holds the 34th place on the People’s Party list. Hurgul, a Kazakh woman, is a candidate from the Green Party in the Bayan-Olgii district, and Batbayar is running from the New United Coalition. Overall, the show effectively fulfilled its role in enhancing voter education and disseminating knowledge about the new amendments to the constitution.

About G Munkh-Erdene

Gantulga Munkh-Erdene is a PhD candidate in Geography at the School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford. Also he serves as the Executive Secretary of the Mongolian Anthropological Association. Prior to joining Oxford, he held the position of Senior Lecturer in the Department of Anthropology and Archaeology, National University of Mongolia.

His research interests encompass the social life of artisanal gold miners, known as ninja miners, as well as nationalism, cultural heritage, globalization, capitalism, development, and mining in Mongolia. Munkh-Erdene has conducted extensive fieldwork in several provinces of Mongolia and China. Based on his participant observation, he has published over 20 book chapters and articles at both the national and international levels.

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Notable Candidates

Posted on June 5, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes, Marissa J. Smith and Bulgan B

Below are some of the notable individual candidates running in the election. “Notable” in this context means individuals who are known to us to have played a prominent role in politics in the past or who are otherwise notable to us. That includes all current cabinet members, for example, but is not limited to them (even for the MPP). Obviously, this is a pretty loose criterion, but some of these individuals are worth pointing to in terms of party choices to nominate them at all and to nominate them for party lists vs. direct election seats.

MPP

  • D Amarbayasgalan, constituency 2. General Secretary of the MPP and current Cabinet Secretary.
  • S Amarsaikhan, constituency 13. “Mayor” (Governor) of UB.
  • B Bat-Erdene, constituency 4. Minister of Environment and Tourism.
  • J Bat-Erdene, constituency 4. Former Minister of Roads and Transportation.
  • E Batshugar, constituency 11. Son of former president N Enkhbayar.
  • B Battsetseg, constituency 2. Minister of Foreign Affairs.
  • D Bum-Ochir, party list place 15. He is an anthropologist who received his PhD from Cambridge. He has been Cultural and Religious Policy Advisor to Pres. Khurelsukh for the past three years.
  • S Byambatsogt, constituency 2. Minister of Roads and Transport.
  • G Damdinnyam, constituency 5. Past Mongolia Focus author.
  • S Chinzorig, constituency 1. Minister of Health.
  • Ts Davaasuren, constituency 4. Minister of Construction and Urban Development.
  • B Dulguun, party list place 25. Deputy Director of Mongolbank.
  • J Ganbaatar, constituency 9. Minister of Mining and Heavy Industry.
  • B Javkhlan, constituency 5. Minister of Finance.
  • Ch Khurelbaatar, constituency 2. Deputy PM and Minister of Economy and
  •  Development.
  • Ch Nomin, constituency 11. Minister of Culture. Daughter of director of Gatsuurt conglomerate.
  • L Oyun-Erdene, constituency 6. Prime Minister
  • R Regdel, party list place 5. former head of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences
  • G Saikhanbayar, constituency 1. Minister of Defense.
  • T Sainjargal, party list place 33. Deputy Director of Erdenes Mongol LLC [Tavan Tolgoi]
  • L Soronzonbold, constituency 6. Director of M Bank
  • D Tsogtbaatar, constituency 10. former Minister of Foreign Affairs
  • B Tsogtgerel, constituency 10, known as Шилэн/Glass Tsogoo for his investigations using glass/transparency account law.
  • N Uchral, constituency 10. Minister of Digital Development and Communications.
  • G Zandanshatar, constituency 1. Speaker of Parliament

DP

  • N Altankhuyag, constituency 11. Former Prime Minister of Mongolia, 2012-2014, and senior advisor to President Battulga, 2017-2019. In 2020-2024 Parliament, independent MP representing Erdenet/Orkhon Aimag (now in constituency 4)
  • R Amarjargal, party list 19. Former Prime Minister, 1999-2000, MP 2004-2016
  • M Amarjin, constituency 11, comedian and prominent protestor
  • O Baasankhuu, constituency 10, former MPRP leader
  • Kh Battulga, constituency 4. Former President of Mongolia, 2017-2021, and Minister of Roads and Transportation, 2008-2012
  • J Batzandan, constituency 4. Democratic Party MP, 2016-2020, founding member of Shine Esvel (political party/movement)
  • S Erdene, constituency 9. former head of Democratic Party, 2016-2023
  • S Ganbaatar, constituency 1, independent presidential candidate, 2017
  • L Gantumur, party list 1. head of Democratic Party
  • Ch Lodoisambuu, constituency 12, journalist (“Ulaan Bal”)
  • L Munkhbayasgalan, constituency 7, journalist (“Tsenzurgui Yaria”)
  • E Odbayar, party list 11. founding member and leader of Demos Party
  • Kh Temuujin, party list 9. Former Minister of Justice
  • M Tulgat, constituency 8, candidate for the head of DP during the 2021

KhUN

  • T Dorjhand, party list 1, Head of the KhUN, MP
  • B Naidalaa, party list 2, co-founder of the KhUN
  • G Javkhlantugs, party list 15. Director of Policy and Advocacy, American Chamber of Commerce in Mongolia

Other Parties

  • Ts Oyungerel, constituency 12. Former Minister of Culture, Tourism and Sports and DP MP
  • N Nomtoibayar, Former MPP, and founder of the National Coalition (*as of 6/13, Nomtoibayar is not listed as a candidate according to ikon.mn)

So far, we have identified 25 candidates from MPP, 14 from DP, 3 from KhUN, and, two from Other parties. We will continue to reflect the lists as we continue to monitor the candidates.

Sources for this post include:

M. Khulan, [“From the current Parliament, 54 members are being nominated again”], Lemon Press, May 21, 2024, https://lemonpress.mn/post/xuri3V3GARh

Sanders, Alan J. K., Historical Dictionary of Mongolia, Fourth Edition, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2017.

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Incumbents

Posted on May 30, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes and Marissa J. Smith

Incumbency has been a big factor in past elections in Mongolia regardless of (changes to) the electoral system.

Given the “choice” of nomination for direct election or the party list, what are incumbents doing this time?

In total (as of May 28, see our table of candidates), there are 49 incumbents running for re-election. That is just under two thirds (64%) of previous members.

For the MPP, 36 incumbents are running. All are running for direct election seats, none have been nominated via the party list.

For the DP, 12 incumbents are running. That includes N Altankhuyag who had previously been elected as an independent but is now running for the DP, though he is a candidate in Songinokhairkhan, not in Erdenet (now in constituency #4, including Orkhon, Bulgan and Khuvsgul aimags) where he was elected in 2020. 10 are running for direct election seats, while 2 have been nominated via the party list, S Odontuya (2nd on party list) and J Batsuuri (3rd).

The lone MP for KhUN, T Dorjkhand, heads up the party list.

Observations

Regardless of their election result in 2020, incumbents have thus broadly been chosen to run in direct election races.

Besides N Altankhuyag, only two other incumbents are also changing constituency: P Anujin (moving from Songinokhairkhan district of UB to constituency #6 – Dornod, Khentii, Sukhbaatar), S Ganbaatar (also from Erdenet/Orkhon to #1 – Arkhangai, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor). Two of the three moving onto the list from directly-elected seats are doing so from districts of UB (Dorjkhand from Khan-Uul and Odontuya from Bayangol).

Not only are most of the incumbents running in the same geographic areas where they were before, several do or have held the position of local governor – Amarsaikhan for Ulaanbaatar, Batlut for Orkhon, Sandag-Ochir for Baganuur, Enkhtuvshin for Dornogovi, Odontuya for Bayangol district of UB, Naranbaatar for Umnugovi, Batjargal for Tuv, Ganbold for Uvurkhangai. (Batsuuri was also formerly governor of Sukhbaatar aimag, but he is moving onto the party list.)

Take-Aways

The fact that so many incumbents are running not only for election in particular constituencies, and in ones in which they have established local presence, fits with a long-time trend contributing to the MPP’s staying power, at least beyond Ulaanbaatar. (See Marissa’s peer-reviewed journal article on this topic here).

For the Ulaanbaatar vote, however, there may be greater contest. In the wake of the “big three” parties announcing their lists of candidates through the media, a prominent thread of comment that emerged on social media called the composition of the MPP party list a “trap”, or in a more extreme case observed, “make-up.” In this line of reasoning, the MPP list “distracts” with new, non-Party career candidates, while the incumbents occupy directly-elected spots. The presentation of young, well-educated, professional candidates also strongly characterized KhUN’s “Right Person” campaign in the last election, and that former DP MP and minister Ts. Oyungerel’s CUP is carrying out on social media presently.

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Women Candidates 2024 Election

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes, Bulgan B and Marissa J. Smith

Thanks to Marissa Smith‘s initiative, we’re building a table of candidates running in the June 28 parliamentary election. One of the characteristics we included in the table right away is gender.

Women via Proportional Representation

As we explained in our primer on the election system, 30% of all candidates must be women, and the party lists follow a “zipper system” with alternating male and female candidates. That raises the question whether this decision about the electoral system is likely to increase the number of women MPs in the parliament, as is intended.

Given the 48 seats that will be elected through proportional representation, that in itself will mean around half of the candidates elected via the party list will be women. “Around half” because all three major parties (MPP, DP, KhUN) for whom we’ve collected information so far have a man in their first party list position, so there could be a scenario where not exactly half of the proportional seats are filled by women. Even then, that implies a minimum of 22 women elected via proportional representation which would surpass the current absolute number of 13 in the 2020-24 parliament.

Percentage-wise that would be a bit less clear, of course, since the parliament is expanding from 76 to 126 seats. If no women are elected via direct election (obviously an unlikely scenario), the 24 women that are likely to be elected via the proportional vote would make up would make up 19% of MPs. That would be more than the current 17%, but obviously not a distribution that would reflect the population especially given the high proportion of women in post-secondary education with most of MPs having attended university of some kind. Note also that 19% would not return to the levels seen in socialist parliaments that were in the low 20%, though obviously given the lack of a competitive election for those seats, that is a skewed comparison.

Women via Direct Election

At this point, it’s obviously very hard to predict how many women might be elected via direct seats. As far as we’ve been able to determine (we’ll keep checking, revising and adding to the table over coming weeks) the female incumbents running in this election will be:

  • B Bayarsaikhan (MPP)
  • D Unurbolog (MPP)
  • Ch Undram (MPP)
  • P Anujin (MPP)
  • B Saranchimeg (MPP)
  • G Munkhtsetseg (MPP)
  • S Odontuya (DP)
  • A Adiyasuren (DP)

Given that incumbency has been a big advantage in past elections, it would seem like a fair assumption that a number equal to the female incumbents would be elected again, though that is very speculative.

If the number of women who succeed in direct elections were roughly the same as the number of incumbents running that would mean 8 additional female MPs.

With the 24 female MPs likely to be elected via the party lists, that would lead to 32 or so women which would be just over a quarter of the new 2024-2028 Parliament.

There are a number of prominent women running for direct election who are not incumbents, of course (for example, Foreign Minister B Battsetseg and Minister of Culture and Tourism Ch. Nomin), so if the incumbents are successful in their re-election bids and additional women are elected, that proportion could rise further.

We are also watching for Ts. Oyungerel and her new third party, the Civic Unity Party (CUP), to announce their party lists and candidates for directly-elected seats. While they have been active on social media and have released materials such as this video on Facebook and X, the CUP have not released a list as the “big three” parties have at this time. (Update: The CUP list is available here. Ts. Oyungerel has registered, and the list is predominantly female, including 35 women and 24 men.)

One of the interesting questions that will arise for the next parliament will be the perception of (the relative power of) directly elected MPs vs their colleagues who will have been elected via party lists. Julian previously speculated about this and gender may also play into that perception.

As a final caveat, we also note again that these candidate lists are lists of the names of those individuals whom parties are submitting for registration. All candidates still must be cleared by the General Election Committee and candidates will not receive their official candidate card and official go-ahead to start campaigning until next month.

Women Parliamentarians, Mathematical Representation and Outlook

The above parameters lead us to consider the following likely results in terms of women’s representation among MPs. Let’s use simple math to predict the number of women in the parliament for the 2024-2028 term. The proportional seats of 48 secure 17-19% of female parliamentarians, depending on whether we get 22 or 24 women. Only 14 (out of 78) candidates are women in the MPP and DP candidates in the 13 constituencies. The KhUN party has the highest number of women nominated in direct representation, at 34.  In the proportional system, the KhUN Party has nominated 24 out of 48 seats for women, while the MPP and DP have nominated 23 women each.  With these numbers added, MPP and DP just met the 30% quota with 38 women candidates according to the amendment (see all the changes to the election legislation here). KhUN party has the highest number of women at 57, or 45% of women.

If we focus on possibilities rather than probabilities, we can propose three distinct scenarios for the representation of women in parliament. These would give us about 25-30% of women’s representation in the parliament, the possibility of almost double the existing number or a slight increase.

Type of Representation Number of Seats Scenario: Stagnant Parity Scenario: Modest Progress Scenario: Modest Setback
Proportional 48 22-24
(Based on zipper system, max # of women is 24, min is 22)		 24
(maximum number of women)		 22
(minimum number of women)
Direct 78 11-13
(Based on previous two elections of 15-17% of elected MPs are women)		 14
(19%, increment of 2% based on last two elections)		 10
(13%, decrement of 2% from maintained)
Total 126 33-37
(This represents 26-29% of  elected MPs are women)		 38
(30% of the parliament)		 32
(25% of the parliament)

Given the number of women nominated by both parties from direct representation, it will be difficult to have up to 11-13 women, meaning at least one woman from each constituency. However, if we look at the superficial calculation, we see that many factors play into the election.  Anyway, we will continue to analyze the situation further.

* Edit, 5/30/24: Female incumbents also include Kh. Bulgantuya (MPP)

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Table of Candidates, Parliamentary Elections 2024

Posted on May 22, 2024 by Marissa Smith

By Marissa J. Smith

I’ve put together an Airtable of candidates, available at this link:
https://airtable.com/app4qRxMRvaDmDLsg/shrJ1RxjGJL3QeSWz

(Click here to see detailed changelog)

7/6/13: Most parties removed from spreadsheet to meet account type requirements, added four Civil Will-Green Party party list members (these were not in the spreadsheet earlier as this party’s party list was not available). ALL ELECTED CANDIDATES included and indicated.

6/12/24 – 6/13/24: The table has been updated based on the elections coverage platform at ikon.mn. Changes here:

Democratic Party
#24 – N. Javzanpagma -> N. Baigalmaa
#28 – I. Narantuya -> E. Badamgarav
#29 – D. Amartuvshin -> Ts. Tserentogtokh
#38 – L. Otgontsetseg -> T. Tsatsral
#39 D. Altangerel -> B. Munkhgerel
#43 S. Yumenkhuu to #48
Toirog #5 – Darkhan, Selenge, Tuv
S. Bayartsogt replaced by L. Odbayar
Toirog #9 – Bayangol
B. Battulga replaced by Ts. Tavanchuluu

KhUN
#29 U. Unenkhuu removed [not replaced, party list now has only 47 candidates]
Toirog #2 – Govi-Altai, Zavkhan, Khovd, Uvs
S. Byambaasuren replaced by M. Byambadorj

Civic Unity Party
Toirog #1 – Arkhangai, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor
D. Bas-Orgil Removed

National Coalition
#1 Nomtoibayar removed
#6 N. Khulan removed
#13 D. Enkhbat -> D. Bekhbat
Toirog #1 – Arkhangai, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor
D. Odontuya -> D. Odontungalag
Toirog #10 – Sukhbaatar, Chingeltei
L. Bayarkhuu removed
D. Ganbold removed

Mongolian Conservative Party
Toirog #4 – Bulgan, Khuvsgul, Orkhon
T. Erdenetsetseg added

5/31/24: We’ve added candidates for Oyungerel’s Civic Unity Party and the National Coalition and will continue to add other candidate listings as they are announced by parties and as we have time to input them.
5/22/24: For now, this is based on information from three parties (MPP, DP, and KhUN) and the media; these candidates have NOT obtained their final candidate cards, i.e. their candidacy is still being reviewed by the General Election Commission.

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Balance of Power in Expanded Parliament

Posted on May 6, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

The 2019 constitutional amendments were partly aimed at shifting the balance of power toward parliament and cabinet, away from the presidency. For example, the prohibition on the double deel was intended to strengthen the prime minister by offering them a bit more independence from parliament. Conversely, powers to create parliamentary committees were meant to strengthen parliament’s ability.

For some of these amendments, we won’t know whether they might have had the desired effect as they have been overturned already last year, i.e. the double deel prohibition. An MPP prime minister coexisting with an MPP president – despite the regular discussions of divisions and rivalry between them – during an MPP supermajority is probably also not the time to really put the desired shift of power to a test. That is not because the MPP can railroad any changes through, but because of the ongoing fragmentation of power and some of the surprising challenges in governing with a supermajority.

What will parliamentary vs cabinet power look like in the next UIX?

The expansion in the number of seats seems likely to shift the balance of power in parliament. The split between 78 majoritarian districts and 48 proportional representation seats suggests that the status of these “different” MPs might differ and their role in potential cabinets and in legislative activities with that.

Abstract arguments about the relative power of directly-elected and party-list MPs are easy to construct. On the one hand, directly elected MPs have a constituency that serves as the basis of their power and they can potentially turn to that constituency in justifying decisions that might even counter party positions. While they are beholden to the party (leadership), on the other hand, MPs elected by a national list might point to their relative national prominence and the importance of political parties in justifying their decisions.

Early discussions ahead of the next election suggestion that the former rationale might play a more significant role. But the nomination of candidates in coming weeks will also offer some indication. I have previously speculated about some of the decisions in nominations. If many prominent incumbents are nominated in their (expanded) electoral districts, we might conclude that they see more of a logic that points to the power rooted in a direct electorate, but if any incumbents or prominent new candidates choose the party lists, that might suggest that national prominence and a national constituency might also serve as a perceived power basis. That logic would primarily hold for the MPP, of course, perhaps also for the DP which is likely to nominate a full slate of 126 candidates as well, though conclusions regarding the DP would be less drawn from incumbency, more prominence, given the small number of incumbents.

By contrast, one might suspect that prominent KhUN candidates might prefer to be nominated for high spots on the part list where their chance to be elected via proportional representation might be significantly higher. They might therefore see their opposition mandate as being more of a national mandate, rather than being rooted in a specific constituency.

It does not seem like there is any more inherent power in directly elected seats compared to those elected from a party lists. In practice, newly introduced proportional representation seats might seem to be diminished by comparison, but decisions by incumbents and parties in this and future elections could easily shift that perception.

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Guest Post: Will the parties consider what the electorate wants to see on the ballots? There is a TV show for that. 

Posted on April 22, 2024 by Julian Dierkes

By E Lkhagva

As far as I can remember I don’t think there has been election coverage in Mongolian democratic history where the public felt there has been enough debates between candidates, real  interviews or fair coverage in general.

When you think about how local media cover general elections one can point to the lack of debates, badly organized interviews or over-produced glossy candidate profiles which leave the electorate disengaged wondering how misrepresented they are in the Ikh Khural. Add social media trolls and known influencers and artists openly endorsing the Prime Minister an act netizens of Mongolia are calling “Хиамчин, Хиамрах” ham or to act of hamming this year’s election would be tough for the average voter to make sense or to make an informed decision. The role of the media in elections has been an aspect that has been identified repeatedly by OSCE Election Observation Missions.

This is especially true for younger voters. There have been efforts to engage them to come out in the past namely the Ugloo campaign. A large poll of 11,000 respondents by MMCG this spring shows Mongolians would like to see someone “new, young and clean”. This is true for previous polls done by Sant Maral Polit barometers and IRI youth perception survey. But are the parties listening? Will they send fresh new faces to the 13 electoral districts this year or will they prefer more established candidates whom the constituencies’ awareness level is higher. Many are claiming that the party list would be a welcome addition to include younger and female politicians to access the legislative arena. However, the party list has yet to be finalized as the parties scramble to align their platforms to get the seal of approval from the National Audit Office. And, even if female, younger and/or new candidates are nominated by the MPP and DP, if they are nominated for lower spots on the party list or in more competitive electoral districts, their chances may be very unclear. KHUN’s ability to have representatives elected via a party list and proportional representation also remains untested.

Rules of the game. No country for new candidates.

This year the rules of the game have changed. Again. Districts are larger. The campaign period is shorter. Parties will need to present a 48 person list for the proportional vote and 78 candidates to be nominated in the electoral districts. The local elections in October remain the same districts as 2020.

New Coverage

Returning back to journalism after 5 years in the ripe election season, my editorial and production team at MongolTV decided to put together a political reality show to demonstrate how the political process unfolds and to introduce new, young and clean candidates to the public and ultimately to provide a national platform for them to share their stories. We are offering half a billion tugriks for the winner to devote to their cause.  This is not an original idea. In 2015 UBS television has produced a  “Улс төрд шинэ манлайлагч” which introduced many DP, MPP and even business and civil society leaders at the time. The 8 episodes of political reality format will be profiling 100 out of 520 applications we received from a diverse backgrounds all around Mongolia  and the hopeful future candidates will need to complete 8 tasks for their chance to be recognized nationally and to earn 500 million tugriks.

The production team has put in efforts to balance the representation in terms of gender, social minority groups and political parties and walking a tight rope to stay within the legislative red lines on not showing party affiliation of candidates to be within the guidelines of the new election law.

Whether we succeed in producing a show which elevates voter education, demonstrate that young, new politicians are in fact capable of making tough decisions, and offer solutions to national and local issues will be for you to judge from April 26th Saturday evening. We hope the show achieve its goal to nudge parties to consider more representative candidates to their lists and drive political discourse on the subjects that matter for this election cycle.

About E Lkhagva

Lkhagva is a journalist, Editor-in-Chief of MongolTV based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. He holds a Master of Journalism degree from Journalism and Media Study Centre of the University of Hong-Kong and currently serves as a Board Member for Independent Fund for Media Self-Regulation.

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Posted in Democratic Party, Ikh Khural 2024, KhUN, Lkhagva Erdene, Media and Press, Mongolian People's Party, Party Politics, Politics, Younger Mongolians | Leave a comment

Parliamentary Elections 2024: Note on Third Parties, #1

Posted on April 19, 2024 by Marissa Smith

by Marissa J. Smith

While we wait for the State Audit Office to review and approve party platforms (I will be looking for them to appear on the General Election Commission’s website around April 26), I have prepared some observations about third party participation/applications to participate so far.

Interestingly, of the parties that went through the process to participate in the 2020 elections, all but four (Mongolian Green Party, Mongolian Traditionally United Party, Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party, Love the People Party) have submitted platforms to the Audit Office. The Mongolian Traditionally United Party is listed as a member of the United New Coalition, which is one of two coalitions that submitted platforms this year. This party and the Green Party were still listed as official political parties on the Supreme Court website in February.

There are also six parties that submitted platforms for this year’s election that did not participate in the 2020 elections.

The table below shows parties with platforms currently under review by the State Audit Office and parties that participated in the previous (2020) Parliamentary Elections (see Mongolia Focus post here). Links to live and active Facebook pages are included (though comment on social media and elections more broadly is beyond the scope of the current post). Only four parties appear to have live websites with recent (2024) activity: the Mongolian People’s Party, “Shine” New Unified Coalition, United Party of Civil Participation, and the Freedom Alliance (FKA Demos). (The Democratic Party does not have an active website that I have been able to locate and the website listed in their official registration is not accessible).

(English Translation) Parties/Coalitions That Submitted Platforms to State Audit Office (2024) Parties Cleared by Audit Office to Participate in Elections (2020)
Civil Movement Party Иргэний хөдөлгөөний нам
Civil Will-Green Party Иргэний зориг ногоон нам
Иргэний зориг ногоон нам
Democracy Renewal Party Ардчилал шинэчлэлийн нам
Ардчилал шинэчлэлийн нам
Democratic Party Ардчилсан нам Ардчилсан нам
Development Program Party Хөгжлийн хөтөлбөр нам
Хөгжлийн хөтөлбөр нам
Freedom Alliance Party Эрх чөлөөний эвсэл нам/Зон олны нам
Эрх чөлөөний эвсэл нам /Зон олны нам/ [aka Demos – Mongolia Focus post here]
Freedom Implementation Party Эрх чөлөөг хэрэгжүүлэгч нам
Эрх чөлөөг хэрэгжүүлэгч нам
Ger District Development Party Гэр хороолол хөгжлийн нам
Гэр хороолол хөгжлийн нам (see Mongolia Focus post)
Great Unity Party Их Эв нам Их Эв нам
Republican Party Бүгд найрамдах нам
Бүгд найрамдах нам
Justice Party Зүй ёс нам Зүй ёс нам (see Mongolia Focus post)
KhUN Party ХҮН нам ХҮН нам (see Mongolia Focus post)
Masses’ Majority Governance Party Ард түмний Олонхийн Засаглал нам
Ард түмний Олонхийн Засаглал нам /АТОЗ/ (Mongolia Focus post here)
Mongolian Conservative Party Монгол Консерватив нам
Монгол Консерватив нам
Mongolian Liberal Democratic Party Монголын либериал ардчилсан нам
Mongolian Liberal Party Монголын либериал нам
Mongolian People’s Party Монгол Ардын нам
Монгол Ардын нам
Mongolian Renewal Party Монгол Шинэчлэлт нам
Motherland Party Эх орон нам Эх орон нам
National Coalition Үндэсний эвсэл Үндэсний эвсэл
New Unified Coalition (New Party and Mongolian Traditionally United Party Coalition) Шинэ нэгдсэн эвсэл/Шинэ нам, Монголын Уламжлалын нэгдсэн нам эвсэл
Шинэ нэгдсэн эвсэл /Шинэ нам, Монголын Уламжлалын нэгдсэн нам эвсэл/
Party for Mongolian Humanity Монголын хүний төлөө нам
Монголын хүний төлөө нам
Power of the Masses Party Ард түмний хүч нам
Ард түмний хүч нам
Social Democratic Party Социал демократ нам
Социал демократ нам
Truth and Justice Party Үнэн ба зөв нам
Үнэн ба зөв нам
Civic Unity Party Иргэдийн оролцооны нэгдэл нам
United Party of Good Democrats Сайн ардчилсан иргэдийн нэгдсэн нам
United Patriot’s Party Эх орончдын нэгдсэн нам
Эх орончдын нэгдсэн нам
World Mongolian’s Party Дэлхийн монголчууд нам
Дэлхийн монголчууд нам

Here is a list of parties registered with the Supreme Court of Mongolia that are not listed among the parties having submitted platforms to the Audit Office:

Монголын Ногоон нам
Монголын Уламжлалын Нэгдсэн нам
Монголын эмэгтэйчүүдийн үндэсний нэгдсэн нам
Ардтүмний нам
Монголын Ардчилсан Хөдөлгөөний Нам
Хамуг Монголын Хөдөлмөрийн нам
Тусгаар тогтнол, эв нэгдлийн нам
Миний Монгол нам

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Posted in Civil Society, Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2024, KhUN, Mongolian People's Party, Party Politics, Politics | Tagged | Leave a comment