Travelling Campaigns

Posted on June 15, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

This is the sixth national election campaign that I’m watching on the ground in Mongolia.

I have a head full of visual memories, conversations with campaign workers, talks by candidates, and discussions with voters, that get shifted around and added to with each election.

Here are some descriptions of how the current campaign is unfolding.

Campaign Events

In different elections, I’ve been to roughly three different styles of events that candidates are involved in:

  • public rallies
  • discussions
  • walk-abouts.

Obviously, candidates in the presidential election are quite constrained by their schedule. 21 provinces + Ulaanbaatar, all that in 18 days of campaigning… That means that there are very few stops candidates can make and they have to strive to interact with a large number of voters at these stops to maximize impact. That means that the public rally is the dominant in-person form of campaigning in this election.

You can almost feel the exhaustion and triumph at having made it to 21 aimags by former MP Oyungerel Ts travelling with Kh Battulga.

Candidates typically travel by motorcade, despite the great distances across the country. Assuming that a candidate wants to spend some significant time in Ulaanbaatar because of the concentration of votes here, including the chance to “catch” some voters before they move to the country for the summer where they may be registered, that leaves roughly 1.5 aimags to be visited per day.

Candidates obviously have the opportunity to stop at soums that are located on the big cross-country roads to appear in some smaller communities in addition to the aimag centres.

They may also want to visit their family homes, in part to galvanize local support which is always important.

Ganbaatar in Tsetserleg

As a researcher it is difficult to “catch” the candidates at events.

  1. they travel fast
  2. they keep itineraries secret
  3. they change itineraries according to other candidates’ movements

By chance, on an Arkhangai trip, I was able to watch a campaign rally by the MPRP with S Ganbaatar and N Enkhbayar speaking. We had missed Enkhbold’s appearance in Tsetserleg the day before, and would miss Battulga on the next day due to our travel schedule.

The rally was held on the main square of Tsetserleg, in front of the aimag administration where campaign workers had been setting up the stage since some time in the morning.

It looked to us like the event was delayed in part by a desire to have a larger crowd, but other logistic schedules might have been at play as well. About 1h:15 Ganbaatar actually arrived.

After lengthy introductions and endorsements by some local celebrities, as well as an aged herder, and a young voter, Ganbaatar gave a fairly short speech. Like his campaign platform, it was a fairly high-level speech, i.e. about Mongolia, values, and how he is the option that is a true alternative to MANAS. He got some polite applause, but it was not a crowd that seemed like enthuses protest voters that were thrilled that their candidate had appeared to them.

Nevertheless, the crowd offered him a big cheer.

What followed felt like it was the main event, namely the arrival and speech by N Enkhbayar, former president, convicted money launderer and thus non-candidate, and famous son of Arkhangai. While also not a rousing orator, his somewhat soft voice seems to fit his role as perpetual victim of MANAS conspiracies, elder statesman, and focus point of the MPRP fairly well. He also spoke very briefly to loud cheers.

His speech was interrupted by a technical challenge when his microphone stopped worked. He used that opportunity to present Ganbaatar to the crowd in a visual endorsement that also matched the “trust us both” slogan of their campaign.

That scene also appears on their campaign bus.

My guess is that somewhere over 1,000 people attended. Tsetserleg has a population of just over 20,000. Most of the crowd seemed to be partisan supporters, many of them wearing the traffic-cone-orange scarves, t-shirts, and hats that the MPRP uses.

As with many MPRP events, there was a large crowd of older Mongolians, many of them adorned in deels that were decorated with various medals. They were accommodated with benches and umbrellas given the heat of the day and seemed to listen raptly. While the rally might have been timed to coincide with the close of business in nearby administrative and commercial buildings, it didn’t seem like the crowd grew by very much over the course of the rally.

To me, the most notable aspect of the rally was that Enkhbayar was the star of the show, not Ganbaatar. That may have been in part due to his popularity as a local son who became president, but it may also reflect the structure of the MPRP and the choice of Ganbaatar as a candidate who had not been affiliated with the party before.

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Short Analysis of A Short Platform

Posted on June 14, 2017 by bulgan batdorj

By Bulgan B

In general, S Ganbaatar’s election platform is short (6 pages only) and written in simple language. It addresses “Mongolians” as the victims of unruly politicians and political parties and calls for action to set social justice and improve accountability to bring employment, income and eradicate poverty.

The change theory that the platform proposes is 1. getting accountable government so 2. the social justice could be restored, and this could bring 3. employment and income to everyone and 4. eradicate poverty. The change agent described in his platform is the public (“Mongolians”, “a Mongolian”, and “citizens” were the most frequently used words), calling them for action to change, declaring their rights to the ownership of natural resources and better treatment by the government.

The tone in the platform appeals to “nationalist” sentiment. In addition to attending to the entitlements of Mongolians, the 9-part document separately speaks of true Mongolian, having pride in being born Mongolian, improving the worth (value) of Mongolian and owning the natural resources.

Summary on Key Issues

Below is the summary of the platform stance on some issues identified by the writers of this blog.

On social issues: Mr. Ganbaatar signifies unemployment and poverty caused by the loss of justice in the society. The issues of healthcare, education and migration (Mongolian youth working abroad) were briefly mentioned as side effects of unemployment and loss of accountability (justice system).  In addition, the perspectives of history, current condition and future vision were anchored in the identity of Mongolian.

On nationalism and mining: The nationalist stance is very strong in the platform.  Mr. Ganbaatar is named as the “King of Populism” in political discussions and media. He certainly owns the “common Mongolian” role and has a strong stance on the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, demanding more of a share for Mongolians. Although he is criticized by many, he rates very high in the public, which could be one of the reason that MPRP is running him as their candidate.  In other words, the platform does not have references to mining.

On foreign policy: The platform is centered on domestic governance (accountability) and does not mention foreign policy. On the other hand, his statements about Mongolians owning the natural resources could translate into more emphasis on ownership of natural resources deposits by the state which could have negative impact on foreign investment (thus could translate into weakened foreign relations).

On judiciary: There is a sentence demanding fairness in legal and judiciary organizations and another charging the public officials holding the name of the government and having access to resources. He calls for a just system by prioritizing interests of the public.

On corruption: The only reference which may mean corruption is the mention of offshore account.

The Platform Overall

In summary, the platform does not substantially cover any policy issues in constructive manner. The narrowly defined social issues and actions to mend centers heavily on the what seem to be whatever people want to hear focusing on the emotion rather than intelligence.

To speculate, the platform does not seem to be created with the anticipation of winning the election. Although it is not possible to evaluate how much of resources dedicated in putting together the platform, it is sufficiently simplified thus could be speculated that it has not tapped into the two-term president, and the father of the party. From here, I also want to speculate that party strategy has more than obvious agenda – vote splitting. The conspiracy I dwell on is that Mr. Ganbaatar can share the nationalist votes with Kh. Battulga, DP candidate. The winner of the election would be the MPRP as its negotiation with its brother party MPP then would secure the party resources in the next term of presidency of MPP.

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My Biggest Question about the Election

Posted on June 14, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

Of course, it is interesting to speculate about the likelihood of one candidate or another winning the election. On that front, a week into the campaign, an Enkhbold victory still seems more likely, though a second round of voting is much more difficult to speculate about.

But, what I am looking more for in this election are signs that speak to the level of frustration that Mongolian voters feel with the two large parties and how they express that frustration.

As I reflect back on last year’s parliamentary election, the biggest news was perhaps not the size of the MPP victory (which was expected, though not on that scale), but rather the increase in the level of participation and the rejection of many populists.

Even in a desire economic situation – often a breeding ground for populism – Mongolian voters rejected many of the offers of simple solutions for complex problems (the hallmark of political populism), and instead voiced their frustration about the previous DP government by given strong support to the MPP.

In this election, many voters see many reasons to be frustrated with the choice the three candidates offer them.

Will they voice this frustration by staying home or by protesting this lack of choice either through blank/spoiled ballots or by backing Battulga or Ganbaatar as a protest vote?

I have discussed the impact of voter turnout on the result elsewhere.

But, I am trying to use my time in Mongolia during the campaign to learn from Mongolians how frustrated they are with politics (beyond the indications that polls offer on this topic).

I am hoping that I will continue to get a sense of how likely political mobilization outside of the structure of two large parties is in the future.

Last year’s election showed me that Mongolians remain dedicated to electoral democracy. I have discounted the likelihood of an authoritarian turn for some time. Instead, I think it will be increasingly likely that Mongolians will vent their frustration about politics through a protest movement focused on a specific issue, most likely corruption. We have seen a number of eruptions of protests on this topic in the past, but I will not be surprised if a future eruption then turns into a new political movement that demands real answers on corruption, or if a generational change in the large parties (overdue especially for the DP, but also needed in the MPP, I think) can hitch their cart in a genuine fashion to an anti-corruption or transparency cart and thus ride popular protest to real political change.

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Posted in Corruption, Democracy, Party Politics, Politics, Populism, Presidential 2017, Protest, Social Change, Social Issues, Social Movements | Tagged | Leave a comment

Trust in Mongolian Youth

Posted on June 14, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

I went to Arkhangai with my mother to show her a bit of the Mongolian countryside (and also give me a chance to learn more about the election campaign).

We had a wonderful time.

On our way back, we had some time to spare in Tsetserleg and visited the lovely provincial museum housed in a former monastery.

Tsetserleg, capital of #Arkhangai and sometimes-site of small wonders! #magicalmongolia

A post shared by Julian Dierkes (@jbdierkes) on

Unfortunately, my mother lost her wallet, most likely when she got in the car.

As you can imagine, panic ensued. Credit cards, id, various other documents, and a significant sum of Tugrik.

How to Search for a Wallet

We first checked back where we lost the wallet, no luck. Off to the police next.

All along, I am thinking that the wallet will somehow come back, perhaps conditioned by my years of life in Japan where lost items return almost inevitably.

The police were very helpful and friendly, suggesting a radio ad and loudspeaker announcements.

Off to the radio station, then the market, where we were surprised to hear my mother’s name over the loudspeaker.

Five minutes after our bus for Ulaanbaatar would’ve left, we got a phone call from the museum that the wallet had been found. Ah, what a relief. We sped back to the museum and sure enough, there was the wallet.

Not surprisingly, the cash was gone, but other than one item that might well have slipped out when the cash was removed, all the credit cards, ids were still there.

And here was a very shy student from No. 1 Secondary School in Tsetserleg. He had found the wallet by the side of the road nearby and we were so grateful that he turned it in, saving us the massive hassle to cancel all cards, etc.

Faith in Mongolian humanity reinforced, thank you Tsetserleg parents and teachers for raising good kids who know what to do with a found wallet!

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Importance of Turnout

Posted on June 13, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

One of the big questions on election night (June 26) will be whether voters will turn up to vote.

In recent presidential elections, the turnout had been steadily declining (2005: 74.9%, 2009 73.5%, 2013 66.5%). That was also true of parliamentary elections until turnout last year suddenly jumped back up to 73.5%.

Since the electorate’s vote was one of frustration last year (with the DP, but also with (party) politics more generally, it is a bit too simple to say that such frustration drives turnout, because that should have made the number drop last year which it didn’t.

From the quiet beginning of the campaign (at least in Ulaanbaatar) in the first few days, there’s no strong sense that the electorate is energized, but that may change in the course of the campaign, perhaps through TV debates.

Implications of Turnout

But the implications of a high or low turnout are significant, I think. There is a good chance that a second round will be required in this election. That chance will be determined to some extent by turnout. Put simply, the lower the turnout, the greater Enkhbold’s chances to win election outright. Put a higher turnout will make a second round more likely.

Why is that?

I am assuming that the core MPP voters are committed to Enkhbold as their candidate. They emphasize his experience in virtual all high offices (Ulaanbaatar mayor, prime minister, party leader, UIX speaker) and see him as a candidate who will bring stability to Mongolian politics. Given the MPP’s strong organization, esp. in the countryside, they are likely to be able to deliver their core votes with a high turnout.

Core MPRP voters (let’s say around 7-8%, judging by last year’s parliamentary election (8%) and the 2013 presidential election (6.6%)) are likely to turn out for Ganbaatar as well. Any additional voters for Ganbaatar are likely to be protest voters (Ganbaatar as “last man standing” in politics, etc.) who may vote or not. This is the first factor where turnout will matter greatly and have an impact on the likelihood of a second round.

With Battulga things seem more complicated. It seems like former PM Amarjargal was actually able to generate a lot of support in the party as a potential candidate but – in the end – was not nominated, perhaps because of doubts about finances for the campaign. Battulga has always been a somewhat divisive figure in the party and as a faction leader can probably not count on the firm support of all core DP members. That reduces his likely result in a low-turnout election. But if turnout is high (implying that undecided voters and non-voters are showing up in some numbers) Battulga may attract a fair number of votes that are nervous about a complete MPP rout of all elections, and of populist protest votes.

It seems unlikely that turnout would drop below the required 50% nationwide. But if I am correct that turnout is also required to be above 50% in each polling station, there may be some chance that this won’t be reached. In that case, there will be a re-vote a week later, further delaying any official results and thus a (decision about a) second round.

It’s hard to pin low or high turnout to a number, but if turnout rises by some percentage points from 2013, a second round seems likely. If, on the other hand it drops further, Enkhbold’s chances at winning outright increase.

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Kh Battulga’s Election Platform

Posted on June 12, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

Translated by Students in Humboldt University Mongolian Politics Seminar

Below we’re offering a translation of Kh Battulga’s presidential campaign platform. We have already posted a translation of S Ganbaatar’s platform. But we’re still recruiting someone to translate MPP/M Enkhbold’s platform.

By providing an English translation, we want to make information available to non-Mongolian readers to allow them to get a sense of Kh Battulga (and the others) as a candidate. We have attempted to translate the platform to the best of our ability, but not to linguistic, rather to substantive standards.

If you have any comments on the translation, please do use the comment function below.

The translation was based on the version of the platform that appears on the GEC website.

A STRONGER MONGOLIA/ХҮЧИРХЭГ МОНГОЛ УЛС

I would be a patriotic/national president, who would build a prosperous ‘stronger Mongolia’, and who honours freedom, democracy, and justice, independent and sovereign Mongolia; where statehood is accounted for millennials and based on culture and history, tradition, modern accomplishments, and hope for bright future.

  • A patriotic President, who honors unity, and emphasizes national interest
  • A patriotic president, who protects freedom and just, and endorses the citizens
  • A patriotic president, who builds a prosperous economy, and develops industry
  • A patriotic president, who ensures ecological balance, and protects territory
  • A patriotic president, who launches a new era for export, and prefers balanced foreign relations

 1. President, who honours unity, and emphasizes national interest

  1. To defend fundamental rights of its people and country

To protect national interest with strong commitment by honoring Mongolian independence, sovereignty, territory integrity, inviolability of borders, democracy, freedom, human right, and justice.

  1. To accomplish national unity

As a Mongolian president who represents national unity, I will protect Mongolian statehood and will lead an undivided, developed and unified Mongolia against antagonism and partition.

  1. President, who protects freedom und just, and endorses citizens

2.1. Human rights and Justice

2.1.1. Everyone’s equality before the law will be guaranteed.
2.1.2. Public service workers will be appointed on professional merit.
2.1.3. Corrupted public servants, owners of offshore accounts will be punished.
2.1.4. Public service will become less bureaucratic. An online platform for public service will be established.
2.1.5. Governmental organizations, budget allocation, state property will be controlled by the president and the public.
2.1.6. Freedom of speech, expression, assembly and press will be guaranteed. Independent and transparent media will be established.
2.1.7. Judicial independence will be ensured. Judges will be selected not only on professional merits, but also on personal morality.

2.2. Education, Culture, Art and Science

An educated, healthy and employed Mongolian citizen is the source of the country’s development and economic growth.

2.2.1. [???]
2.2.2. Traditions, customs, heritage of mongols and nomadic civilization, arts of national value will be patronized and promoted.
2.2.3. Engraining morality, patriotism to children and youth. Improving the internet infrastructure so that everyone gets access to knowledge.
2.2.4. Boost Sciences, Technology and Innovations
2.2.5. Supporting Specialists and Professionals

2.3. Health Care

The health care of a Mongolian citizen will be the core of the governmental policy. The right of the citizens to live in a safe and healthful environment will be fortified. Special attention will be payed to the citizens’ physical health and its improvement.

2.3.1. Health Care and Medicine will be updated with newest technologies. A Mongolian citizen will be able to get diagnostics and treatments of highest level in his homeland.
2.3.2. In order to make medical care available to every citizen complex medical centers of international standards will be developed in regions.
2.3.3. Preventive care and services will get more financial support. With their insurance citizens will be able to swim in water sport centers.
2.3.4. Reduce diseases; support healthy lifestyle;
2.3.5. Develop the sports infrastructure by supporting national sports, sport medicine and athletes;

2.4. Public Service

An ethical and cultural sphere will be created, where a Mongolian public servant can formulate and implement policies and work creatively for a citizen-based society respecting the Mongolian governing tradition. The Military, Court and Police are seen as encouragers to obey the law and mainstay of the state’s independence. Therefore, rights of all public servants will be respected.

2.4.1. Public service will be professional, able and well-organized. Selection of public servants will base on their experience, talent and creativity.
2.4.2. Public servants will be provided with fair salary and working space for a stable, fast and efficient work.

2.5. Social security

Every citizen, who is in need of social security and assistance will be maintained and an environment for their social engagement will be created.

2.5.1. Appropriate maintenance to target groups will be provided. Obtain fair pensions;
2.5.2. Equal rights for public and social services for disabled citizen will be guaranteed. A special infrastructure will be established for them.

2.6. Families, senior citizens, females and children

A Family is a source unit of the existence of a nation. Therefore, a policy endorsing households will be implemented.

2.6.1. Promote the positive influence of family, family planning and its stability on social relations;
2.6.2. Create necessary conditions for mothers to give birth, raise their children; Keep mothers employed, support them economically and financially; Support large families with many children by accommodating them;
2.6.3. Support the children of single-headed households, low-income families, or disabled citizens; Guarantee them full educational service;
2.6.4. Support of low-income and single-headed households with children under 3 years old;
2.6.5. Enhance women’s leadership and involvement in decision making; Fight with domestic violence;
2.6.6. Guarantee and protect the rights of every single child;
2.6.7. Create optional employment opportunities for senior citizens;
2.6.8. Develop and support elderly care;
2.6.9. Encourage social and cultural leadership and creativity to youth;
2.6.10. Provide students with part time jobs; Job guarantee for graduates;
2.6.11. Support the „Soldier student“ program in order to engrain patriotism to youth;
2.6.12. Make the selection process of students who will study abroad fair and transparent; Double the number of bachelor, master and doctoral students who will study in developed countries;
2.6.13. Fight against youth smoking, alcohol consumption and drug use.

2.7. Support of herders and farmers

Special attention will be payed to social problems of herders, who carry the traditional nomadic culture, and farmers, who supply the people with products obtained from our homeland. Every effort will be made to increase their economic growth.

2.7.1. Increase the value of farm and livestock products; Improve the living conditions of farmers and herders;
2.7.2. Production and export of processed farm and livestock products.
2.7.3. Increase quality of livestock by introducing new technologies, creating new breeds, improving veterinary etc.
2.7.4. Encourage people living in border areas to involve in border guard services;

2.8. Decentralization, new cities, rural development

2.8.1. Develop tourism, production in rural areas;
2.8.2. Develop rural areas;
2.8.3. Rational allocation of administrative organizations; make public service accessible;
2.8.4. Add more green zones and build reservoirs in cities;
2.8.5. Guarantee security of the citizen;
2.8.6. Convert and develop ger districts; solve the air and soil pollution problems;
2.8.7. Develop sum centres.

  1. President, who makes the economy prosperous, and develops industry

To give importance to implementation of policies to restructure the economy and to make it more diversified, ensuring economic growth through innovation-based industrialization, and creating employment. To work with in accordance with ‘Mongolia Sustainable Development Vision – 2030’ approved by State Great Khural of Mongolia (19th Protocol) on 5th February, 2016. That includes:

3.1 Industrialization is the key for development

3.2 Banking and Stock market

3.3 Special attention to middle income group

3.4 Mining policy in accordance with national safety

3.5 To save up income from natural resources and make policy for developing non natural resource sectors, and for creating employment

3.6 Equal distribution of natural resource income

3.7 To build industrial park including steelworks, copper mill, petrochemical refinery

3.8 From brown to green economy

3.9 Employment

3.10 One nation – One Soldier: To involve soldiers for big national establishments in order to provide them profession skills required while having income at the same time

3.11 Support wealth creation by eliminating state intervention, examination and taxation, and corruption

3.12 To develop economic passage between two neighbours, and to develop economic relations with the two neighbours as well as with 3rd neighbors

3.13 To build transnational railroads

3.14 Renewable energy

3.15 Financial and Investment market

  1. President, who ensures ecological balance, and protects homeland

Special attention to appropriate use of  Mongolian natural resources, to keep the ecological balance by reducing climate change (?), greenhouse gas, human and industrial harm on the nature, and to hand over pristine nature for our future generation.

4.1 Eco-friendly technology

4.2 Climate Change

4.3 Air and soil pollution

4.4 Waste to energy policy

4.5 Taxation policy on ecofriendly technology

4.6 Tourism

4.7 To support initiative of any kind to process raw coal and shale

4.8 Water protection

4.9 Protection of critically endangered plants and animals

  1. President, who launches a new era for export, and prefers balanced foreign relations

The leading principals of president’s foreign policies are to protect Mongolian independence, self-preserved sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders; to reassure the democracy chosen by people of Mongolia; and equal cooperation which is in interest of nation.

Special attention to mutually beneficial cooperation at regional and international level in order for economically free, independent, and accelerated development. To expand market for product and knowledge which are made in Mongolia.

Active and friendly policy to all Mongols living worldwide and soft power diplomacy through promotion of Mongolian history, national heritage, and pride at international level.

5.1 Foreign policy which protects national interest

5.2 Foreign policy which puts economy first

5.3 Bilateral economic relation with Russian Federation and People’s Republic of China

5.4 Regional economic integration through railway, airway, and expressway

5.5 Foreign investment and trade

5.6 Taxation on foreign trade

5.7 Third neighbor policy

5.8 India, Central Asian countries, Turkey

5.9 Foreign policy independent from political divide

5.10 Mongolians living abroad

5.11 Mongolians visiting abroad

5.12 Active participation in UN and in other international organizations

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M Enkbold’s Election Platform

Posted on June 11, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

Summarized and Translated by Bayanjargalmaa B

Below we’re offering a translation of M Enkhbold’s presidential campaign platform. We have already posted a translation of S Ganbaatar’s platform and of Kh Battulga’s platform.

By providing an English translation, we want to make information available to non-Mongolian readers to allow them to get a sense of M Enkhbold (and the others) as a candidate. We have attempted to translate the platform to the best of our ability, but not to linguistic, rather to substantive standards.

If you have any comments on the translation, please do use the comment function below.

The translation was based on the version of the platform that appears on the GEC website.

MONGOLIAN PEOPLE’S PARTY 2017 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE’S ELECTION PLATFORM

 

I; MONGOLIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ENKHBOLD MIYEGOMBO, hereby present to the voters my platform which is based on the following three core ideologies

THE SAME SOUL LIKE AN ASPIRATION OF MY PEOPLE

THE SAME AIR LIKE A DEMAND OF THE FAMILIES

THE SAME SOIL LIKE AN ACT OF MY COUNTRY

I WILL BE THE PRESIDENT; WHO CARES FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY, AND CARRIES OUT YOUR VOICE.

The bases for a developed Mongolia are healthy and educated people who love their country.

I will work hard to prepare our children for life, to improve and protect the lives of younger generation as well as older generations.

Hereby, I that I honor human rights, freedom, and justice; and will lead the government policies, which strengthen democracy and are based on voice of the people.

ONE: NATIONAL UNITY; MONGOLIAN PRIDE

  • Unified Mongolia – to comply with the concept of national unity
  • Mongolia with value – Implementation of policies to mature citizens who honor nationalism and national pride
  • Basis of Unity – law and order, justice, equal distribution of resources are the basis for unity
  • Positive political culture – to provide a legal basis for balanced political cooperation between the President, State Great Khural and Government and active cooperation with civil organizations
  • State policy for people – to prioritize people before political and business interest
  • Political Parties – to provide new legal basis for accountable and financially-open political parties and to improve checks and balance system for those who have higher governing power
  • Abide by the rules – to issue a presidential decree which stated that children’s schooling shall be based on traditional method in order for them to become Mongolian person /Mongol Khun/.
  • Freedom of the press is a guarantee of democracy – correction of legislations which limits press freedom, support for socially responsible, independent, and professional press, cooperation with press in order to enlighten society

TWO: RESPONSIBLE; JUST; AND STABLE GOVERNANCE

2.1 Balanced, responsible, stable state – national referendum for constitutional change in order to perfect governance, state responsibility, checks and balance, and to ensure stability

2.2 Professional Public Service

2.3 Public Service with right mindset

2.4 Public Service without corruption

2.5 Fair representation of social groups

2.6 Responsible law enforcement

2.7 Independent Judicial Governance

2.8 Apolitical Judicial Administration

2.9 Fair Judge – Fair Decision

2.10 Criminals – Real liability

2.11 Well deserved prizes

THREE: MONGOLIAN PERSON IS VALUABLE ASSET OF MONGOLIA

3.1 State policy for its people

3.2 Definite Health Policy

3.3 Accessible Health service

3.4 National Plan for ‘Health precaution of Mongolian Person’

3.5 The basis is health body

3.6 Mongolian person with compatibility

3.7 Practical knowledge

3.8 Mongolia with cultural heritage

3.9 Home based world education

3.10 Opportunity to study abroad

3.11 Youth development

3.12 Investor citizen

3.13 Support for nomads

3.14 Reachable social protection

3.15 Skill – Social Guarantee: Special attention to those in educational and health sector

3.16 Gender equality

3.17 Mother and children

3.18 Mongolians living abroad

3.19 Support for science and technology

3.20 Research, development fund

3.21 Homeland invitation to skilled human resource abroad

3.22 Urbanization – solution for national development

3.23 New settlements – New infrastructure

3.24 New railway routes

FOUR: MIDDLE CLASS – WEALTH CREATION

4.1 Middle class with compatibility

4.2 Stable and growing economy

4.3 National productivity

4.4 Mutual trust – Investment

4.5 Diversified economy

4.6 New manufacturing policies

4.7 Production requires higher technology

4.8 Energy export

4.9 Well-sold resources

4.10 Saving fund for a future generation

4.11 ‘Economic Passage’ agenda

4.12 New Countryside (Khuduu)

4.13 Rural development

4.14 Small and middle size production – creation of new jobs

4.15 Start-Up business

4.16 Investment Market Reform

4.17 Mongolia before offshore

4.18 Productive State property

4.19 Regional tourism

4.20 Mongolian Content

FIVE: NATIONAL SECURITY; FOREIGN POLICY

5.1 Multi-Pillar Foreign Policy

5.2 Good neighbor Policy

5.3 Third neighbor Policy

5.4 Active international cooperation

5.5 Opportunity for visa free travel

5.6 Green development – safe environment

5.7 Environment Protection

5.8 Eco-friendly vehicle

5.9 Clean air, water, and coil

5.10 Water

5.11 Responsible Mining

5.12 Healthy Food

5.13 High quality medicine

5.14 Defense Policy

5.15 Mongolian Soldier – Peace Soldier

5.16 Arming and technological reform

5.17 Capacity to protect the border

5.18 National Citizen Protection –earthquake, conflagration, flood and others

5.19 Prevention for possible terrorist risks

5.20 Online safety

5.21 Strong fight against marijuana

5.22 World known Mongolia

If I will be elected as a president, I will keep the succession of state policy, and ensure participation and representation of all social class, and work together with State Great Khural and Government in order to implement this platform.

The execution of platform will be led by myself, and my action will reflect my promises (it won’t be all talk no action), and each year I will report the result of my work to the people and State Great Khural.

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Posted in Elections, Mongolian People's Party, Politics, Presidential 2017 | 1 Comment

S Ganbaatar’s Election Platform

Posted on June 9, 2017 by bulgan batdorj

Translation by Bulgan B

Below we’re offering a translation of S Ganbaatar’s presidential campaign platform. We also hope to post translations of the other two platforms.

By providing an English translation, we want to make information available to non-Mongolian readers to allow them to get a sense of S Ganbaatar (and the others) as a candidate. We have attempted to translate the platform to the best of our ability, but not to linguistic, rather to substantive standards.

If you have any comments on the translation, please do use the comment function below.

MPRP 2017 Presidential Election Candidate Sainkhuu GANBAATAR’s Election Platform

“To begin a grand journey”

Slogan: Let’s choose Mongolia (Монголоо сонгоё)

  1. To rid of unemployment and poverty by walking the talk
  2. To establish Justice
  3. To worship the higher public interests
  4. To take pride in being born Mongolian
  5. To increase the worth of “Mongolian person”
  6. To reach success by resolving pressing challenges
  7. To own “the three beautiful”
  8. To match the word and action
  9. To begin a grand journey

Part One

An issue: One of the most pressing challenges of today is the gap between the election promises made by the political parties and their action after the election. Citizens criticize that this gap is making the government irresponsible thus demanding it to be fixed.

An issue: According to the citizens, unemployment is one of the main factors that outrage the public. The current government could not resolve this pressing challenge in an urgent manner and unemployment has been increasing over 10%. Therefore, the unemployment, directly and indirectly causing despair in our society, leading many good Mongolian (youth – залуус) to abandon their motherland to pursue employment and income in other countries.

An issue: As the political, social and economic crisis deepens the income of the public is reduced, making the poverty as the most pressing challenge according to researches published by research organizations such as “sant maral”.  According to a research, people in poverty and families in poverty cannot purchase more than most basic necessities, hardly surviving, let alone planning their future. In order to get out of this political, social and economic crisis, everyone should get into action of:

  • Making the government accountable;
  • Reducing and eliminating unemployment;
  • Reducing and eradicating poverty.

Part Two: To Establish Justice

An issue: Today, citizens see that because of unemployment and poverty, the gap between the rich and poor is increasing, and relatively well-off middle class is decreasing which illustrates the loss of justice and therefore creating environment which would cause a loss of social stability. Especially, the offshore account issues are causing a major public outrage.

An issue: Citizens see that establishing justice means returning the money deposited in offshore accounts back to Mongolia, spending that money in resolving the pressing issues of economy and society, receiving equal benefit of natural resources, improving the condition to study in higher education, expanding the healthcare quality and scope, reducing the public service bureaucracy, fairness in legal and judiciary organizations activities. The time has come that the government, officials see, listen and understand that the public is demonstrating, protesting en masse to establish this kind of justice. Behind this fight, the question of whether the justice would be established in Mongolia is being raised and therefore every Mongolian person should speak out for justice which has historical significance of equalizing the fate of the Mongolians.

Part Three: To Worship the Higher Public Interests

An issue: All Mongolians are publicly aspiring “To ” and deep in their heart feel and understand that “If don’t part now, it will be late”.  The roots of the success in reaching this aspiration is to put the party interests to the back and Mongolians interests in priority. So, Mongolians can the his/her, his/her family, and his/her children’s fate.

Part Four: To Take Pride in Being Born Mongolian

An issue: Although , we are united under the sacred name Mongolia and take pride in being born Mongolian. Since the ancient time Mongolians worshiped justice, and did not tolerate injustice which made us stand out from others. We are truly Mongolians therefore are obliged to serve the deed of re-establishing justice which is rare in Mongolia now.

An issue: Strong and solid unity founded on justice, intensive development policy founded on strong and solid unity, vigorous activities founded on intensive development policy, “match of word and action” in Mongolia:

  1. Reforming and founding accountable government;
  2. Solidly establishing justice;
  3. Eliminating unemployment;
  4. Eradicating poverty.

An issue: Consequently, Mongolian youth would be provided with employment reliably and would have a guaranteed income. They would not need to abandon their mother land to chase job and income. Thus, Mongolian family and Mongolian public will be complete (unbroken, or whole).

Part Five: To Increase the Worth of “Mongol Hun”

An issue: Because politics, society and economy are in crisis, the worth of “Mongol Hun” is deteriorated. But Mongolians have been justice revering and brave people who loved their motherland thus saving its independence in the heart of the Asian continent and therefore a people with lots of worth and history of victory. For such beautiful public, the government should ensure employment and income to all, ensure education to the youth, and keep the senior healthy so that every Mongolians worth would increase. In any country, the public who can demand the government instead of begging it and having the government serving them are the public that is worthwhile. The time has come to show that Mongolians are just, brave and demand the government to action the promises!

We can do it!

Part Six: To Reach Success by Resolving to Face Challenges

An issue: The challenges we are facing are:

  1. Unaccountability
  2. Unemployment
  3. Poverty
  4. Injustice

An issue: Our successes are:

  1. Justice;
  2. Employment and income;
  3. Great upbuilding (Их Бүтээн Байгуулалт)
  4. Solidarity.

An issue: In resolving the pressing challenges and reaching the success would not cost large amount of extra spending. Working together in leveraging right mind, experience, knowledge and education and respecting public interests the pressing challenges could be resolved and success could be reached in the approved budget of today.

Part Seven: To Own the Three “Beautiful” (good)

An issue: Mongolian in Mongolia, owning the country’s natural resources would mean shifting the center of attention from officials who are shielded by the name of the government and sitting protected in the middle of all and creating a just system which can protect the Mongolian (Монгол хүн). The existence of Mongolia therefore would mean existence for creating good life for Mongolian public and Mongolian (Монгол хүн) and his/her interests would be in the center of everything.

An issue: We are called Mongolians because we traversed the past together. However, the sacred name Mongolians do not only belong to the passed and gone. The moment that we imagine that we will create and carve our future together, and then we can stay and continue to exist as Mongolians, the Mongolians will own the three beautiful:

  • Owner of a beautiful fate
  • Owner of a beautiful natural resources
  • Owner of a beautiful Mongolia.

Yes, we are the owners of these!

We have one future to become the owner of these!

Part Eight: To match Word and Action

An issue: Today, in Mongolia a person who “walks the talk” and “creator” is needed a lot (as much as water and air). A person who tells the truth when talking, do good when doing, aim to accomplish when going. Mongolians, let’s become a person who deliver on his/her promise, and who matches its word and action.

Part Nine: To Begin a Grand Journey

An issue: We are beginning a grand journey with objectives to:

  1. Have accountable government;
  2. Establish justice;
  3. Create employment;
  4. Eradicate poverty;
  5. Strengthen solidarity.

In this grand journey, we will be the real owners of Mongolia, own the natural resources, will increase the value and worth of Mongolian and Mongolia will be energized.

Our grand journey is a journey to happiness!

Long live Mongolia! (Мандтугай)

May Mongolians rise and thrive forever!

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Posted in Elections, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | 3 Comments

Three-Way Race

Posted on June 7, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

Now that we have three confirmed candidates, let’s think about how the campaign and vote might unfold.

First, a humble attempt at a joke that emerged from a tweeted discussion about politicians’ nick names:

[city boy = Enkhbold M as he presents himself as a country-side horse breeder, but has spent his life in Ulaanbaatar and has his political strength in the city, judoka = Battulga, Feng Shui = Ganbaataar who sold Feng Shui paraphernalia at some point in his career.]

I also used this quip in a recent article for The Diplomat that aimed to give an introduction/overview over the candidates.

Will Three-Way Race Lead to Run-Off?

There has never been a run-off in Mongolian presidential elections. Note that voter participation has to be above 50% for a valid vote, and a single candidate has to receive more than 50% to avoid a run-off.

There is a reasonable case that suggests that the current constellation of candidates makes a run-off more likely than previously. It seems quite possible that Battulga and Ganbaatar can win 50% between the two of them, leaving less than 50% of the vote for Enkhbold and forcing a run-off, likely two weeks later. The case for this suggests that the DP should be able to mobilize voters roughly at the level of last year’s parliamentary election (33%), while the MPRP will likely generate a share of 10%+, so with some of the swing vote going to protest voters or voters opposed to MPP dominance, it seems imaginable that Battulga receives close to 40% and Ganbaatar more than 10%.

Votes for Ganbaatar or Battulga could be a positive vote for either candidate, or a protest against Enkhbold or MPP domination, or a desire for a second round of voting for a clearer choice.

Given that the DP and MPRP candidates seem to be arranged as an antithesis (current power constellation, personality, etc.) to Enkhbold, it seems unlikely that either would top Enkhbold’s vote count.

Of course, given the unpredictability of Ganbaatar and Battulga in their past political utterances and campaigning, either of them might well self-destruct at some point during the 18-day campaign period.

If a second round of voting does become necessary, all bets are off, as it would remain to be seen whether the candidate eliminated might endorse either of the remaining candidates, and the extent one or another of the candidates might scare off the electorate through their volatility.

 

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Posted in Democracy, Democratic Party, Elections, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | Leave a comment

Initial Campaign Impressions

Posted on June 7, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

After a first full day of campaigning, here are some very quick, superficial impressions of the presidential election campaign.

These are based largely on Twitter and some emailing, as I am about to get on a plane headed for Ulaanbaatar, to see more of the campaign live in Mongolia.

Social Media

I was astonished especially in the 2016 parliamentary election, how little strategic use of social media candidates seemed to be making. Yes, there was some campaigning, but it was fairly unimaginative and basically used social media as a broadcast medium for official campaign messages, but less to engage voters directly.

Caveat: I myself mainly focus on Twitter and recognize that Facebook is in even greater use in Mongolia. Given algorithmic bubbles and all, I might simply be missing a lot of traffic and strategic campaigning.

So, will this change in this election? Will we see a more strategic use of social media?

Hashtags are generally not used much in Mongolia so far, but the MPP/Enkhbold campaign does seem to be rolling out hashtags that are also used by supporters.

Examples:

Over at the DP, have they set up a dedicated campaign account?

https://twitter.com/Battulga2k17

The 2k17 name seems a bit odd, but the links are to official campaign sites, so perhaps this has been created by the Battulga organization. Or, perhaps it is an account set up for dark campaigning?

Campaign Fashion

I don’t recall seeing quite so many deels on the candidates themselves or among their supporters. This seems to go along with the frequent use of Mongolian, Mongolia, etc. to give the campaign a bit of a nationalist flavour, perhaps?

Here, a snapshot of a campaign poster where Ganbaatar is posing with Enkhbayar:

How about Battulga in this handsome black-with-silver-dots deel:

Or, another version here:

Then, Enkhbold in a less flashy, more country burgundy deel:

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New President, New Foreign Policy?

Posted on June 5, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

The Mongolian constitution assigns responsibility for international relations to the president. Ts Elbegdorj has been very active in this regard for the past eight years of his two terms as president. With the election campaign getting ready to kick off on June 6, here is some speculation about what a new president might mean for Mongolia’s international relations, following on some of the questions on this subject Mendee raised in a previous post.

Economic Concerns are Foreign Relations Concerns

First of all, according to Spring-time polls, economic concerns are still top-of-mind for most Mongolians. Obviously, given Mongolia’s status as an emerging resource nation, economic concerns are closely tied to the mining economy which in turn is dependent on foreign investment (to some extent) and exports (to a very large extent). To the extent that international relations will show up in constructive parts of the campaign (never mind dark campaign rumours about various foreign ties of candidates), it is thus most likely going to relate to attempts to bring foreign investment back to the mining sector, to push toward diversification, and to ensure benefits from the mining economy that extend beyond the families of those directly employed or active in the industry.

The Candidates

None of the three candidates have an international profile, nor do they seem particularly adept at or interested in foreign relations.

Obviously, Enkhbold’s current role as party and Great Khural chair put him in contact with international relations more directly and also means that he has travelled on government business more than Battulga and Ganbaatar have as MPs. Very specifically, the MPP government was already in place for last year’s ASEM summit and Enkhbold was significantly involved in hosting that meeting.

Through his role as president of the judo federation, Battulga does travel and certainly is experienced in international sports diplomacy. International relations via sport is a very particular perspective on diplomacy, but still one could also point to significant parallels.

I am not aware that any of the three are perceived as particularly friendly with Russia or China, or any of the Third Neighbours.

Decline in Visibility at UN/Internationally

It is fairly clear that the shift from Pres. Elbegdorj to a successor will bring an immediate decline of Mongolia’s international visibility and stature. This will have far-reaching consequences for Mongolia, though the extent to which these are immediate and material consequences will have to be seen.

Many of the occasions of Mongolia’s relative prominence in international affairs (e.g. Community of Democracies, Freedom Online Coalition, nuclear-free status, ASEM summit) have been perceived abroad as tied relatively closely to Pres. Elbegdorj.

Wither Third Neighbours?

The overall decline of Mongolian visibility with the end of Pres. Elbegdorj’ term in office will also apply to relations with third neighbours. Whatever Mongolians might think about Elbegdorj’ self-portrayal as a democratic revolutionary and champion of democracy abroad, he was credible in this presentation and thus had an easy time with many third neighbours.

Commercial relations with third neighbours, especially potential mining investors from countries like Australia and Canada, will be more difficult for any of the candidates. While Enkhbold will at least claim stability as a virtue (if only Theresa May’s “strong and stable” had turned into a bandwaggon), Battulga and Ganbaatar will both be perceived as somewhat dangerous populists making relations with third neighbours more difficult.

Wither Neighbours?

As all Mongolian politicians do, the new president will have to deal very directly and carefully with China and Russia,  its direct neighbours.

Enkhbold has been on numerous official visits to both in his various positions in government. He could thus be assumed to have a personal and official network.

This is less clear about Battulga and Ganbaatar, though Jenco is at least rumoured to have many business ties to either neighbour.

Wither Innovation

Quietly, there have been a number of innovations in Mongolian foreign policy over recent years. The MPP has shown a very limited desire to adopt policies of the DP as their own, so it would seem likely that a President Enkhbold would discontinue theses while their fate would be uncertain under Ganbaatar or Battulga.

ICF

The International Cooperation Fund has operated as Mongolia’s development aid for some years. It has already suffered from budget cuts under recent austerity measures, but will it continue at all after the election? The most interesting aspect to me has been the notion that Mongolia may not provide a best practice example to some of its development partners around Asia, but a relevant example! It would be unfortunate if that idea was abandoned.

Digital Diplomacy

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been fairly active in various digital domains, for example with activities ahead of the ASEM summit. Will these be abandoned. None of the three candidates seem particularly interested in digital domains, nor in foreign policy…

Wither Development Aid

The general loss of Mongolian visibility coupled with some of the challenges in relations with third neighbours I listed above may signal an overall decline in development aid directed at Mongolia, esp. if current commodity prices continue to rise and make Mongolia’s position less precarious.

Wither Elbegdorj?

For a long time, I have assumed that Pres. Elbegdorj would seek some kind of senior position in the UN system. There have been no concrete mentions of that recently. But, I imagine that this is still a possibility. Such an appointment might salvage some of the decline in Mongolia’s visibility internationally.

Conclusions

It is hard to see how any of the three candidates would boost Mongolia’s standing internationally, in part because Pres. Elbegdorj has personally outshone the country for some time. Obviously, any of the three of them might grow into a more presidential, visible and innovative foreign policy role, but none of them really give indications of that, and at this point it seems unlikely that foreign policy will feature prominently in the campaign to give an indication of future developments.

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Posted in China, Foreign Policy, International Relations, Mongolia and ..., North Korea, Presidential 2017, Russia, South Korea, UN, United States | Tagged | 1 Comment

Presidential Election: Diversion Tactics – Chinese Erliiz (Hybridity)

Posted on June 3, 2017 by mendee

by Mendee

One of the classic belittling methods among Mongolian political candidates has been to call each other an ethnic hybridity of either Chinese or Russian and Mongolian.  This causes one to engage in fruitless defensive effort to prove his/her Mongolian origins whereas the other to use all available schemes to spread the hybridity rumours (erliiz, hurliiz). Very few stand up for the victim because s/he could fall into the same hybridity category.  Everyone Mongolian can recall or tell story about this ‘hybridity and origins’ fight, starting from kindergarten to universities.  It does more emotional and mental harm to individuals since the issue cannot be resolved scientifically and/or officially.  Once it becomes political, it can easily erode the social capital of the community and nation – ‘the unity.’

Ethnicity Questions in Past Elections

In this election, we are about to witness very familiar debates.  Tweets, posts, and rumours about hybridity of all three candidates are out.  This was the case for many presidential candidates, Ochirbat (in 1993 and 1997), Enkhsaikhan (2005), and Elbegdorj (2009) were framed and attacked respectively.  At the most dramatic scene, President Elbegdorj flew to his home province and asked his mother about his father’s ethnicity with tears in his eyes.  In reality, this could be labeled as an interesting ‘diversion tactic’ for the election.  It directs the voters’ attention to endless, nonsense debate and rumours while putting their opponents in difficult situations since there is no simple, effective solution.

More Important Issues

But, this diverts voters’ attention from many important issues.  Here are some critical issues for the presidential candidates in this election.  Voters should know where these candidates stand and whether they have practical, lasting solutions.

Foreign Policy – instead of triggering rumours about hybridity, candidates should be presenting their strategies on foreign policy.  In a new geopolitical environment, Mongolia needs to take advantage of the Chinese regional economic initiatives, to cultivate Russian economic and security interests, and to consolidate its ties with ‘third neighbours.’  A small state, with little capacity to influence policies in major capitals, should pursue unified and sustainable foreign policies – rather than, as happened in last several years, President, Prime Minister, and Speaker rush to the same capital (Tokyo or Berlin) within a few days solely for their personal, party, and may be governmental branch (institutional) interests.  Voters and professionals at the foreign service need to know if the new president continue these uncoordinated foreign policy endeavours or endorse professionally-driven, pragmatic foreign policies.

Judiciary & Law Enforcement – all public polls and the majority of reports, foreign and domestic alike, have been demonstrating the societal wish for justice and the rule of law.  Efforts to reform and, especially, to increase the independence of the judicial and law enforcement were plenty in the past.  But, none of these reforms have been complete and fully satisfactory.  Probably all, (except those benefiting or having ability to protect their rights within the current system), want to see the judiciary and key law enforcement agencies (e.g., anti-corruption and police) investigate and penalize corruption cases effectively.  These institutions exist, people want justice, and professionals need political assurances.  Will the next president fight to provide the political assurances and professional freedom to judiciary and law enforcement to bring the justice?  Will the president improve the institutional resilience of these organizations to withstand against political-economic factions or influential individuals?

Public Service – the most debated theme during all elections. But, the winning party (DP in 1996, MPP in 2000, DP in 2012, MPP in 2016) forgets its pre-election promises.  Fine laws, (with clear purpose of depoliticizing the public service) were approved, revised, and publicized.  Again, party leaders forgot to implement.  The professional meritocracy was briefly re-introduced by Prime Minister Bayar in 2008/2009 and talked by DP leaders in 2012.  However, because of the cartellization of the party and factional competition, party leaders couldn’t reach their election promises of making the public service – professional, apolitical, and continuous.  The trading of the public offices began in the late 90s by both DP and then MPP.  During the coalition governments (2004-2008, 2012-2016), coalition governments divided up specific ministries, agencies, and state-owned enterprises as if it was the privatization process of the government (cabinet).  Now, voters and public servants are entitled to know whether the next president makes any promises and commitments to the public service.  Will the president make either professional or political merits in changing public servants in security organizations?  Or, will the president to end the politicization of the public service by making it  a true policy ‘gatekeepers’ in the era of populism?

These could be main themes for this presidential election, rather than engaging in childlike, never-ending, fruitless hybridity debates and rumours.  As professional politicians, candidates lay out their foreign policy approaches and explain practical plans to de-politicize the judiciary, law-enforcement, and public service.   All these institutions, in turn with support from a strong president, stop the cartellization of political parties and trading of professional posts.  Otherwise, the profit-based structuralization of parties would NOT increase the public trust, raise the confidence of public servants/professionals, and gain support from business sectors.

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Presidential Election: A Game Already Started

Posted on May 31, 2017 by mendee

By Mendee 

It seems the election battle already began in the Mongolian social media.  Tweets and posts about educational levels of three candidates were the first theme, but didn’t travel well.  Then, the classic technique of alleging candidate’s ethnic links, especially to Chinese-origin, has triggerred heated responses and most likely continue for this election.  A few days ago, the MPP-dominated parliament endorsed Prime Minister’s decision to remove the Minister for Education, Culture, and Science for several mistakes.  Was it a tactic of either the MPP or Prime Minister Erdenebat to demonstrate their ability and desire to hold their members accountable? Then, the Democratic Party organized an open hearing about the leaked MPP conversation on appraising senior and mid-level posts – which is, indeed, an important topic to scrutinize in order to move away from the patronage politics.

For sure, the game already started, players are ready, referees (GEC and judiciary) are not changed since last elections, and observers (e.g., OSCE and CSOs) are in place.  Probably, this election will not shake the overall political landscape, but it will shape the power dynamics within two major political parties and decide the fate of the third party.

The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is in most advanteous position at a moment.  It constitutes a supreme majority in the parliament, runs the government (i.e., a single-party government), and controls all provincial governors and citizens’ councils, except Zavkhan province. Also, the MPP regained its control over the capital city and its districts.  Basically, the MPP is in charge of the legislature and government (central and local).  The parliament has conducted a number of major fact-finding investigations, including the Chinggis Bond spending, Erdenet copper factory, and the Bank of Mongolia.  All served to disclose facts related inefficient and unaccountable cabinets of the Democratic Party dominated legislature and government.  The MPP is well-organized, disciplined, and united behind its presidential candidate.  But, Enkhbold’s departure will definitely trigger the power struggle among two major factions:  Prime Minister Erdenebat, who has backing of Enkhbold versus Deputy Premier Khurelsukh, who gains the popularity among young members.  The current setting is quite similar to 2001, when the MPP had control the legislature, cabinet, and local governance.  If Enkhbold loses, he will be still in charge of the MPP politics, but needs to manage the imminent power struggle.

The Democratic Party (DP) is in difficult situation.  Its popular leaders and influential members are divided, some (e.g., Bat-Uul, Amarjargal, Temuujin, Baabar) openly expressed their discontent to current party leadership, procedures for selecting the candidate, and even the candidate himself. The party has limited access to the state resources, lost its ideological orientations, and most importantly, lacks unity among key factions.  At the same time, although the party’s one of the key leaders holds the presidency, he needs remain politically neutral under the constitutional mandate.  This means, Shonkhor faction (Erdene, party chairman, and Z. Enkhbold, former speaker) and Mongolian Democratic Union (i.e., faction) need to shoulder all responsibility to support its candidate.  It would be quite costly elections for the DP candidate.  At the moment, many members of the DP would like to see how things will go with this election.  Aftermath of the election, the power dynamics of the DP will be shaped to compete in the 2020 parliamentary elections. This will be time for many members and supporters to make tough, uncertain choices.

The Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) is the only surviving third party.  Its power base is in decline since it lost many of its key members and local branches.  Enkhbayar’s re-entry into the politics have been clearly constrained (mostly by legal mechanisms).  Because of disagreements over the party’s presidential candidate, relationship among MP Baasankhuu, Chairman Enkhbayar, and candidate Ganbaatar appears to be quite conflictual. Given the past records of third party candidates in the presidential elections, the likelihood of gaining above 14 percent is unlikely.  But, no one will surprise if Ganbaatar will score higher, but that would be dangerous to the DP candidate and causes the second run between two main parties.  Neverthlesss, the MPRP’s leverage over the domestic politics will decline until the 2020 parliamentary elections.

Finally, the Constitutional Referendum would be the most interesting aspect of this election since none, except the MPP-dominated parliament, would tell how this would be done.  Would it be used to increase the voter turnout? Even though voters don’t like all three candidates, for instance, many could be interested in participating in the first-ever constitutional referendum voting.  Or, would it be used as a safey valve (or a hidden card) for the MPP parliament to reduce the power and authority of the new president if the MPP loses in the election?  This makes the politics very interesting and fresh. Let’s wait and see.

 

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North Korea Turmoil = Mongolian International Relations Role

Posted on May 26, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

Some months ago, I speculated about the implications that a changed foreign policy under U.S. Pres. Trump might have for Mongolia.

I was certainly right about one aspect:

[W]ith Donald Trump becoming U.S.-president, I have to add a fairly random element to any risk assessment that acknowledges the utter unpredictability of the new president.

If anything, foreign policy (to the fortunately limited extent that it is made by the President) has become even more unpredictable than one might have expected. This also holds for areas of U.S. foreign policy that matter to Mongolia.

For example, China. Here, Trump continues to wildly swing his foreign policy bat all over the place. From the early phone conversation with Taiwanese Pres. Tsai, to subsequent cozying up to Chinese Pres. Xi, it is impossible – so far – to take a guess at what random twitches of foreign policy in U.S.-China relations might come next.

The Stickiness of the North Korea Issue

While much presidential foreign policy has been random, on one topic, this has produced more concern, but perhaps also an actual shift in policy, namely North Korea. It does seem like missives from Pres. Trump and those around him suggest somewhat consistently that the days of “strategic patience” are over. Perhaps this is not surprising, as “patience” will probably not emerge as one of  the hallmarks of Pres. Trump’s term in office.

Given the concurrent shift that is signalled by the election of Pres. Moon in South Korea, but also the persistence of North Korean missile tests, it does seem like the DPRK is on Pres. Trump’s mind in a very prominent way. And so, a “particular focus” is reported from the G7 Summit.

And Mongolia?

Of course, Korea (North and South) is of significance to Mongolia. Any notion of a Northeast Asian region includes the Koreas, whether it is the Greater Tumen Initiative, or any other conceptualization of the region. Clearly, South Korea is an important Third Neighbour and commercial partner. Some years ago there were even some tentative attempts to establish commercial relations with North Korea.

But it is Mongolia that may be important to the world in the context of concerns about North Korea.  Mongolia’s links with North Korea remain strong in a unique way around the world.

What the Washington Post’s David Jones wrote about this connection in 2009, still holds today.

the curiously warm relationship between North Korea and Mongolia, an important U.S. aid recipient and perhaps the world’s only democracy that can honestly call North Korea its friend.

Time and again, the Mongolian government has offered its services in brokering contact between the government in Pyongyang and the U.S. Over the years, there have been various meetings of this kind with U.S. or Japanese involvement and the general tenor always seems to be that North Korean participants in such meetings are generally comfortable in Ulaanbaatar which gives such meetings an advantage over attempts to meet in Beijing or Moscow, for example.

If the U.S. administration develops some kind of coherent stance toward the DPRK that is different from previous attempts at engagement, at some point Mongolian offers to host meetings or broker discussions may prove valuable. This could be the case even if the South Korean government under Pres. Moon also chances its stance. Any such shift might even be followed by Japanese PM Abe who could see this as an area for constructive collaboration with the U.S., but also with South Korea, but probably without China.

Discussions could come in formal contexts like the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue that was initiated by still-barely-President Elbegdorj and is set to meet again in June 2017, or through less formal, more direct contacts.

If, on the other hand, the situation becomes more confrontational, North Korean trust and comfort with Mongolian officials could be a lifeline – literally – in the event of some kind of crisis.

As I wrote in the earlier piece, however, given Trumpian volatility, it is not clear that Mongolian policy makers should wish for the attention that a shift in relations with North Korean might bring.

Addendum

Here’s a reaction I received to a tweet about this post:

Trip Edington’s pointer got me thinking about what trajectory US policy toward the DPRK might take and what this could mean for Mongolia.

The US seems to be leaning heavily on allies to cut all ties with Pyongyang. For example, in Berlin – where I am based at the moment -, a quiet scandal has been brewing over some weeks now linked to the hostel that the North Korean embassy runs on its ground in central Berlin. Apparently, the hostel finances embassy operations, but the cause for the scandal seems to be the fact that the embassy has neglected to pay taxes on this enterprise. While this has been going on for some time, the moment to lean on the embassy for theses taxes could be a consequence of the US leaning on the German government to cut ties. This has also been suggested by some German academics.

In the Mongolian context, the US administration might thus well demand that Mongolia sever its relations with North Korea as a strategy of intensified isolation. For the US, this would be unfortunate as it would lose one possible avenue to approach Pyongyang in a way that could produce some kind of dialogue. At the same time, this could be very unfortunate for the Mongolian government as it might be forced into a situation where it has to give up one of its international relations, er, trump cards, so as not to anger the US.

Perhaps this year’s iteration of the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue (as mentioned above) will bring an indication of the direction that US views of the Mongolian-North Korean relationship will take. The Dialogue was originally opposed by the US precisely because it involved North Korean representatives and thus seemed to be a rival or side channel that would undermine the Six Party Talks. This opposition seems to have moderated in the last two years. On the other hand, the Dialogue is closely associated with Pres. Elbegdorj and his foreign policy, so a new Mongolian president might not be so inclined to maintain that forum if there is pressure from the US.

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Posted in China, Foreign Policy, Mongolia and ..., North Korea, Ulaanbaatar Dialogue, United States | Tagged | Leave a comment

Regions, Nutag, & Voter Allegiances in the Presidential Election

Posted on May 23, 2017 by Julian Dierkes

By Julian Dierkes

One of the interesting potential dynamics of the presidential campaign and election will be the regional distribution of votes among the three candidates.

The Regional Strengths of Political Affiliation

Conventional wisdom holds that the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is strong in the countryside while the Democratic Party (DP) dominates in Ulaanbaatar.

The reasons offered for this distribution is that the MPP inherited an intact party organization from the longtime state party, the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party, giving it the ability not only to organize party members for campaigning in the countryside, but also distributing the spoils of political office (especially public jobs) among its members and supporters.

By contrast, traditional DP strength in Ulaanbaatar is often traced back to the democratic revolution of 1989/90 and a portrayal of this revolution as primarily an urban one, even though Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet and Dakhan as the three urban centres of the country included a much smaller proportion of the population at that time.

Country-Urban and Regional Divides in Mongolian Politics

The countryside and herding loom, er,  large in symbolic politics. Most politicians continue to refer to their rural/herding roots in speeches, even when those roots may lie two or even three generations in their family’s past. Members of parliament from outside of Ulaanbaatar are often accused of neglecting their regional roots for politics in the capital. The homeland (nutag) associations play a seemingly powerful role as lobby organizations but also in creating provincial caucuses or networks of politicians with common provincial roots.

Yet, as with so many aspects of Mongolian politics, this regional structuring does not translate into substantive politics. While it may have its roots in countryside organizations, it would be difficult to identify policies that the MPP has pursued or initiated of the past 25 years that offer more benefits to the countryside. At least rhetorically, the DP does appear to focus on Ulaanbaatar, but it does not seem to do so at the expense of rural development.

Likewise, it would be very difficult to divide aimags into political camps by sorting them as to the impact of mining on regional economies. While the impact of large-scale mining has been significant in some Gobi aimags and largely absent from Western aimags, this difference does not seem to translate into different political allegiances, last least not as mapped onto party politics.

The Roots of Presidential Candidates

Pres. Elbegdorj has long been identified as the leading politician from Khovd. Uvs is another Western aimag that has been over-represented in current Mongolian politics.

The current three candidates are almost equally clearly identified with specific aimags.

Enkhbold

Even though Enkhbold M has been elected to the State Great Khural from Tov, he is very much rooted in Ulaanbaatar. His political career began in Ulaanbaatar and his power within the MPP seems to derive from his command over the capital political machinery.

Will his Ulaanbaatar roots allow him to garner significant support in the capital where voters have previously been loyal to the DP? Or will DP loyalists eschew Enkhbold, but also not vote for their party’s more rural candidate, Battulga? Will they lend their votes in protest to populist Ganbaatar in significant numbers?

Battulga

Battulga is firmly rooted in Bayankhongor. He emphasizes his rural origins and seemed to rule Bayankhongor as “his” aimag for many years until his electoral defeat in 2016. Bayankhongor is wrecked by wide-spread “ninja” mining, but has benefitted relatively little from large scale industrial mining. His populist streak will likely lead him to question the benefits that nation-wide economic development (including development rooted in mining) will have for aimags that do not benefit directly.

But, his defeat in Bayankhongor call his potential appeal in other non-urban ridings into question. His populism might play well with some voters in Ulaanbaatar, but it will also put off some of their core electorate who still see the DP as a guarantor of democracy and further democratic development. Some of those urban voters may well turn away from all three candidates if loyalty does not persuade them to support Battulga.

Ganbaatar

Ganbaatar was also born in Bayankhongor which further reinforces the sense of two candidates (Genco and Feng Shui) lining up against one front-runner, as two candidates from Bayankhongor against the Ulaanbaatar urbanite.

However, Ganbaatar does not play up his Bayankhongor roots much. His appeal is largely that of a populist who does not even bother to offer simple solutions for complex challenges as so many other populists around the world do, but by asking simplistic questions of complex challenges. His popularity is said to be highest in Ulaanbaatar’s ger districts. His simple questions to complex challenges will play well among some voters, and will offer a chance at a significant protest to others, but it is unclear that he will be able to make in roads with rural voters who have long-standing loyalties to the DP or, more commonly the MVP.

The Impact of Regional Dynamics on the Outcome

The extent to which Ulaanbaatar voters will chose to protest or abstain with their votes may well determine the outcome of the election. If large numbers of urban voters stay away from the polls, Enkhbold’s chances at winning the first round of the election will rise. If urban voters will increase their participation as they did in 2016, a second round seems more likely, and their mobilization may well shape the outcome of that second round.

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Posted in Countryside, Democratic Party, Elections, JD Democratization, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2017 | Tagged | Leave a comment