The Impact of a Quota: Female MPs in the Ikh Khural

This is an extended version of Asia Pacific Memo #168 “Women Part of Major Turnover in Mongolian Parliament”

A trip to the Mongolian countryside quickly produces the impression that women do all the work, waking at dawn to make breakfast for their husband, and waiting for him to lay down before finally retiring themselves. Yet, somehow men seem to remain “in charge”, at least as nominal figureheads; not just in the ger, but also in the political arena. This year the new election law required 20% of candidates in the Mongolian parliamentary elections be women. These affirmative-action-like quota requirements are nothing new and have been implemented at various percentages in different jurisdictions.

The current Parliament, elected without a quota even though this had been initially enacted in 2008, has only three women members our of a total of 76: D Arvin (MPP), S Oyun (CWGP), and D Oyunkhorol (MPP). Together they make up less than 4% of the Parliament.

The election law of 2012 that was passed in anticipation of the election on June 28 contained many new regulations, including the introduction of proportional representation for 28 or the 76 seats. It also specified that a minimum of 20% of the candidates nominated and approved as candidates would have to be women. There is no quota on women parliamentarians, just on the candidates for seats in parliament.

So, what was the impact of this quota on the number of MPs? Looking at the preliminary results for this year’s election, seven women have been elected directly in the 48 first-past-the-post contests: D Oyunkhorol (MPP), Ts Oyungerel (DP), G Uyanga (MPRP), S Odontuya (DP), and  Erdenechimeg (DP). Another four have been elected based on proportional representation: R Burmaa (DP), M Batchimeg (DP), Bayanselenge  (MPRP), and S Oyun (CWGP).  This means that a total of 9 women, or about 12% of the new parliament will be women. If D Arvin (DP) wins the run-off in Bayanzurkh this would mean 10 females MPs

This election proved to be especially challenging for incumbents with the new quotas for women and a new system of proportional representation. In fact, of the five women directly elected, four are newcomers to Parliament, and three of the proportional representatives are also about to enter Parliament for the first time. Additionally, looking at both male and female candidates, we can see that roughly half of the new Parliament will be entering for the first time. This “new blood” has potentially major implications in a country where most people complain that the same politicians are always just circling through office.

Women politicians clearly have made some important gains. Since few parties exceeded the 20% women quota by much, women were elected about as often as you would expect given their inclusion as candidates. However, there is some variability on this among the parties. In scanning the party lists of candidates nominated to be elected via proportional representation, the MPP notably put almost all their women candidates towards the bottom of this list, ensuring that male candidates had a much higher chance of being elected, while women would only have been added had the MPP won in a landslide. Accordingly, only one of the 10 female MPs will be from the MPP, with the possibility of one more following an up-coming run-off election. By contrast, five women will be representing the DP in the Ikh Khural.

With the DP coming into the parliament with most seats and thus likely to be involved in forming a government, the composition of cabinet and assignments to chair standing committees will be the next test of women’s inclusion in political decision-making.

Of the few women in Mongolian politics, several stand out as being especially well-known and respected. One such example is S. Oyun (CWGP). Oyun is the sister of one of the most famous supporters of democracy in the early 1990s – Zorig – whose 1998 murder shocked the nation. Her consistent support of the free market, human rights, and anti-corruption initiatives puts her in a seat of moral authority and trustworthiness that few other Mongolian politicians can command. Oyungerel (DP, seen campaigning in June 2012 on the left) is also well known for her support of human rights and international outlook. She even managed to command more votes than MP L Bold (DP) who was considered a public favourite from early on.

Why have a quota in the first place? One local female politician (see her campaign ad balloon on the right) that we spoke with during our observation of the campaign leading up to the Ulaanbaatar city election that was held in parallel to the parliamentary elections, expressed her opinion that women should “make it on their own”. On one hand, this is the classic response to such affirmative action steps; on the other hand, this is also indicative of a larger wish that quotas were not necessary.

Still, perhaps they will be necessary for some more years until voters can see for themselves the advantages of women politicians. Feminist groups in Mongolia have pointed to lower instances of corruption and caring, maternal instincts as advantages for the country should more women be in politics. Some of us might be tired of such stereotypes, yet what really matters is whether these slogans speak to the Mongolian voter. With more women elected this year, perhaps it is safe to say that we are on the right path to a more equal representation of women among the visible leadership of Mongolia even when many suspect that much of the management of the country is already performed by women.

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Gender, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

NATO and Mongolia

The NATO is finally changing its behaviour towards Mongolia by recognizing its success in democracy and contribution to the peacekeeping operations. Just adding a recent piece on Mongolia and NATO cooperation

Posted in Security Apparatus | Tagged | Leave a comment

ACMS Conference: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Development, Environment, and Political Economy

The American Center for Mongolian Studies is hosting a research conference with the theme “Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Development, Environment, and Political Economy” on July 3rd.

Participants include:
Lauren Bonilla, PhD Candidate, Clark University, Department of Geography
Kirsten Dales, MA Candidate, Royal Roads University Presented by Amarjargal Gungaabayar
Devon Dear, PhD Candidate, Harvard University, Committee on Inner Asian and Altaic Studies
Sara L. Jackson, PhD Candidate, York University, Department of Geography
Alexey Mikhalev, Professor and vice-director of Inner Asia Institute of Buryat State University, Ulan-Ude
Morten Axel Pedersen, Associate Professor of Anthropology, University of CopenhagenVladimir Rodionov, Professor of Political Science at Buryat State University, Ulan-Ude
Marissa Smith, PhD Candidate, Princeton University, Department of Anthropology
Erdenetuya Urtnast, Lecturer, Mongolian State University of Education, Department of Mongolian History

Program (PDF)

Posted in American Center for Mongolian Studies, Development, Environment, Research on Mongolia | Tagged | Leave a comment

Blogging Election News

As we are winding down our somewhat hectic schedule of “covering” the parliamentary election and transitioning to analysing some of its results and thinking about their implications, I do want to note that this blog seems to have been an effective medium for communicating election observations.

Over the past week (June 25 – July 2) more than 2,000 unique visitors have read more than 8,500 pages. I am particularly pleased that more than a third of these visits originated in Mongolia, so that our observations and analysis has apparently proven useful even to people who are “close to the action” already. The third most visitors originated from our own base, Canada.

Two thirds of traffic came via search engines, using search terms like “Mongolia election”, “Mongolia today”, etc. but a large number of visitors also came via referrals, many of them off Twitter.

We still hear back from you, our readers, only very rarely and hope that as we continue to write about contemporary Mongolia, we will begin to meet many more of you in the future.

 

Posted in Ikh Khural 2012, Social Media | Tagged | Leave a comment

Democratic Party wins big in Ulaanbaatar City Council Election

According to shuud.mn, today the Election Committee of the Capital City announced the preliminary results of the 2012 Ulaanbaatar Council Election (Citizens’ Representatives’ Khural).

I wrote about the significance and procedures of this election in my previous post.

The results of the 30 the first-past-the-post seats:

Democratic Party — 20 seats

Mongolian People’s Party — 10 seats.

The results of the party-list elections (parties won over 5% of the votes):

Democratic Party — 35.53% (6 seats)
Mongolian People’s Party — 26.15% (4 seats)
MPRP-MNDP Coalition — 22.77% (4 seats)
Civil Will-Green Party — 8.02% (1 seat)

In total, with 26 seats, the Democratic Party won a solid majority in the Ulaanbaatar City Council.

Posted in Elections, Party Politics, Ulaanbaatar | Tagged | Leave a comment

Seat Distribution Based on Corrected June 30 Preliminary Results

Combining the numbers from the General Election Commission in two previous posts (corrected FPTP and PR), we would arrive at the following seat distribution (relying on GEC figures via news.mn):

Proportional representation:

  • DP 10 seats
  • MPP 9
  • MPRP 7
  • CWGP 2

First-past-the-post:

  • DP 21 seats
  • MPP 19
  • MPRP 4
  • Independent 3

Yielding a total of:

  • DP 31 seats
  • MPP 28
  • MPRP 11
  • Independents 3
  • CWGP 2

Recall that this totals 75 because of the two run-offs one of which is between two MPP candidates.

Numerically possible coalitions to yield a 39 seat majority:

  • DP + MPP = 60 seats (incl. two run-off seats as those only involve the DP & MPP)
  • DP + MPRP = 42 or 43 seats
  • MPP + MPRP = 39 or 40 seats

Independents and CWGP could be added to the above coalitions, of course.

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Politics | Tagged , | 3 Comments

June 30 Preliminary Results II from GEC: First-Past-the-Post

Yesterday, I posted results that were based on a news.mn website that reproduced results announced by the General Election Commission at noon. I was later accused on Twitter to be using wrong information, but neither of the accusers bothered to point me to the right information, unfortunately. As I looked on-line this morning, the page that I based yesterday’s calculations on has disappeared and a new page has appeared in its stead on the news.mn website.

Below I am offering the results based on that new page.

Two candidates came in second or third, respectively, but received less than the minimum required for election (28%, according to Art. 48.4 of the election law). Batzorig for the MPP in 22 – Bayanzurkh, and Erkhembayar for the DP in 26 – Songinokhairkhan. That means, a run-off election for those seats will have to be held. According to Art 48.6,

re-polling referred to in Article 48.4 hereof shall involve candidates with the most votes and double the number of the contested mandate(s)

When there is a single seat that is not won because no one received more than 28% of the vote, we double this single seat (the “contested mandate” in 48.6) and thus conclude that the top two recipients in the voting will be involved in a run-off. [Thanks to Enkhbold Z for pointing me in the right direction on this issue.]

Here it is in English (m=male f=female; tw marks MPs whose Twitter account I have found and listed):

1. Arkhangai
N Batbayar DP m incumb tw
B Bolor DP m new tw

2. Bayan-Olgii
A Telekhan MPP m new
A Bakei DP m new

3. Bayankhongor
Kh Battulga DP m incumb tw
D Ganbat DP m new

4. Bulgan
Y Otgonbayar MPP m incumb tw

5. Gobi-Altai
Ts Dashdorj MPP m new

6. Dorn-Gobi
Sh Batsuur MPP m new

7. Dornod
Kh Bolorchuluun Indep m new
N Nomtoibayar MPP m new tw

8. Dund-Gobi
B Narankhuu DP m incumb tw

9. Zavkhlan
Ya Sanjmyatav DP m new
D Oyunkhorol MPP f incumb

10. Ovorkhangai
S Chinzorig MPP m new
N Tomorkhuu MPP m new

11. Omn-Gobi
D Bat-Erdene DP m new tw

12. Sukhbaatar
M Zorigt DP m new tw

13. Selenge
S Bayartsogt DP m incumb tw
J Erdenebat MPP m new

14. Tov
M Enkhbold MPP m incumb tw
Su Batbold MPP m incumb

15. Uvs
Ch Khurelbaatar MPP m incumb tw
B Choijilsuren MPP m incumb

16. Khovd
S Byambatsogt MPP m incumb tw
D Batsogt MPRP m new

17. Khuvsgul
L Enkh-Amgalan MPP m new
N Davaasuren Indep m new

18. Khentii
B Bat-Erdene MPP m incumb
B Garamgaibaatar DP m new

19. Darkhan-Uul
S Ganbaatar Indep m new tw
D Khayankhyarvaa MPP m incumb tw

20. Orkhon
O Sodbileg MPP m new
L Tsog MPRP m new

21. Khan-Uul
Ts Oyungerel DP f new tw
Lu Bold DP m incumb tw

22. Bayanzurkh
J Batzandan DP m new tw
D Gankhuyag DP m incumb tw
B Batsorig MPP m new [Note: not elected, requires run-off against D Arvin MPP f incumb tw]

23. Sukhbaatar
Lu Gantumur DP m incumb tw
R Amarjargal DP m incum tw

24. Chingeltei
G Uyanga MPRP f new
G Bayarsaikhan DP m incumb

25. Bayangol
S Erdene DP m incumb
S Odontuya DP f  new tw

26. Songinokhairkhan
D Terbishdagva MPRP m incumb
L Erdenechimeg DP f new
L Erkhembayar DP m new tw [Note: not elected, requires run-off against Sumiyabazar MPP m new ]

All that would add up to DP 21, MPP 19, MPRP 4, Independent 3, with two seats unfilled awaiting a run-off election, but one of those involves two MPP candidates, so it is included in the MPP seat total here.

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Getting Yelled at Over Election Results

Earlier today, two Tweeps were clearly upset about some part of my tweets about our estimate of the seat distribution for the Mongolian parliament.

D Amarbayasgalan whose Twitter profile identifies him as a local MPRP director, wrote,

шал худлаа прогноз байна

Accusing me – and apparently by association, MPP Enkhbold Z, MPP, of being totally wrong. As I have been careful to identify all the sources for our calculations and the different steps in our calculations, I was genuinely interested in finding out which part of these estimates may have been wrong and replied,

худлаа? ямар? If I made a mistake in calculations, please tell me, they are all at https://blogs.ubc.ca/mongolia/category/politics/elections/ikh-khural-2012/

Now, six hours ago, Amarbayasgalan has not replied to my question, nor pointed out any mistakes in our calculations.

Shortly thereafter, Odbayar, who identifies himself as an “Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mongolia”, tweeted

You have wrong information!please follow election commission information.

Again, concerned about mistakes in the calculations, I replied,

 I based numbers on http://songuuli.news.mn/content/112922.shtml which is based on GEC info, isn’t it? Did news.mn not reproduce GEC numbers faithfully?

I have not had a reply to this question six hours later either.

Disagreeing with a calculation or a political view (which I don’t have when it comes to Mongolian parties) is one thing, but asserting for information to be wrong or of using wrong information, but then not pointing out where mistakes may lie, is neither professional, nor conducive to sharing the most accurate information available.

Posted in Democracy, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Politics, Social Media | Tagged | 3 Comments

Seat Distribution Based on June 30 Preliminary Results

Combining the numbers from the General Election Commission in two previous posts (FPTP and PR), we would arrive at the following seat distribution (relying on GEC figures but excluding run-off seats):

Proportional representation:

  • DP 10 seats
  • MPP 9
  • MPRP 7
  • CWGP 2

First-past-the-post:

  • DP 21 seats
  • MPP 17
  • MPRP 4
  • Independent 3

Yielding a total of:

  • DP 31 seats
  • MPP 26
  • MPRP 11
  • Independents 3
  • CWGP 2

Recall that this totals 73 because of the three run-offs.

Numerically possible coalitions to yield a 39 seat majority:

  • DP + MPP = 57 seats
  • DP + MPRP = 42 seats
  • MPP + MPRP = 37 seats [this would only be a 39 seat majority if the two leading MPP candidates win their run-off]

Independents and CWGP could be added to the above coalitions, of course.

 

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

June 30 Preliminary Results from GEC: Proportional Representation

In its 12h press conference, the GEC announced a preliminary breakdown for the party vote that will determine the share of proportional representation in 28 seats.

The following parties cleared the 5% minimum vote share that is necessary to be included in the proportional representation distribution of seats:

  • Democratic Party – 399,194 – 35,32%
  • Mongolian People’s Party  – 353839 – 31,31%
  • Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (“Justice” coalition with Mongolian National Democratic Party) – 252077 – 22,31%
  • Civil Green Will Party  – 62310 – 5,51%

The exact distribution of seats is not only still dependent on final vote reports coming in, but also on a recalculation of the exact percentages of the total number of votes that will be used to determine the seats distributed according to proportional representation (see below for an excerpt from the relevant law).

This gives us adjusted percentages that include the votes for parties under 5% redistributed to the four parties over 5%:

  • DP 37.28%
  • MPP 32.93%
  • MPRP 23.46%
  • CWGP 5.79%

We can then use these percentages to distribute the 28 seats reserved for the party lists.

  • DP 10 seats (10.44)
  • MPP 9 (9.22)
  • MPRP 7 (6.57)
  • CWGP 2 (1.62)

Please note that this is, once again, a home-made calculation and while I have tried to apply the specification offered in the election law, I do not have total confidence in this calculation. For example, you will note that the adjusted percentages above don’t add up to 100%. I suspect that this may be because further parties received some votes and perhaps invalid ballots were also included in some of the calculation, but not other parts. If you have any insights on this, please do offer your comment.

Art 49 of the election law (available from Asian Network for Free Elections) states:

Article 49. Sum-up of outcomes of election, allocation of seats, and reporting

49.1. The General Election Commission shall sum up the outcomes of the election delivered by district committees pursuant to Article 48 hereof nationwide and allocate seats for parties and coalitions in the following manner.
49.1.1. To calculate the total number of all votes obtained by each party and coalition and make a slate (hereinafter referred to as “slate “B””) by arranging parties and coalitions that have obtained at least five percent of all votes obtained by all parties and coalitions in order of percentages of votes they have obtained;
49.1.2. To distribute percentage of all votes obtained by parties and coalitions that have failed  to pass the five-percent threshold set forth in Article 49.1.1 hereof proportionally and add them to percentage of votes obtained by each party and coalition included in slate “B;”
49.1.3. To calculate a percentage per seat by dividing the sum of percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions and included in slate “B” set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by 28; and
49.1.4. To distribute 28 seats of Members of Parliament (State Great Hural) proportionally based on the principle of big remainder by dividing percentages of votes of each party and coalition included in slate “B” and set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by the percentage per seat set forth in Article 49.1.3 hereof.

Notes: “Proportional distribution according to the principle of bid remainder” means completion of distribution of all seats through distribution of seats that equal whole parts in the first place after calculation of the number of seats in fractions allocated for percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions, and distribution of additional seats for parties and coalitions one by one starting from those that have big remainders or fractional parts in the event of undistributed seats.

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party | Tagged , | 2 Comments

June 30 Preliminary Results from GEC: First-Past-the-Post

At 12h this afternoon the General Election Commission held another press conference to update the election results, reproduced on the news.mn website.

Three candidates came in second or third, respectively, but received less than the minimum required for election (28%, according to Art. 48.4 of the election law). That means, a run-off election for that seat will have to be held. According to Art 48.6,

re-polling referred to in Article 48.4 hereof shall involve candidates with the most votes and double the number of the contested mandate(s)

When there is a single seat that is not won because no one received more than 28% of the vote, we double this single seat (the “contested mandate” in 48.6) and thus conclude that the top two recipients in the voting will be involved in a run-off. [Thanks to Enkhbold Z for pointing me in the right direction on this issue.]

Here it is in English (m=male f=female; tw marks MPs whose Twitter account I have found and listed):

1. Arkhangai
N Batbayar DP m incumb tw
B Bolor DP f new tw

2. Bayan-Olgii
A Tleikhan MPP m new
A Bakei DP m new

3. Bayankhongor
Kh Battulga DP m incumb tw
D Ganbat DP m new

4. Bulgan
Y Otgonbayar MPP m incumb tw

5. Gobi-Altai
Ts Dashdorj MPP m new

6. Dorn-Gobi
Sh Batsuur MPP m new

7. Dornod
Kh Bolorchuluun Indep f new
N Nomtoibayar MPP m new tw

8. Dund-Gobi
B Narankhuu DP m incumb tw

9. Zavkhlan
Ya Tsanjmyatav DP m new
D Oyunkhorol MPP f incumb

10. Ovorkhangai
S Chinzorig MPP m new
N Tomorkhuu MPP m new

11. Omn-Gobi
D Bat-Erdene DP m new tw

12. Sukhbaatar
M Zorigt DP m new tw

13. Selenge
S Bayartsogt DP incumb tw
J Erdenebat MPP new

14. Tov
M Enkhbold MPP m incumb tw
Su Batbold MPP m incumb

15. Uvs
Ch Khurelbaatar MPP m incumb tw
B Choijilsuren MPP m incumb

16. Khovd
S Byambatsogt MPP m incumb tw
D Batsogt MPRP m new

17. Khuvsgul
L Enkh-Amgalan MPP m new
N Davaasuren Indep m new

18. Khentii
B Bat-Erdene MPP m incumb
B Garamgaibaatar DP m new

19. Darkhan-Uul
S Ganbaatar Indep m new tw
[D Khayankhyarvaa MPP m incumb tw Note: not elected, requires run-off]

20. Orkhon
O Sodbileg MPP m new
L Tsog MPRP m new

21. Khan-Uul
Ts Oyungerel DP f new tw
Lu Bold DP m incumb tw

22. Bayanzurkh
J Batzandan DP m new tw
D Gankhuyag DP m incumb tw
B Batsorig MPP m new [Note: not elected, requires run-off]

23. Sukhbaatar
Lu Gantumur DP m incumb tw
R Amarjargal DP m incum tw

24. Bayangol
S Erdene DP m incumb
S Odontuya DP f  new tw

25. Songinokhairkhan
D Terbishdagva MPRP m incumb
L Erdenechimeg DP f new
L Erkhembayar DP m new tw [Note: not elected, requires run-off]

26. Chingeltei
G Uyanga MPRP f new
G Bayarsaikhan DP m incumb

All that would add up to DP 21, MPP 17, MPRP 4, Independent 3, with three seats unfilled awaiting a run-off election.

Posted in Civil Will Green Party, Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Seat Distribution based on Preliminary Results

Combining the numbers from the General Election Commission in two previous posts (FPTP and PR), we would arrive at the following seat distribution (relying on the earlier DP estimates of first-past-the-post races where the GEC didn’t want to call these races yet):

Proportional representation:

  • DP 10 seats
  • MPP 9
  • MPRP 7
  • CWGP 2

First-past-the-post:

  • DP 22 seats
  • MPP 19
  • MPRP 4
  • Independent 3

Yielding a total of:

  • DP 32 seats
  • MPP 28
  • MPRP 11
  • Independents 3
  • CWGP 2

Numerically possible coalitions to yield a 39 seat majority:

  • DP + MPP = 60 seats
  • DP + MPRP = 43 seats
  • MPP + MPRP = 39 seats [thanks to a sharp-eyed reader for pointing this out to me]

Independents and CWGP could be added to the above coalitions, of course.

Not that these numbers are built not on the GEC numbers, but on the GEC numbers + results given by the DP, though only for the races that the GEC didn’t call. Shifts of all numbers are thus still quite possible.

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Party Politics | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Preliminary Results from the General Election Commission: Proportional Representation

In its 15h press conference, the GEC also announced a preliminary breakdown for the party vote that will determine the share of proportional representation in 28 seats.

The following parties cleared the 5% minimum vote share that is necessary to be included in the proportional representation distribution of seats:

  • Democratic Party – 392259 votes – 32,24%
  • Mongolian People’s Party  – 345212 – 28,38%
  • Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (“Justice” coalition with Mongolian National Democratic Party) – 249479 – 20,51%
  • Civil Green Will Party  – 61886 – 5,9%

The exact distribution of seats is not only still dependent on final vote reports coming in, but also on a recalculation of the exact percentages of the total number of votes that will be used to determine the seats distributed according to proportional representation (see below for an excerpt from the relevant law). 

This gives us adjusted percentages that include the votes for parties under 5% redistributed to the four parties over 5%:

  • DP 34.89%
  • MPP 30.7%
  • MPRP 23.27%
  • CWGP 6.18%

We can then use these percentages to distribute the 28 seats reserved for the party lists.

  • DP 10 seats (9.77)
  • MPP 9 (8.6)
  • MPRP 7 (6.52)
  • CWGP 2 (1.73)

Please note that this is a home-made calculation and while I have tried to apply the specification offered in the election law, I do not have total confidence in this calculation. For example, you will note that the adjusted percentages above don’t add up to 100%. I suspect that this may be because further parties received some votes and perhaps invalid ballots were also included in some of the calculation, but not other parts. If you have any insights on this, please do offer your comment.

Art 49 of the election law (available from Asian Network for Free Elections) states:

Article 49. Sum-up of outcomes of election, allocation of seats, and reporting

49.1. The General Election Commission shall sum up the outcomes of the election delivered by district committees pursuant to Article 48 hereof nationwide and allocate seats for parties and coalitions in the following manner.
49.1.1. To calculate the total number of all votes obtained by each party and coalition and make a slate (hereinafter referred to as “slate “B””) by arranging parties and coalitions that have obtained at least five percent of all votes obtained by all parties and coalitions in order of percentages of votes they have obtained;
49.1.2. To distribute percentage of all votes obtained by parties and coalitions that have failed  to pass the five-percent threshold set forth in Article 49.1.1 hereof proportionally and add them to percentage of votes obtained by each party and coalition included in slate “B;”
49.1.3. To calculate a percentage per seat by dividing the sum of percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions and included in slate “B” set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by 28; and
49.1.4. To distribute 28 seats of Members of Parliament (State Great Hural) proportionally based on the principle of big remainder by dividing percentages of votes of each party and coalition included in slate “B” and set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by the percentage per seat set forth in Article 49.1.3 hereof.

Notes: “Proportional distribution according to the principle of bid remainder” means completion of distribution of all seats through distribution of seats that equal whole parts in the first place after calculation of the number of seats in fractions allocated for percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions, and distribution of additional seats for parties and coalitions one by one starting from those that have big remainders or fractional parts in the event of undistributed seats.

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012 | Tagged | 1 Comment

Preliminary Results from General Election Commission: First Past the Post

At 15h this afternoon the General Election Commission held a seemingly interminable press conference announcing preliminary election results. These results continue to be preliminary as some counts have not come in from all election machines (87 counts still missing as of the press conference). I have used these preliminary results that also appear on the news.mn website to update the list of winners of first-past-the-post races that were announced by the DP earlier.

Here it is in English (with many thanks to Batbileg for contributing gender info, m=male f=female; tw marks MPs whose Twitter account I have found and listed):

1. Arkhangai
N Batbayar DP m incumb tw
B Bolor DP f new tw

2. Bayan-Olgii
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
A Bakei DP m new
A Tleikhan MPP m new]

3. Bayankhongor
Kh Battulga DP m incumb tw
D Ganbat DP m new

4. Bulgan
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
Y Otgonbayar MPP m incumb tw]

5. Gobi-Altai
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
Ts Damdorj MPP m new]

6. Dorn-Gobi
Sh Batsuur MPP m new

7. Dornod
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
N Nomtoibayar MPP m new tw
Kh Bolorchuluun Indep f new]

8. Dund-Gobi
B Narankhuu DP m incumb tw

9. Zavkhlan
Ya Tsanjmyatav DP m new
D Oyunkhorol MPP f incumb

10. Ovorkhangai
S Chinzorig MPP m new
N Tomorkhuu MPP m new

11. Omn-Gobi
D Bat-Erdene DP m new tw

12. Sukhbaatar
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
M Zorigt DP m new tw]

13. Selenge
S Bayartsogt DP incumb tw
J Erdenebat MPP new

14. Tov
M Enkhbold MPP m incumb tw
Su Batbold MPP m incumb

15. Uvs
Ch Khurelbaatar MPP m incumb tw
B Choijilsuren MPP m incumb

16. Khovd
S Byambatsogt MPP m incumb tw
D Batsogt MPRP m new

17. Khuvsgul
L Enkh-Amgalan MPP m new
N Davaasuren Indep m new

18. Khentii
B Bat-Erdene MPP m incumb
B Garamgaibaatar DP m new

19. Darkhan-Uul
S Ganbaatar Indep m new tw
D Khayankhyarvaa MPP m incumb tw

20. Orkhon
O Sodbileg MPP m new
L Tsog MPRP m new

21. Khan-Uul
Lu Bold DP m incumb tw
Ts Oyungerel DP f new tw

22. Bayanzurkh
J Batzandan DP m new tw
D Gankhuyag DP m incumb tw
B Batsorig MPP m new

23. Sukhbaatar
Lu Gantumur DP m incumb tw
R Amarjargal DP m incum tw

24. Bayangol
S Erdene DP m incumb
S Odontuya DP f  new tw

25. Songinokhairkhan
D Terbishdagva MPRP m incumb
L Erdenechimeg DP f new
L Erkhembayar DP m new tw

26. Chingeltei
G Uyanga MPRP f new
G Bayarsaikhan DP m incumb

All that would add up to DP 20, MPP 15, MPRP 4, Independent 2, using the GEC figures, including their lack of a call on 7 seats.

Combining the GEC figures with the earlier DP estimates would yield DP 22, MPP 19, MPRP 4, Independent 3.

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012 | Tagged | 1 Comment

DP Calling Races for Majoritarian Seats

Shortly after 9h this morning, the DP’s Saikhanbileg, head of its parliamentary faction, listed the results of the 48 first-past-the-post seats that are up for grabs. News.mn has the list in Mongolian.

Here it is in English (with many thanks to Batbileg for contributing gender info, m=male f=female; tw marks MPs whose Twitter account I have found and listed):

1. Arkhangai
N Batbayar DP m incumb tw B Bolor DP f new tw

2. Bayan-Olgii
A Bakei DP m new
A Tleikhan MPP m new

3. Bayankhongor
Kh Battulga DP m incumb tw
D Ganbat DP m new

4. Bulgan
Y Otgonbayar MPP m incumb tw

5. Gobi-Altai
Ts Damdorj MPP m new

6. Dorn-Gobi
Sh Batsuur MPP m new

7. Dornod
N Nomtoibayar MPP m new tw
Kh Bolorchuluun Indep f new

8. Dund-Gobi
B Narankhuu DP m incumb tw

9. Zavkhlan
Ya Tsanjmyatav DP m new
D Oyunkhorol MPP f incumb

10. Ovorkhangai
S Chinzorig MPP m new
N Tomorkhuu MPP m new

11. Omn-Gobi
D Bat-Erdene DP m new

12. Sukhbaatar
M Zorigt DP m new tw

13. Selenge
S Bayartsogt DP incumb tw
J Erdenebat MPP new

14. Tov
M Enkhbold MPP m incumb tw
Su Batbold MPP m incumb

15. Uvs
Ch Khurelbaatar MPP m incumb tw
B Choijilsuren MPP m incumb

16. Khovd
S Byambatsogt MPP m incumb tw
D Batsogt MPRP m new

17. Khuvsgul
L Enkh-Amgalan MPP m new
N Davaasuren Indep m new

18. Khentii
B Bat-Erdene MPP m incumb
B Garamgaibaatar DP m new

19. Darkhan-Uul
S Ganbaatar Indep m new tw
D Khayankhyarvaa MPP m incumb tw

20. Orkhon
O Sodbileg MPP m new
L Tsog MPRP m new

21. Khan-Uul
Lu Bold DP m incumb tw
Ts Oyungerel DP f new tw

22. Bayanzurkh
J Batzandan DP m new tw
D Gankhuyag DP m incumb tw
I Narantuya DP f new

23. Sukhbaatar
Lu Gantumur DP m incumb tw
R Amarjargal DP m incum tw

24. Bayangol
S Odontuya DP f  new tw
S Erdene DP m incumb

25. Songinokhairkhan
L Erdenechimeg DP f new
L Erkhembayar DP m new tw
D Terbishdagva MPRP m incumb

26. Chingeltei
G Bayarsaikhan DP m incumb
D Zorigt MPP m incumb tw

All that would add up to DP 23, MPP 19, MPRP 3, Independent 3

Posted in Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Mongolian People's Party | Tagged | 1 Comment